IronMan
15 years ago
I'm in!
Nonstopdrivel
15 years ago
Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird.
UserPostedImage
Zero2Cool
15 years ago
Wow, nearly 20 ... keep'em coming ... pussies. 🙂
UserPostedImage
TheEngineer
15 years ago

Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



That's because the left column is the favourites and the right is the underdogs!
blank
djcubez
15 years ago

Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird.

"TheEngineer" wrote:



That's because the left column is the favourites and the right is the underdogs!

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:


Yea, no reason for underdog picks in the first week, nobody really knows what's up.
Nonstopdrivel
15 years ago
Last year I read an article (it might have been Gregg Easterbrook's "Tuesday Morning Quarterback" -- I can't remember) in which it was stated that over the course of the entire season, the following simple system has beaten the picks of virtually every pundit out there. For every game:

1) Pick the team with the better record.

2) In case of a tie, pick the home team.

Sounds oversimplified, and it is, but the beauty of it is it plays the odds, doesn't overthink the nuances, and doesn't jump on bandwagons.

Obviously, this isn't an optimal strategy for week 1, when you have no prior information, but its success improves dramatically as the season progresses.

If I remember correctly, no pundit in the past few years has exceeded a 70% correct pick rate, and I don't think many get above 60%. Some of the most famous score an abysmal 25% or less! The strategy above is rarely beat by more than one nationally known pundit.
UserPostedImage
Nonstopdrivel
15 years ago
So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona?
UserPostedImage
djcubez
15 years ago

So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona?

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:


My roommate is in a $50 pool every week with his family and he got it this week with his Denver over Cincinatti pick. I was actually close to picking San Francisco over Arizona just because I thought Mike Singletary is really changing the culture over there. I didn't do it though :/
Rockmolder
15 years ago

So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona?

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



I went Cinci over Denver. So did the Ninja and beingBOILEDhurts (Forgot who you are).

The one pick that everyone got wrong was, like you said, 49ers over Arizona. Shouldn't have taken that gamble on Miami, though. They got their ass handed to them by the Falcons.

Don't know if you found it, but you can see everyone's previous picks here.

http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/22111/grouppicks?week=1 
Zero2Cool
15 years ago
DOMINATION!!
UserPostedImage
Fan Shout
Zero2Cool (10h) : Both LB Quay Walker and Rookie DB Micah Robinson have passed their physicals
Zero2Cool (10h) : Happy to see site feels more snappy snappy
Zero2Cool (10h) : No sir. I did not.
dfosterf (11h) : You didn't get free childcare when you were at work?
wpr (11h) : These guys make hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. Pay for their own childcare.
dfosterf (12h) : 2nd issue. Number 1 issue was no gameday childcare. 1 of 3 teams not providing it
Zero2Cool (12h) : Suppose if locker room is main issue, we sitting pretty
wpr (12h) : I thought so Mucky. In those useless player polls GB always rates high overall. Locker is a part of it.
Mucky Tundra (13h) : Wasn't the locker room just updated like 6 or 7 years ago?
Zero2Cool (14h) : I have forum updated on different site. We'll see how this one goes before going to that
Zero2Cool (14h) : Elgton Jenkins has a back injury, is expect to end contract dispute
wpr (17h) : It's funny the PA complained about the locker room. It wasn't that long ago it was top shelf. Things change in a hurry.
wpr (17h) : The site is much more better.
Zero2Cool (17h) : NFLPA report said Packers lockerroom needed upgrade. Whining bout where you change?
Zero2Cool (17h) : I saw that and thought it was kind of lame.
dfosterf (17h) : Packers new locker room is pretty awesome. Great for morale, imo
Zero2Cool (17h) : Shuffled things on the web server. Hope it makes it faster.
Zero2Cool (18h) : Other times, it's turtle ass
Zero2Cool (18h) : Sometimes it's snappy, like now.
beast (19h) : I feel like it's loading at the top of the next minute, or something like that.
beast (19h) : Also the thanks/heart takes FOREVER to load, and posting in the shout box takes three times FOREVER!
beast (19h) : Thanks for saying something, I thought it was slow, but assumed it was on my end
beast (19h) : Thanks for saying something, I thought it was slow, but assumed it was on my end
Zero2Cool (19h) : Yeah, I noticed that too. Is it slow for PackerPeople.com too?
wpr (19h) : I don't know what you IT guys call it but the page loading is very slow for me today.
Zero2Cool (20h) : SSL might be settled now.
Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : Still working through SSL cert issues
wpr (23-Jul) : Glad to be back
Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : I think PH original finally working.
dfosterf (22-Jul) : Can tell you are having a fun day Kev
Zero2Cool (22-Jul) : Yep, I had to manually move them. It'll fix itself after more posts.
Mucky Tundra (22-Jul) : Same deal with the songs/videos thread, says you replied last but when I go there it's what I posted earlier is last
Zero2Cool (22-Jul) : I had to manually move three posts.
Mucky Tundra (22-Jul) : But when I go it, Martha's is the last reply
Mucky Tundra (22-Jul) : Still a little screwy; it shows on the main forum that you were the last person to reply to the Jenkins trade thread
Zero2Cool (22-Jul) : Host issues, been crazy day
Mucky Tundra (22-Jul) : Connect 4?
Zero2Cool (22-Jul) : Connecting to new database
Zero2Cool (22-Jul) : What the hell
beast (22-Jul) : Packershome going to the Whiteout unis again
Zero2Cool (21-Jul) : Oh wait, they got Cam Ward. 1st overall right? haha oops
Zero2Cool (21-Jul) : They could send Packers a 1st for a QB they are familiar with
Zero2Cool (21-Jul) : Titans QB Will Levis to have season-ending shoulder surgery
Zero2Cool (19-Jul) : Their season did kind of start there, so 🤷
dfosterf (19-Jul) : Eagles put an engraved Brazil flag on their super bowl rings
Zero2Cool (18-Jul) : Benton unsigned no more
Zero2Cool (17-Jul) : That's good analysis, yes you are getting old. It'd a blessing!
dfosterf (14-Jul) : *analysis* gettin' old
dfosterf (14-Jul) : One of the best analyisis I"ve ever watched at this time of an offseason
dfosterf (14-Jul) : Andy Herman interviewed Warren Sharp on his Pack a day podcast
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2025 Packers Schedule
Sunday, Sep 7 @ 3:25 PM
LIONS
Thursday, Sep 11 @ 7:15 PM
COMMANDERS
Sunday, Sep 21 @ 12:00 PM
Browns
Sunday, Sep 28 @ 7:20 PM
Cowboys
Sunday, Oct 12 @ 3:25 PM
BENGALS
Sunday, Oct 19 @ 3:25 PM
Cardinals
Sunday, Oct 26 @ 7:20 PM
Steelers
Sunday, Nov 2 @ 12:00 PM
PANTHERS
Monday, Nov 10 @ 7:15 PM
EAGLES
Sunday, Nov 16 @ 12:00 PM
Giants
Sunday, Nov 23 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Thursday, Nov 27 @ 12:00 PM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 7 @ 12:00 PM
BEARS
Sunday, Dec 14 @ 3:25 PM
Broncos
Friday, Dec 19 @ 11:00 PM
Bears
Friday, Dec 26 @ 11:00 PM
RAVENS
Saturday, Jan 3 @ 11:00 PM
Vikings
Recent Topics
1h / Around The NFL / beast

3h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

5h / Around The NFL / Mucky Tundra

8h / Green Bay Packers Talk / bboystyle

9h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

9h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

19h / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

23-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

22-Jul / Random Babble / Zero2Cool

22-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

22-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

20-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

20-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

18-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

15-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2025 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.