I'm pretty sure I'm in the minority on this one.
I think there's a definite "it depends" aspect to things. Yes, the Lions went 4-0 in preseason last year, but how did they look while doing so? Not dominant, IMO.
Obviously, the preseason isn't a truly dependable barometer for the upcoming season - but I don't think it's worthless by any means.
To me, the important parts of preseason games are the beginning, when both teams have their front-line (for the majority) starters on the field. How does your first team stack up against the opponent? As I stated in another thread, you play the guys lined up across from you, and if you beat them, that's good. Thus far in this preseason, the Packers' first team has dominated the other team on the field. They haven't just been a little bit better, they've totally dominated them.
So what does that tell us?
- First and foremost, it gives an indication of how prepared and motivated the team is. The Packers have been flying around and hitting like bad mofos so far this year - that isn't dependent on the other team, it's simple, observable fact.
- You can also get a sense of how team chemistry is going - for instance, all indications are the Rodgers and the receivers are more in sync than they were last year. This is a good thing.
- In the specific case of the Packers this year, it's a good yardstick to see how the transition to the 3-4 is going - and we're happily learning that it's going pretty well. No, the Browns and Bills aren't the best teams in the league, but they're professional football offenses, and our new 3-4 clearly rattled the hell out of both teams.
I think you can learn a lot about a team from the preseason - no, it's not some guarantee for success once the regular season starts, but it tells a lot.
Put differently, do I know that the Packers will do well this year, based off of two early preseason performances? Hell, no. Do I have a better sense of their overall readiness to play? Yep. Do I have a sense of how the offensive chemistry is progressing? Yep. Do I have a sense of how the transition to the 3-4 is going? Sure do.
It's like anything else - there are 20% on either end of the spectrum, one end is yelling "We're going to the Super Bowl!" and the other is yelling "We know nothing! The Browns and Bills suck!*" Both ends are a little crazy, and the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
*I would like to point out that I find it humorous that the very people who caution against optimism with statements like "you can't tell how a team is in preseason" are the ones who are so quick to do just that with teams like the Browns and the Bills. How'd the Falcons look last preseason? Anyone remember? Point is, if you don't know, then
you don't know. Can't have it both ways.