beast
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a year ago
12 bold predictions for the NFC North

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-bold-predictions-every-nfl-team-2023-nfc-north 

GREEN BAY PACKERS
1. Romeo Doubs breaks out
The Romeo Doubs hype from this time last year wasn’t a mirage; it just came a year too early. Doubs has been tearing up training camp and joint scrimmages, as well as playing solid in preseason games. He is a good receiver, but the expectations last preseason spiraled out of control and he couldn’t meet them — particularly not after suffering injury. This season, Doubs will break out as an excellent receiver and a reliable target for Jordan Love.

2. Luke Musgrave threatens 1,000 yards as a rookie
Rookie tight ends don’t tend to get 1,000 receiving yards, even in this era of 17 games and expansive passing games. It’s happened twice,, and one of them was Mike Ditka in 1961. Musgrave likely won’t surpass 1,000 yards, but he might push it very close, judging by how the team has been deploying him in training camp and his receiving skill set. He has all of the physical tools, and the Packers have been using him on things like jet sweeps that typically aren’t drawn up for tight ends. Musgrave averaged 3.4 yards per route run across just two games last season at Oregon State before injury shut him down, but he looked primed for a monster year.

3. Green Bay’s defense improves into the top ten
A season ago, expectations were that it would be the best Packers defense that Aaron Rodgers had ever played with. Instead, the team finished 21st in expected points added per play allowed and 26th in yards per play. The underlying reasons for optimism are still there, however, and there’s every chance that the unit dramatically outperforms the results from a season ago. The Packers have multiple capable edge rushers, cornerbacks and linebackers and can make impacts against the run and the pass. This is a unit that has top-10 potential.



CHICAGO BEARS
1. Linebacker T.J. Edwards earns a better PFF grade than Tremaine Edmunds
The Chicago Bears spent last season clearing salary cap space and stripping the roster, including a high-end off-ball linebacker (Roquan Smith), only to make that spot their top spending priority this offseason. Tremaine Edmunds was signed coming off a career year in Buffalo, but so was T.J. Edwards to a much more modest contract. Edwards has none of the physical gifts that Edmunds possesses and has had to succeed in the NFL the hard way, but he has consistently done so. Don’t be shocked if Edwards looks very good next to his highly paid teammate and posts a better PFF grade.

2. Justin Fields improves his PFF passing grade by 20-plus points
Fields had to do everything by himself in 2022. He wasn’t able to drag the Bears to many wins, but he was the only reason the offense moved the ball most of the time. It relied largely on his rushing ability, with some big passing plays sprinkled in. This offseason, the Bears got him some serious help, and we should see it pay immediate dividends in his passing production and efficiency. Fields posted just a 54.4 PFF passing grade last season. A 20-point jump would have placed him just inside the top 15.

3. Chicago still fields the worst defensive line in the league
The Bears recorded the lowest pressure rate in the league last season by a considerable margin, and their defensive line was simply bereft of viable talent. They attacked the unit in the draft and later signed Yannick Ngakoue to try and address that, but it still looks like a glaring weakness unless those rookies are able to outperform expectations right away. Ngakoue is the team’s only proven pass rusher, and his PFF pass-rushing grade has been declining for three straight seasons across four different teams.



DETROIT LIONS
1. Jahmyr Gibbs sees 70-plus targets as a rookie
Eight running backs saw 70 or more targets in 2022. Gibbs raised eyebrows when he was drafted as high as he was, given how the league currently treats the running back position, but from the outset, the Lions have been talking about him more as a playmaker without portfolio than a running back. In training camp, Gibbs has been split wide and in the slot regularly. He could feature as a major outlet in the passing game.

2. The Lions win the NFC North
It’s time to embrace the change in narrative and enjoy being seen as favorites. The Lions were everybody’s dark horse for a playoff spot a year ago, and while they came agonizingly close, they fell short. This time, they’re the division favorites for real, and with good reason. They retained key pieces and added potential immediate improvements in the draft and free agency. Now is the time to prove to people the hype is justified.

3. Detroit's offensive line rivals Philadelphia’s for the best in the league
A year ago, I predicted that the Lions would have a top-five offensive line in the NFL. They hit that level at times — four separate times in PFF’s weekly offensive line rankings — but injuries hampered the group and kept them from their true potential. The interior was a permanent revolving door that will hopefully be an entirely different story this season. If the group stays healthy, they have the potential to be hard on Philadelphia’s heels as the best line in football.



MINNESOTA VIKINGS
1. Christian Darrisaw makes All-Pro at left tackle
Christian Darrisaw broke out a season ago and may have had a solid All-Pro case if concussions hadn’t kept him out of three games. He posted a 90.3 overall PFF grade, trailing only Trent Williams, and was dominant as a run blocker. He didn’t allow a sack until he ran into Micah Parsons in Week 11, and he looks to be still improving. With another small step, Darrisaw will be one of the best linemen in the game.

2. Jordan Addison makes a strong Offensive Rookie of the Year case
Each year, there are players the draft community overthinks because of measurables. Jordan Addison has stood out as the best receiver on the field at two different schools during his college career, but he posted pedestrian measurables and average timed speed. He slipped deep into the first round yet has been consistently proving that elite play translates well throughout training camp and preseason. Addison averaged at least 2.9 yards per route run in each of his last two years in college. Expect him to produce right away with Justin Jefferson taking the bulk of defenses' attention.

3. The defense remains a bottom-third unit
Changing schemes will likely help the Vikings' defense, regardless of what it is changing to. Such was the rut the unit got into in 2022. It won’t, however, completely paper over the significant cracks in personnel that have emerged. The Vikings' cornerback room looks like one of the weakest in the league on paper, and they will need a huge bounce-back year from Danielle Hunter or a true breakout from Marcus Davenport for the defensive line not to be a weakness. They may improve, but it’s tough to see how it can take a huge leap.


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Fan Shout
packerfanoutwest (14m) : both games Watson missed, Packers won
Martha Careful (2h) : I hope all of you have a Merry Christmas!
Mucky Tundra (12h) : Oh I know about Jacobs, I just couldn't pass up an opportunity to mimic Zero lol
buckeyepackfan (12h) : Jacobs was just sat down, Watson re-injured that knee that kept him out 1 game earlier
buckeyepackfan (12h) : I needed .14 that's. .14 points for the whole 4th quarter to win and go to the SB. Lol
Mucky Tundra (12h) : Jacobs gonna be OK???
Zero2Cool (12h) : Watson gonna be OK???
packerfanoutwest (15h) : Inactives tonight for the Pack: Alexander- knee Bullard - ankle Williams - quad Walker -ankle Monk Heath
packerfanoutwest (15h) : No Jaire, but hopefully the front 7 destroys the line of scrimmage & forces Rattler into a few passes to McKinney.
packerfanoutwest (16h) : minny could be #1 seed and the Lions #5 seed
Zero2Cool (18h) : We'd have same Division and Conference records. Strength of schedule we edge them
Zero2Cool (18h) : I just checked. What tie breaker?
bboystyle (18h) : yes its possible but unlikely. If we do get the 5th, we face the NFCS winner
Zero2Cool (18h) : Ahh, ok.
bboystyle (18h) : yes due to tie breaker
Zero2Cool (18h) : I mean, unlikely, yes, but mathematically, 5th is possible by what I'm reading.
Zero2Cool (18h) : If Vikings lose out, Packers win out, Packers get 5th, right?
bboystyle (18h) : Minny isnt going to lose out so 5th seed is out of the equation. We are playing for the 6th or 7th seed which makes no difference
Mucky Tundra (19h) : beast, the ad revenue goes to the broadcast company but they gotta pay to air the game on their channel/network
beast (20h) : If we win tonight the game is still relative in terms of 5th, 6th or 7th seed... win and it's 5th or 6th, lose and it's 6th or 7th
beast (20h) : Mucky, I thought the ad revenue went to the broadcasting companies or the NFL, at least not directly
Zero2Cool (20h) : I think the revenue share is moot, isn't it? That's the CBA an Salary Cap handling that.
bboystyle (20h) : i mean game becomes irrelevant if we win tonight. Just a game where we are trying to play spoilers to Vikings chance at the #1 seed
Mucky Tundra (20h) : beast, I would guess ad revenue from more eyes watching tv
Zero2Cool (21h) : I would think it would hurt the home team because people would have to cancel last minute maybe? i dunno
beast (21h) : I agree that it's BS for fans planning on going to the game. But how does it bring in more money? I'm guessing indirectly?
packerfanoutwest (21h) : bs on flexing the game....they do it for the $$league$$, not the hometown fans
Zero2Cool (22h) : I see what you did there Mucky
Zero2Cool (22h) : dammit. 3:25pm
Zero2Cool (22h) : Packers Vikings flexed to 3:35pm
Mucky Tundra (22h) : Upon receiving the news about Luke Musgrave, I immediately fell to the ground
Mucky Tundra (22h) : Yeah baby!
Zero2Cool (22h) : LUKE MUSGRAVE PLAYING TONIGHT~!~~~~WOWHOAAOHAOAA yah
Zero2Cool (23h) : I wanna kill new QB's ... blitz the crap out of them.
beast (23h) : Barry seemed to get too conservative against new QBs, Hafley doesn't have that issue
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : However, we seem to struggle vs new QB's
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : Should be moot point, cuz Packers should win tonight.
packerfanoutwest (23-Dec) : ok I stand corrected
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : Ok, yes, you are right. I see that now how they get 7th
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : 5th - Packers win out, Vikings lose out. Maybe?
beast (23-Dec) : Saying no to the 6th lock.
beast (23-Dec) : No, with the Commanders beating the Eagles, Packers could have a good chance of 6th or 7th unless the win out
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I think if Packers win, they are locked 6th with chance for 5th.
beast (23-Dec) : But it doesn't matter, as the Packers win surely win one of their remaining games
beast (23-Dec) : This is not complex, just someone doesn't want to believe reality
beast (23-Dec) : We already have told you... if Packers lose all their games (they won't, but if they did), and Buccaneers and Falcons win all theirs
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I posted it in that Packers and 1 seed thread
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I literally just said it.
packerfanoutwest (23-Dec) : show us a scenario where Pack don't get in? bet you can't
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : Falcons, Buccaneers would need to win final two games.
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