Zero2Cool
2 years ago

A PFF study showed exactly how rare Rodgers’ ability to make decisions and execute is. On Wednesday, [URL=https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pff.com%2Fnews%2Fnfl-evaluating-quarterbacks-decision-making-process&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.acmepackingcompany.com%2F2022%2F7%2F7%2F23197522%2Fstudy-aaron-rodgers-is-one-of-the-best-decision-makers-in-the-league-green-bay-packers-quarterback" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank]Pro Football Focus’[/URL] Arjun Menon and Judah Fortgang published a new study that attempted to isolate a quarterback’s decision-making, which they self proclaim is the first of its kind that has been released to the public. The methodology includes “game situation, route, defensive-back ability, receiver separation, men in the box and other defensive situational factors.”

Based on a three-year sample size, with a minimum of 320 dropbacks over that period, the Green Bay Packers ’ Aaron Rodgers ranked second among quarterbacks in Predicted EPA (expected points added) By QB Decision. The only quarterback ranked above him was the New England Patriots ’ and Tampa Bay Buccaneers ’ Tom Brady. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Detroit/Los Angeles’ Matthew Stafford rounded out the top tier of quarterbacks from a decision-making standpoint over this time.
This, obviously, doesn’t include talent-based results from the quarterback’s end of the equation. This process-based metric only measures when quarterbacks are making optimal decisions, without the impact of ball placement influencing their numbers. This is why some gunslinger types like Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes ranked 11th and 12th among qualifying quarterbacks despite their obvious talent level. The next highest-ranked quarterback in the NFC North behind Rodgers was Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins, ranked 22nd among qualifiers.

Processing power only goes so far, though, as the study notes, “The ability to execute is likely the most important QB metric because how well a QB executes — the X-axis of the above graph — better predicts next year’s EPA (R value of 0.46) than EPA itself (0.43).” In layman’s terms: Talent is more consistent than what we can estimate even with weighted factors. While Brady is in a tier of his own in terms of his decision-making, he’s in the middle of the pack in regard to his execution versus expected. On the flip side, a quarterback like Mahomes is in the middle of the pack as a decision-maker but is ranked second in execution versus expectation.

Rodgers, though, ranks highly in decision-making (second) and execution (fourth) which puts him in rare air. The only quarterbacks ahead of him in execution are the retired Drew Brees, Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, who did not play in 2020.

The study also claims that execution is relatively tied to the success (or lack thereof) that a quarterback has when he makes a “non-optimal” decision: “There is a much stronger correlation between QB execution and EPA on nonoptimal plays (0.75) than on optimal plays (0.33). This is to say that against talented secondaries — or when no receivers are open — a QB’s ability to generate offense and throw receivers open is the most predictive of his total production.”
Some quarterbacks are robots who can make correct decisions and move their offense down the field by taking what the defense gives them. Some quarterbacks can break structure and complete passes that most aren’t expected to for chunk plays. Rodgers — a four-time MVP of the NFL — is both, which anyone watching the sport already knew, but is nice to see quantified.


Continue Reading @ justis.mosqueda 

justis.mosqueda wrote:



Eh, I don't know about that. I could also just be salty over 49ers playoff loss too. Allen. Lazard!
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Pugger
2 years ago
Its unfortunate his decision making isn't as good in January...
dhazer
2 years ago
I did like how they said this doesn't include the talent level lol. But geez 2 of the oldest qbs in the NFL seem to be able to make quick decisions how Ironic, it wouldn't have anything to do with maybe they saw just about every type of defense you can throw at them? Maybe they should of put Fitzpatrick or even Chase Daniels to the test? Wait Daniels doesn't get to play but he just signed another good deal for him. Just another story to slobber all over Rodgers. He is not the Goat and nothing statistically even points to it. And before someone throws out the career passer rating needs to check and see Maholmes is ahead of him and I would take it with a grain of salt because Deshaun Watson is tied with Rodgers at 2 lol. Just another clickbait story in the downtime of the year. BTW I still stand with the whole Rodgers plays 1 year and retires and sticks the Packers with $65 million in dead money. Been saying it since he signed the extension.
Just Imagine this for the next 6-9 years. What a ride it will be 🙂 (PS, Zero should charge for this)
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Zero2Cool
2 years ago

BTW I still stand with the whole Rodgers plays 1 year and retires and sticks the Packers with $65 million in dead money. Been saying it since he signed the extension.

Originally Posted by: dhazer 



Check out what happened with Drew Brees. He redid his contract to spread it out. It'll be similar to Aaron Rodgers. Swap that tinfoil hat with a cheesehead buddy! 😁
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bboystyle
2 years ago
Now if only he can become clutch in the playoffs
Pugger
2 years ago

I did like how they said this doesn't include the talent level lol. But geez 2 of the oldest qbs in the NFL seem to be able to make quick decisions how Ironic, it wouldn't have anything to do with maybe they saw just about every type of defense you can throw at them? Maybe they should of put Fitzpatrick or even Chase Daniels to the test? Wait Daniels doesn't get to play but he just signed another good deal for him. Just another story to slobber all over Rodgers. He is not the Goat and nothing statistically even points to it. And before someone throws out the career passer rating needs to check and see Maholmes is ahead of him and I would take it with a grain of salt because Deshaun Watson is tied with Rodgers at 2 lol. Just another clickbait story in the downtime of the year. BTW I still stand with the whole Rodgers plays 1 year and retires and sticks the Packers with $65 million in dead money. Been saying it since he signed the extension.

Originally Posted by: dhazer 



Fitzpatrick retired this past spring.
dhazer
2 years ago

Fitzpatrick retired this past spring.

Originally Posted by: Pugger 



I know but was just referencing his longevity and how he would probably score high on this so-called test.

Just Imagine this for the next 6-9 years. What a ride it will be 🙂 (PS, Zero should charge for this)
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Martha Careful (17-Nov) : comment of the day Z2Cool "Bears better than we want to admit. Packers worse than we think. It's facts."
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beast (17-Nov) : That's great news and Packers need to keep upgrading their OL, DL and DBs this off-season, so missing one guy doesn't kill them
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