BILL Huber JAN 26, 2021

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Maybe there won’t be a “capocalypse” after all.

With COVID leaving most stadiums empty or nearly empty in 2020, the resulting decline in revenue is expected to take a significant bite out of the salary cap in 2021. In 2020, teams played under a salary cap of $198.2 million. The cap has risen by at least $10 million for seven consecutive seasons. However, with significantly decreased revenue at the team level, the projection for next season is $176 million. According to OverTheCap.com, 14 teams are over that figure.

The Green Bay Packers are among those teams. After reaching the NFC Championship Game for a second consecutive season, they are a projected $32.1 million over the cap, according to OTC. That’s nothing. The New Orleans Saints are $112.2 million over the cap. And good luck to the new coaches in Philadelphia and Atlanta, which are $53.5 million and $42.3 million over the cap, respectively.

“It’s going to be a massacre,” one agent said.

“It’s going to be star money and young money and nothing in between,” another said, with the expectation that the midpriced veteran would go extinct as teams try to fill a roster around its high-priced stars.

But it doesn’t have to be that way. And, ultimately, maybe it won’t.

Multiple agents told Packer Central that they expect the owners and players union to agree to borrow against future caps to “smooth over” the difference between the potential for a dramatically decreased cap in 2021 and dramatically increased caps in the future.

Nothing is official and nothing is guaranteed, they cautioned, but their belief wasn't mere wishing and hoping.

This year, the league added two playoff teams, meaning two extra playoff games. Next year, the league schedule is expected to go from 16 games to 17 games. The Monday Night Football contract with ESPN expires after the 2021 season and contracts with CBS (for the AFC), Fox (for the NFC) and NBC (Sunday night) will expire after the 2022 season. Because the NFL is a ratings juggernaut, rights fees are expected to soar. According to Forbes, for instance, Fox’s $1.2 billion deal could almost double to $2 billion annually.

With boatloads of new money to become available, agents are cautiously optimistic there won’t be mass casualties with the average team being just $1.44 million beneath the $176 million projection.

“If I’m Jerry Jones, there’s no way I’m going to cut a number of veterans to get below the cap, knowing it’s going to go up once all the new money shows up,” one agent said.

Added another agent: “Look at you guys. You got to the championship game and now you’ve got to get rid of a bunch of players. You’re going to be right in the middle of this. Same with the Chiefs,” who are $26.2 million over the projected cap.

One agent said the expectation is the cap for 2020 will at least remain steady. Another agent said he expected it to touch $200 million. Another was planning for $195 million.

“Why go from $175 million for 2021 and then raise it to $220 million in 2022? That just doesn’t make any sense,” he said.

In the eyes of one agent, the league owes it to the players, who played through a pandemic so the NFL could put its games on television.

“We just played 256 games and the playoffs. It wasn’t what was best for the players,” he said. “It was what’s best for our TV partners.”

All three agents said teams are using the potential for a dramatically decreased cap as a scare tactic to get their upcoming free agents to sign for less money than they might otherwise. One of those agents has told teams he would not negotiate on behalf of any of his players until the cap is officially set.

Officially, the NFL and NFLPA haven’t negotiated but the belief is talks have taken place behind the scenes. Usually, the cap teams will be working with is announced just before the start of the league-year in early March.



https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/nfl-salary-cap-might-not-crash-after-all 

I find it interesting that it is agents who are the ones saying there will not be a drastic cap hit. It's not coming from the teams, NFL Inc or even the NFLPA. It may well prove to be true but it looks more like the agents fervent wish more than fact at this point. I laughed when I read the line, "the league owes it to the players." The league isn't just going to roll over and hand out a semi load of cash to the players without getting some kind of a concession in return. The management coveted 18th game perhaps.

Originally Posted by: wpr 

Absolutely! Agents might know something, but they're among the last ones I'd fully trust in this, as it's their job to keep pushing for more and more.... and that backfires!

Just off the top of my head, supposedly we have lost WR Jennings, DE Jenkins, and TE Cook just because their agents over played their players markets and ended up taking less than what the Packers had previously offered them. Well that, and the players were then upset when the Packers offers had then gone down as FA started and they committed money elsewhere.


I also find it extremely strange that Chiefs owner who I think leads the financial committee, said they may not know what the final numbers will be until hours before FA.

This leads me to believe, they're expecting muliple arguments on which way to go... which I assume will be, do we do the minimum, or light drop or no drop. As they try to weight all options including trying to predict future money that will be coming in.

But absolutely, the line that the NFl owns the players, smells.like pure bullshit! Because while it's true the NFL owes the players, they have always owed the players, and they have never given much of a damn outside of what they have to give, unless they're making market money, selling the person's face.

Originally Posted by: beast 

With COVID leaving most stadiums empty or nearly empty in 2020, the resulting decline in revenue is expected to take a significant bite out of the salary cap in 2021

“It’s going to be star money and young money and nothing in between,” another said, with the expectation that the midpriced veteran would go extinct as teams try to fill a roster around its high-priced stars."

I am too lazy, but has anyone done an analysis of how much we would be over the cap without:[list=1]

Originally Posted by: KRK 

This could be a bit of semantics or hyperbole. The owners may not know the final numbers but they have a solid idea of what they will be.

As a lame illustration, I'm on the county board. The county owns an old house that has been used as office space by a law firm for several decades. The lawyer is retiring. The house is on the same city block where we built our new jail. We plan to take the building down in the spring. Before we vote on it the chairman wants to know what three options are: the cost to tear it down. The cost to rehab it and use it as office space for the county. The cost to rehab it in order to rent it out as a residence and the value if we resell it. The place needs too much work for options 2, 3 and 4. Most board members are wanting to take it down but the chairman wants all the numbers for all the options so we can say we did our due diligence.

Flipping back to the NFL, more than likely they know what they are going to do but might not have the exact dollar amount yet. If nothing else, it gives the illusion they have not predetermined the exact outcome before all the facts are in even if in fact they have a general idea of where it's going.

Originally Posted by: wpr 

Absolutely! Agents might know something, but they're among the last ones I'd fully trust in this, as it's their job to keep pushing for more and more.... and that backfires!

...

But absolutely, the line that the NFl owns the players, smells.like pure bullshit! Because while it's true the NFL owes the players, they have always owed the players, and they have never given much of a damn outside of what they have to give, unless they're making market money, selling the person's face.

Originally Posted by: beast 

Bill Huber said What he should have said was, "With the NFL shooting itself in the foot and alienating a significant percentage of its audience with its over the top wokeness....revenues were down....

Originally Posted by: KRK 

I understand everything you said as I am a council member and btw it costs around $35000 to have a government building torn down and 15,000 for me or you lol. But the part that made me laugh in this story is how the agents say the nfl didnt have the best interests of the players by playing the games. Well last time I checked the players had an option, they could play and get paid or sit out and not get paid, but also don't use a year of their contract. I think they should cut it and kill a bunch of these outrageous salaries. They don't deserve $35 million to play a game. Knock them down a few notches I say.

Originally Posted by: dhazer