KRK
  • KRK
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
5 years ago

CONCLUSIONS:People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v2.full.pdf ....
Id est, not lock everyone else down.
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KRK
  • KRK
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
5 years ago
Regrettably

COVID-19 Expert: Virus Will Rage Until Infection Rate Hits 60%-70%’
By Eric A. Blair
Published May 12, 2020 at 2:18pm

Isolation doesn’t work.

Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, says the SARS-CoV-2 virus sweeping the U.S. cannot be shut down by simply isolation or social distancing. Instead, the virus will spread until herd imminity kicks in.

“This damn virus is going to keep going until it infects everybody it possibly can,” Osterholm said Monday during a meeting with the USA Today editorial board. “It surely won’t slow down until it hits 60 to 70%” of the population. That’s the number that would create herd immunity and end the spread of the virus, he said.

Herd immunity kicks in when a majority of people have been exposed to a virus and thus built up antibodies, which — for many viruses but not all — means people cannot be reinfected.

Osterholm warned that a second wave could reappear in the fall, just as the flu disappears for the most part during hotter and more humid seasons.

“It’s the big peak that’s really going to do us in,” he said. “As much pain, suffering, death and economic disruption we’ve had, there’s been 5 to 20% of the people infected, … That’s a long ways to get to 60 to 70%.”

But the virus is most dangerous to the elderly. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC), in it’s latest filing on May 6, put the “provisional death count” at 44,016. The age of death breaks down like this:

0-54 — 7.8%
55-64 — 12.3%
65-74 — 21.2%
75+ — 58.6%

And because the coronavirus can be asymptomatic in as many as 50% of those infected, there are likely millions who have already had the virus but didn’t even know.

An antibody study was conducted last month in New York City and found that 1 in 5 (21.2%) of residents have already been infected with the coronavirus. There are 8.5 million people in New York City, so that would mean 1.8 million New Yorkers have had the virus.

At the time of the study, there were 16,249 deaths in the city attributed to COVID-19, which means the death rate in the city was 0.89% at the time — far lower than reports in the U.S. media.

Results of antibody survey last month in Los Angeles also found as many as 442,000 Los Angeles County residents might have already been infected with the coronavirus by early April, a number far higher than the 8,000 cases confirmed at the time. The survey suggested that the death rate from the virus could be as low as 0.18% of COVID-19 patients, which means the actual death rate in the city is far lower than reported.

Meanwhile, professor Michael Levitt, who won the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2013, says the lockdowns ordered by state governors were a complete overreaction to COVID-19 and may actually backfire.

Levitt, who teaches structural biology at the Stanford School of Medicine, has been analyzing the COVID-19 outbreak from a statistical perspective ever since January, according to Unherd.com.

He says that despite all the predictions, the data show that the COVID-19 outbreak never actually grew exponentially, which means the draconian lockdown measures were most likely unnecessary.

According to UnHerd:

His observation is a simple one: that in outbreak after outbreak of this disease, a similar mathematical pattern is observable regardless of government interventions. After around a two week exponential growth of cases (and, subsequently, deaths) some kind of break kicks in, and growth starts slowing down. The curve quickly becomes “sub-exponential.”

This may seem like a technical distinction, but its implications are profound. The ‘unmitigated’ scenarios modelled by (among others) Imperial College, and which tilted governments across the world into drastic action, relied on a presumption of continued exponential growth — that with a consistent R number of significantly above 1 and a consistent death rate, very quickly the majority of the population would be infected and huge numbers of deaths would be recorded. But Professor Levitt’s point is that that hasn’t actually happened anywhere, even in countries that have been relatively lax in their responses. /quote]


In Luce tua Videmus Lucem KRK
KRK
  • KRK
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
5 years ago
Not that I believe anything from the Chicoms or their Drs., but worth considering...
[list]
  • Get outside when you can
  • Locking kids up with granny or gramps is not a very good idea[/list]
  • Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2Hua Qian, Te Miao, Li LIU, Xiaohong Zheng, Danting Luo, Yuguo Li
    https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058 

    Abstract
    Background: By early April 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had infected nearly one million people and had spread to nearly all countries worldwide. It is essential to understand where and how SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted. Methods: Case reports were extracted from the local Municipal Health Commissions of 320 prefectural cities (municipalities) in China, not including Hubei province, between 4 January and 11 February 2020. We identified all outbreaks involving three or more cases and reviewed the major characteristics of the enclosed spaces in which the outbreaks were reported and associated indoor environmental issues. Results: Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities.

    We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk.


    In Luce tua Videmus Lucem KRK
    Smokey
    5 years ago
    Wisconsin is 100% fully open, just like a Pandemic never too place!

    Rest assured that the rest of America will be watching very closely. Getting infected with Covid-19 is very easy as it is a highly contagious virus. Symptoms are not immediate, but follow closely behind. It reminds me of throwing gasoline on a fore to see if the embers are out. This could serve as a picture for all other states to viw and learn from.

    Profit vs Lives


    A Code Blue Production

    UserPostedImage
    Zero2Cool
    5 years ago

    Wisconsin is 100% fully open, just like a Pandemic never too place!

    Rest assured that the rest of America will be watching very closely. Getting infected with Covid-19 is very easy as it is a highly contagious virus. Symptoms are not immediate, but follow closely behind. It reminds me of throwing gasoline on a fore to see if the embers are out. This could serve as a picture for all other states to viw and learn from.

    Profit vs Lives


    A Code Blue Production

    Originally Posted by: Smokey 



    That's actually not true. I live in Wisconsin and while the "shut down" was hardly noticed, there are facilities (e.g. Bars) that are indeed closed. Some of them opened up yesterday after the Senate ruling, but Brown County issues something that re-enacted some of the restrictions.

    UserPostedImage
    Smokey
    5 years ago
    Too late for reason now, the (R) Wisconsin Supreme Court has ruled. It's every man (women/child) for themselves.

    I predict the Covid-19 virus will win by 3 to 4 Touchdowns. Removing the best defense will allow this scourge to run at will and pass some other states numbers.

    Good Luck Wisconsin

    UserPostedImage
    Zero2Cool
    5 years ago

    Too late for reason now, the (R) Wisconsin Supreme Court has ruled. It's every man (women/child) for themselves.

    I predict the Covid-19 virus will win by 3 to 4 Touchdowns. Removing the best defense will allow this scourge to run at will and pass some other states numbers.

    Good Luck Wisconsin

    Originally Posted by: Smokey 



    Oh, you're just throwing random hyperbolic comments out there to see what sticks. Got it.
    UserPostedImage
    Cheesey
    5 years ago

    Oh, you're just throwing random hyperbolic comments out there to see what sticks. Got it.

    Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



    Yup. Like I said, consistent.
    UserPostedImage
    KRK
    • KRK
    • Veteran Member Topic Starter
    5 years ago
    Michael Levitt, professor of structural biology at Stanford Medical School and winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry, recently stated, "There is no doubt in my mind that when we come to look back on this, the damage done by lockdown will exceed any saving of lives by a huge factor."

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-11/more-than-a-billion-people-escaped-poverty-in-the-last-20-years-the-coronavirus-could-erase-those-gains 

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8315269/Commercial-mouthwash-prevent-COVID-19-transmission-scientists-say.html 



    In Luce tua Videmus Lucem KRK
    Smokey
    5 years ago
    Once upon a time, ten men were adrift at sea in a lifeboat. A ships officer was in command and the ships Dr. was also in the boat. The remaining survivors were made up of various members of the former ships crew as well as two passengers that had booked cabins as travelers. The officer and the Dr. carefully explained to all the need to ration food and water for as long as possible. In addition it was explained that drinking the sea water would kill whoever did so.
    As the days passed they got no relief from the suns heat and no rain occurred to help resupply their meager fresh water supply. All eagerly looked forward to their daily water ration as everyone was becoming dehydrated. Warnings to not drink the salt water were issued sometimes more than once a day. In spite of the known medically sound advice, one of the men began to sneak sips of sea water when he saw a chance. Eventually it made him ill and it killed him. His lack of self discipline cost him his life. He was buried at sea and the following day a ship found them and rescued the lifeboat.
    The point is that it's part of human nature to rebel against rules/advice even when we know that advice is in our best interest. Rushing to reopen our states and return to our former lives is,IMO, like the man who drank the sea water even though he had been repeatedly cautioned about the danger. .
    This is not a democratic or a republication pandemic, it's an equal opportunity virus that IS killing people worldwide. Without a certified medical solution/s the best advice is to reduce the spread of the virus (and this is the worldwide accepted recommendation). Relaxing social distancing may present quick gratification today, but let's see the numbers in 10 days or 2 weeks following the celebrations. How many more will die as the virus spreads to our families, friends, and to the innocent that got caught in the viral crossfire.

    Consistent, yes the trained medical experts certainly are that. How many would change their tune if this virus killed their child or sister or mother?
    UserPostedImage
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