Always fun to play around with this.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine 

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nice

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Let's wait to begin to think about seedings and byes if we beat SF. If we get pummeled, I will worry more about making the playoffs at all.

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Really? The Packers have 8 wins, 2 losses, and upcoming games against the Redskins, Giants, Bears, and Lions. Those teams have a combined 10 wins and 26 losses. Worst case seem like 10-6 at this point, which is probably good enough for a wild card.

If they clean up the games left vs teams with loosing records, but lose to 49ers and vikings, they'll be 12-4. Even with a surprisingly loss in there, 11-5.

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If we lose to 49ers then I'm worrying about the division, because we can't seem to lose the Vikings, and the whole division has played us extremely tough so far this year and we were lucky in division games so far.

But I think playoffs are ALMOST a lock.


I just ran the ESPN predictor, with winning percentage, and switching the Packers to losing all of their games...

The worst scenario seemed to be, the away teams winning all the tie breakers (Rams over Cowboys, Cowboys over Eagles)... would leave the Packers with the 9th NFC spot if they lost the rest of their games.

In which case, it would take two wins (of the final 6) to get into the playoffs... but a number of cases where it'd only take one, because we have the lead and tie breakers over the Cowboys and Panthers.

To get a playoff spot, we basically got to beat out the currently 5-4 teams, meaning Panthers, Rams and the non-division loser of the Cowboys and Eagles race. And we currently got 2.5 game lead on them and tie breaker over two of them.

Unfortunately, Eagles tie breaker over is could potentially make things more complicated if they catch us... but if they win their division then we're not even competing over the same wildcard spot (as far as getting into the playoffs goes).

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The big difference between this year and the last 3 or 4 is The Packers are currently the #2 seed.
Previous years we were just trying to map out scenarios so they could get to the playoffs.

This year we can plug in scenarios to:
#1 Make playoffs
#2 Win the division
#3 Get the #1 seed and home field advantage.

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I’m not that worried about making the playoffs. My biggest concern is, can we WIN in the playoffs. Just making it to the playoffs isn’t the goal it once was for me. Our HOF QB doesn’t have that many years left, and after he is gone I doubt we will have a 3rd straight great QB to lead the team.
The clock is running. They can’t waste another season.
And if we get creamed by SF, that will be a bad sign. It doesn’t mean the end, but it wouldn’t be good.

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Set criteria to defense. Packers miss playoffs. Ruh-oh.

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I hate to rain on the parade, but lets look at the facts....we are 8-2. I am very happy about it.
We could easily be 5-5, so I invite you to wake up and smell the coffee, and take off the rose colored glasses:[list]

We got HUGE breaks to win the Detroit game (at home)

We played Dallas without their starting tackles

We got couple of breaks and a Vikings team which had not hit their stride.

A dumb ass play by David Carr before half and at terrible throw pick when they were rallying [*]We were lucky to stave off the Carolina rally...we couldn't get a first down to put a fork in them.[*]Our defense has been a sieve, other than in the red zone. And the trend on defense is not in our favor.[/list]Yes we play some lesser teams, but let me remind you, NONE of you thought LAC would be a challenge. The Redskins are the only sure win on the schedule. The Giants will score 28 on us. Detroit (away) will have Stafford back. Minnesota is away. The Bear game will be a playoff game for them. Right now: Seattle, SF, Minn, New Orleans are all better than us. Dallas and Philly are close.

I hope I am wrong, but if we get our asses kicked, and get some starters hurt against SF Sunday night...perhaps a left tackle, QB, or DE, there will be PANIC in Packerland....and justifiably so.But I will say I told you so.....

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I agree. We have been lucky. The KC game without their QB.
If our D can learn to tackle, we have as good a chance as any to go on a run.
I remain hopeful.

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