Flashback to the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft. For me, and a ton of other “draftnik’s,” there’s a whole lot of work that goes into preparing for this day. Months of watching film, breaking down players, and forming evaluations is finally about to payoff—not only as an analyst, but as a fan as well.
One of the best aspects of breaking down players so incessantly is that you immediately have an idea of the player that your favorite team selects. It also builds so much drama as the players you’ve studied and love either get snatched up by other teams or hopefully make their way down the board to where your favorite team selects.
For me, the first round of the draft started out perfectly for the Packers. Kyler Murray goes 1 overall which was an ideal scenario. Following Murray were Nick Bosa and Quinnen Williams who were never going to be available at 12. Clelin Ferrell was a surprise pick at four (somebody I would have been ok with at 12, but not thrilled with, so I felt this was a good pick for Green Bay). Devin White goes 5, but again, he was never expected to be there for Green Bay either. We’re still doing well.
Then Daniel Jones gets selected 6 and we’re really building a dream scenario here. Josh Allen goes 7 and I didn’t mind him being off the board. With only four picks to be made before the Packers, players like TJ Hockenson, Brian Burns, Andre Dillard, Jonah Williams, Devin Bush, Montez Sweat, and Ed Oliver were all still on the board. It was guaranteed that at least 3 of those 7 players would be available when Green Bay selected.
Then things took bit of a turn. All of a sudden Hockenson, Oliver (the true apple of my eye), Bush, and Jonah Williams were taken with the next four picks. Green Bay was now on the clock. Two players I really loved were left: Brian Burns and Andre Dillard. Montez Sweat is an option too but the recent revelation of a potential heart issue clouds things a bit. Things were getting interesting.
In my head I had a strong feeling that this wasn’t going to go the way I hoped. I knew full well they were unlikely to take Brian Burns at 12. For as much as he would bring a different type of edge rusher to the table as a true speed rusher, he never truly fit Mike Pettine’s scheme and he may never be a three-down player. I knew they wouldn’t bite.
I’ve said for a while I think Burns will be there at 12 and GB will pass. NFL wants 3 down guys that early in the draft and they will question if Burns can be that. He’s a top 6 guy for me but it wouldn’t shock me to see him go in the mid-late teens. https://t.co/oKAcOz4PwX
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) April 22, 2019
As much as I loved Andre Dillard, he made less sense for Green Bay than anywhere else because he’s a true left tackle and that position is sort of spoken for in Green Bay. And as I mentioned the heart issue clouded everything for Montez Sweat and with there being a concern he probably wouldn’t be in play at 12 either. I knew these things, but I didn’t really want to believe them.
Oh not pigeonholing them with Dillard. I just like it as an option and would have no issue taking him. He has less value with GB than almost anywhere else due to Bakh. It’s not a perfect marriage by any means.
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) April 14, 2019
They could maybe go with Christian Wilkins, a super solid interior defender who probably matches a little too similarly to Kenny Clark, but he’d be a good pick—albeit a bit of a letdown at 12. Trading down and netting an extra pick while picking up a Noah Fant, Chris Lindstrom, or Jerry Tillery could make some sense as well. But then the ever familiar pop-up shows up… The Pick is In!
I knew there was no trade down and I was legitimately on the edge of my seat. Before the Bengals picked I tweeted out “Burns, Dillard, or Jonah. Sweat would be fine too. Just no Gary or QB.” It echoed a similar tweet I posted back on April 8th which basically stated I’d be fine with anything besides QB, RB, or Rashan Gary.
Burns, Dillard, or Jonah. Sweat would be fine too. Just no Gary or QB.
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) April 26, 2019
Rashan Gary was never truly under consideration for me. There was the lack of production, his stock had been falling to the middle or end of round one by just about every major draft site, and it was just revealed that he may need offseason shoulder surgery and that his shoulder may affect him for all of 2019. Honestly, it just never felt feasible.
And then the pick comes in. My immediate response:
You. Have. Got. To. Be. Kidding. Me.
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) April 26, 2019
Followed by:
Welcome to the team, I wish you the best of luck, I’ll be cheering Gary on every Sunday, no booing the pick, no booing the player, but I do not like this pick one bit. It’s as close to the worst case scenario for me as it gets.
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) April 26, 2019
I was immediately scheduled to talk with Aaron Nagler and Corey Behnke on the Live CHTV Draft Show. I’m reviewing my notes, and getting ready to go on air but inside its tough not to be disappointed. At the end of the day, I’m still a fan too. Top 12 draft picks only (hopefully) come along so often, and for that pick to be used on pretty much the only player I didn’t want sucked. Frankly… it sucked.
So then comes the interview with Aaron and Corey. For the longest time I didn’t want to go back and watch it. Of the almost six minute clip there was only one phrase that I could remember after the fact. In my head it went something to the effect of “To me he was the HaHa Clinton-Dix of defensive lineman.” The more I watched the tape of Gary afterwards the more I knew this wasn’t true; but more on that in a moment.
I finally went back and watched the clip recently and it wasn’t as bad as I thought it to be in my head. I covered his elite athleticism, the fact he was a perfect scheme fit, I covered his versatility, and ultimately I hit on a lot of key points I wanted to cover. His lack of production was a fair point to bring up.
Aaron also brought up a fantastic point that Gary doesn’t always have a path to the quarterback—this was a legit criticism of Gary as well. Overall, besides the HaHa comment, I thought my analysis did a good job of breaking down his great traits with the true question marks. Even still, as Aaron notes during the segment, my disappointment was palpable.
So why was I so down on Rashan Gary? At pick 12 I had a list of boxes to check and I wanted to check off as many of the boxes as I could. I was hoping for:
Elite athleticism
Big time production
No injury issues or red flags
No off field issues or red flags
A player who jumps off the tape
Scheme fit
Ideally played at a big-time program
No questions of effort or hustle
Plays a premium position (QB, WR, OT, Pass Rusher, CB)
High Upside
Low Floor
Consistency
Gary checked a lot of these boxes:
Elite athleticism, no off field issues, jumps off the tape (at times), perfect scheme fit, played at a big time program, played at a premium position, and has massive upside.
But he also had too many unchecked:
Lacked production, hustle/effort was questioned, he wasn’t consistent, he had injury concerns, and his floor was definitely uncertain.
Rashan Gary:
Scheme Fit ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
Athletic Ability ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
Versatility ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
Production ⭐️
< 10 sacks in 3 years
26 pressures in 2018 (Burns 63)
17 hurries (worst for top edge prospects)
5 hits (worst for top edge prospects)
6.5 tfls
34 total games: 0 INTs, 0 fr, 1ff
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) April 26, 2019
For pick 12, I couldn’t reconcile the latter part of this list. I wanted somebody who checked more boxes and was ultimately a safer pick. For these reasons I never gave much credence to Gary at 12 and by no means was I alone in that assessment.
Thor Nystrom came on the Pack-A-Day podcast with me after the draft and blasted the pick, echoing a lot of my same concerns. Jordan Reid questioned Gary’s on/off switch and noted that he disappears for stretches. The Draft Network had Gary as their 39th overall player. Kyle Crabbs had him as an early 2nd round pick, Joe Marino questioned his inconsistent motor, and Jon Ledyard had him as a 2nd round pick, questioning his pass rush polish.
Daniel Jeremiah was one of the few to offer a different opinion – having him as his 10th overall player and noting that Gary’s effort was exceptional.
Ultimately what was done, was done, and now it was time for me to watch even more Rashan Gary. I knew I’d be joining podcasts and doing guest spots on radio and TV shows and I needed to know everything there was to know about Gary. More than that, I had to see if there was something I was missing. What did Green Bay see that I missed?
Not more than 5 minutes after the draft was done I live-streamed a video of me breaking down Gary versus Ohio State. That was a game that always stood out to me but I came away more impressed this time. Over the course of the next couple weeks I watched more and more Rashan Gary and to be honest, to this day, I keep wanting to watch more of his tape. The more you watch, the more the intricacies of his game stand out.
A little over a week back my mindset on Gary started to flip pretty significantly. And I know what you’re thinking already. I didn’t like the player during the draft process, and now Green Bay selected him and all of a sudden I started seeing the positives. And honestly I’ve been so massively aware of that potentially happening that I’ve watched the tape over and over again to make sure I’m not just wearing rose-tinted glasses and watching him with renewed hope.
So here's my tape study on Gary. Lots to like, lots to love in fact. You'll see some plays where he doesn't have a plan to get to the quarterback but watch his explosiveness out of his stance & his physicality & hand usage -- elite, elite traits. Finding consistency will be key. pic.twitter.com/CwslJiB8nP
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) April 26, 2019
The first thing on my re-watch that I immediately noticed was that Daniel Jeremiah was right, and it’s why he’s one of the best in the business. Gary’s motor doesn’t run hot and cold at all, and he’s nothing like “the HaHa Clinton-Dix of defensive lineman.” Gary’s engine burns hot and he plays the game 100 miles per hour. He needs to finish plays better, and he needs to develop a better path to the quarterback, but his effort is exceptional. There were multiple times when he chased down plays from behind or hustled sideline to sideline. The more I watched the more he checked this box.
Who does @RashanAGary remind me of?! A little bit of @TheRealZSmith , a little bit of @camjordan94 , and a LOT of @EversonGriffen . Check it out! pic.twitter.com/rOxcs0UmOv
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) May 4, 2019
Then more positives started rolling in. I reached out to Pro Football Focus, and they mentioned that his pressure percentage was actually better in 2017 when he wasn’t playing with an injured shoulder. Devin Bush came out and stated that he would have taken Gary ahead of himself. Michigan’s defensive coordinator went on the Locked on Packers Podcast and gave rave reviews about Gary. Mike Smith the Packers LB’s coach said he was his number one edge rusher on his board. There were more and more positives coming out every day.
Clips like this started showing up on Twitter:
I just became a Rashan Gary fan pic.twitter.com/9SwcyMwIfZ
— CrockTIME (@eric_crocker) May 28, 2019
Do you want to tell this guy that his game has an on/off switch? Because I certainly don’t.
I also quickly started to realize that while I was enamored by the elite athleticism of Ed Oliver, Montez Sweat, and Brian Burns, I was somehow missing out on the fact that Gary was probably the biggest athletic freak of them all. I just needed to stop and look closer and stop focusing too much on some of the negatives. (Tell me what they can do!!!).
Finally, this week was the second week of OTA’s and this past Tuesday I got to see Rashan Gary in person for the first time. I was excited, but I also knew it wasn’t a padded practice and I’d have to be careful with jumping to conclusions, especially in the trenches with no pads.
The first thing that immediately jumped out to me was Gary’s size. Gary has the look of a guy that you don’t want lined up across from you for any reason. He’s big, strong, physical, and just has the look of a top flight defensive player.
Two things that immediately, and I mean immediately, step out:
ZaDarius Smith & Rashan Gary look the part. The type of players you don’t want to see lined up across from you.
Also, Raven Greene is running around out here looking jacked. Not Danny Vitale jacked, but jacked.
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) May 29, 2019
Then came the practice and the number one thing that I always want to see is somebody flash and make a play when I’m not specifically watching them. If somebody can make a play that causes me to do a double take and say, “who the hell was that?!” you’ve officially piqued my interest. Gary made two such plays in team drills on Wednesday.
The first time he exploded off the line of scrimmage, turned the corner, flattened to the quarterback and exploded past David Bakhtiari for what would have been a sack of Rodgers. A few plays later he exploded right through Billy Turner at RT using his raw power. He was also involved in a run stuff on a run up the middle that went nowhere. All of these plays were ones where he stood out without me specifically watching him. Yes it’s an unpadded OTA, but these are absolutely the things you want to see.
Rashan Gary making his presence known. First with the speed rush around DBak and now with the power move through Billy Turner. No pads but it’s EXACTLY what you want to be seeing. Shoulder looks just fine btw.
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) May 29, 2019
For the past couple days I’ve once again wanted to double check everything. I wanted to make sure this wasn’t a scenario where I wanted to make up for a bad initial impression or that I wanted to see Gary be better because he was now a Packer. But looking back over time, I didn’t like the Datone Jones or HaHa Clinton-Dix picks, and I hated the Jerrell Worthy, Khiri Thornton, and Richard Rodgers picks and even after re-watching those players over and over after they were Packers, I never wavered on my initial assessment.
Rashan Gary was different. I misjudged him at first glance. He’s a more athletic, productive, and high energy player than I ever gave him credit for. Does this mean that I personally would have taken him over Burns at 12? I’m still not sure. Does it mean that he’s bound for glory and will be a Pro Bowl Packer for years to come? It doesn’t.
Gary unquestionably has to find a path to the quarterback which is fortunately something that Mike Smith excels at building. He also needs to find more production and needs to force turnovers at a much higher rate. If he can’t do these things he will struggle to live up to the number twelve pick.
What I do believe is that Gary won’t bust. He’s too good of a player against the run, and he’s too physical of a player overall. He’s got a phenomenal passion for the game, and he continues to hone his craft—the game matters to him. Even if he doesn’t get one ounce better for the rest of his career he can still help the team. And I do believe he will get better as time goes on and he learns from Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Kyler Fackrell, Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels, etc…
Rashan Gary always should have been in the discussion for the Packers at pick 12. At the end of the day I wish I would have read his tape better initially. I wish I wouldn’t have called him the HaHa Clinton-Dix of defensive lineman. I wish that I wouldn’t have sent out a stupid tweet saying anyone but Gary and that taking him was the wrong move.
Instead I wish I would have tweeted and noted on-air some of his positives and negatives, but ultimately that I was excited to go back and watch more tape of Gary and learn more about him as a player. Because when I did, I became a lot more excited about the prospect overall. Unfortunately, sometimes that’s how we learn, and going forward I’ll be better for it.
10 years ago I was at this same practice on the same field watching a rookie 52 in drills for the first time. He immediately stood out to me and while it was just shorts & no pads, he looked special from the first whistle. I got the same feeling from another rookie 52 today. pic.twitter.com/T9o21dGMRe
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) May 30, 2019
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Andy is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh and owns & operates the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Andy has taken multiple courses in NFL scouting and appears weekly on 107.5 The Fan in Green Bay to breakdown film. This past season he was an analyst on Green Bay Nation on WFRV TV in Green Bay. Andy grew up in Green Bay and is a lifelong season ticket holder; follow him on Twitter at[URL=https://twitter.com/sconniesports" target="_blank]@sconniesports[/URL].
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