macbob
  • macbob
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
5 years ago
Pete Dougherty article looking at the upcoming impact of GB using signing bonuses to keep the cap hit low this year.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/columnist/2019/03/17/packers-free-agency-outlook/3194195002/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatodaycomnfl-topstories 

General manager Brian Gutekunst's free-agent spending spree pushed a lot of money into future Green Bay Packers salary caps.

How much?

Enough that the Packers rank near the bottom (No. 28) in the NFL in salary-cap room for 2020, according to Spotrac.com.

That’s not to say their position will be dire a year from now with an estimated $28 million in real cap room. It’s not like the Packers general manager will have to cut guys or restructure deals to get under the cap or sign a couple free agents next year at this time.

But the league average for 2020 is about $65 million, and regardless, Gutekunst won’t be able to go on the kind of splurge he did this year. That would require pushing even more money into future caps, which would push him a lot closer to cap jail...

...Here are the most telling numbers: The combined cap number for all four signees in 2019 is $23.4 million; next year, it doubles to $47.75 million.

The large signing bonuses — Za’Darius Smith received $20 million, Preston Smith $16 million — all but lock in the Packers to keeping them for two years. Things would have to go terribly wrong for the team to part with either after one season.

To cut Za’Darius Smith after one year, the Packers would have to eat $15 million in dead money on their ’20 cap but gain only $2.25 million in cap savings, according to Spotrac. To cut him after two seasons, on the other hand, they’d still have a lot of dead money ($10 million) in ’21 but would also free up $10.75 million in cap space.

Likewise, cutting Preston Smith after one season would cost the Packers $12 million in dead money in ‘20 and gain them only $1.5 million in cap room. To do it after the ’20 season, they’d still take a big dead-money hit ($8 million) but at least would gain $8 million in cap space...

...That will cost them flexibility in 2020 because that $28 million in 2020 cap space could go fast.

For instance, former first-round pick Kenny Clark isn’t under contract for 2020 yet, but he’s a keeper. He’ll cost either the fifth-year option of about $7.5 million, or a contract extension that won’t be cheap.

The Packers’ 2020 free-agent class doesn’t have any must-signs but includes Mike Daniels (30 in May), Dean Lowry, Blake Martinez, Mason Crosby and Kyler Fackrell. You have to think Gutekunst will want at least one or two of them back.

Pete Dougherty wrote:



I wouldn't be surprised if they draft some replacements this year for next year's 2020 free agents.
go.pack.go.
5 years ago
From our list of next year’s free agents, I would like to at least keep Clark, Daniels, and Martinez. If we lose any of those guys, I will be disappointed.
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buckeyepackfan
5 years ago
The CBA is up after the 2020 season.

There is a real possibility that there will be an uncapped season in 2021.

Meaning The Packers could choose to redo many of the big contracts paying what is owed in signing bonuses then extending them with a much lower cap number moving ahead.

The Packers did just that after the 2010 season ended and the 2011 season was an uncapped year.

Something to think about as Gutey extends his players and signs other FA.

Nevermind searching, I found this.

The Uncapped Year
With a large portion of news coming from Giants owner John Mara, this sub has seen a lot of back and forth between Redskins fans and Giants fans about the uncapped year in 2010. It usually devolves into Redskins fans calling Mara a piece of shit and Giants fans overusing variations of "salt." So, I decided to try and find out what really happened in 2010.

The short end of it is that the uncapped year in 2010 was the result of the owners' unanimous decision to void the old CBA in favor of constructing a new one. A new agreement could not be reached by 2010, so the year was left uncapped.

An uncapped year would have provided a great place to dump salaries or signing bonuses for teams with deeper pockets, but the owners agreed to maintain the original cap in order to preserve parity. It was later reported that ownership level meetings included up to 6 warnings that "serious consequences" would be levied against teams trying to dump money into the uncapped year. These warnings were heeded by 26 teams who stayed under the cap. 4 teams went slightly over the cap with 1 year contracts and cuts (JaMarcus Russell in Oakland). Only 2 teams went significantly over the cap with multi-year contracts. These 2 teams were the Cowboys and Redskins by 10 million and 36 million, respectively. The Cowboys strayed from their usual practice of using prorated signing bonuses to conserve cap space and gave Miles Austin a 17 million dollar salary for the 2010 season. By 2011, this number would drop to 8.5 million of which 7.855 million would be a signing bonus. This put the Cowboys 10 million over the cap in 2010. At the same time, the Redskins approach was a bit more bold. While restructured contracts are usually used to push back cap hits in order to free up space, the Redskins restructured Albert Haynesworth and DeAngelo Hall in order to dump a large portion, 21 million for Haynesworth and 15 million for Hall, of their contractual dues into 2010. This move took the Redskins from a standard 140 million dollar cap hit in 2010 to over 170 million.

The league did not hand out punishments in 2011. Instead, it waited until 2012 under the new CBA to penalize the Cowboys and Redskins exactly the amount that they went over the "cap" by in 2010. In order to maintain the total league cap space, 46 million dollars was distributed evenly to the other 28 teams in the league (the Saints and Raiders were excluded as part of minor penalties). Mara, the chairman of the Management council, was the one to deliver the news, and his remarks that the Redskins were "lucky they didn't lose draft picks" incited a great deal of hatred, which is still prevalent today.

I am a Giants fan so this research is somewhat biased. Also, the league probably retroactively skewed reports to protect itself. It should also be noted that there was no paper trail for the warnings issued. This is one of the key components that many fans point to when talking about how their team did not violate any written rules at the time. So please fill in any pertinent information I left out, because this sub really needs a good source of what actually happened in 2010.

There was an uncapped year.
Owners agreed not to abuse it.

Except Dallas and Washington.
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beast
5 years ago

I wouldn't be surprised if they draft some replacements this year for next year's 2020 free agents.

Originally Posted by: macbob 

That's what I finally realized Ted Thompson did for years... people say he didn't draft for need, but he did... just it was often next years FAs class... give them one year to work together and learn and then the FA might be let go.

Especially their second pick... and actually used that method to correctly pick the position of the second pick two years in a row now... (S Josh Jones and CB Josh Jackson)... and I say 2nd pick because Matthews/Brohm were the second picks of their drafts and they worked better than just saying second round pick.

So I wouldn't ever be surprised about that at all either.... I haven't looked recently to make sure, but I'm thinking the the big ones would be

DL: Daniels / Lowry (they should give Clark his 5th year option if they haven't already)
OT: Bulaga / Spriggs

FS/CB: Tramon
ILB: Martinez
WR: Allison
OLB: Fackrell

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sschind
5 years ago
That 28 million in cap space in 2020 is with only 31 players under contract. They will need to sign 22 more player to fill the roster. Even if you sign those 23 to league minimum deals for 1st year players (570K) its around 12.5 million. That knocks it down to 15.5. Not a lot of room. thankfully Clark is the only must sign free agent but he will take a lot of it. I could see Martinez's and Daniels' replacements drafted this year.
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
5 years ago
If it's done correctly, you don't need to sign a lot of FAs every year.
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gbguy20
5 years ago

That 28 million in cap space in 2020 is with only 31 players under contract. They will need to sign 22 more player to fill the roster. Even if you sign those 23 to league minimum deals for 1st year players (570K) its around 12.5 million. That knocks it down to 15.5. Not a lot of room. thankfully Clark is the only must sign free agent but he will take a lot of it. I could see Martinez's and Daniels' replacements drafted this year.

Originally Posted by: sschind 



Oh wow
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Zero2Cool
5 years ago

That 28 million in cap space in 2020 is with only 31 players under contract. They will need to sign 22 more player to fill the roster. Even if you sign those 23 to league minimum deals for 1st year players (570K) its around 12.5 million. That knocks it down to 15.5. Not a lot of room. thankfully Clark is the only must sign free agent but he will take a lot of it. I could see Martinez's and Daniels' replacements drafted this year.

Originally Posted by: sschind 



What's the Salary Cap going to be in 2020? The CBA also expires after the 2020, that could also throw a wrench into things.

Either way, I see Aaron Rodgers not restructuring his $32 million cap hit for 2020. Taking around 17% of whatever (adjusted $188,200,000) the cap is gonna be is just a bit absurd.
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rabidgopher04
5 years ago
That Aaron Rodgers contract will hamper the team in future years.
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gbguy20
5 years ago

That 28 million in cap space in 2020 is with only 31 players under contract. They will need to sign 22 more player to fill the roster. Even if you sign those 23 to league minimum deals for 1st year players (570K) its around 12.5 million. That knocks it down to 15.5. Not a lot of room. thankfully Clark is the only must sign free agent but he will take a lot of it. I could see Martinez's and Daniels' replacements drafted this year.

Originally Posted by: sschind 



I thought about this a bit more. While we may currently be at 28 million in space with only 31 guys signed we gotta remember we are still predraft. So let's assume it is really 22 million with 41 guys. Still horrible but sounds a tiny bit better.
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