Zero2Cool
6 years ago
You will read this, and you will love this!!

[list=1]
  • GB 14
  • LA 13
  • OAK 13
  • DAL 11
  • CIN 9[/list]

  • The answer is simple: yes. Yes they do. Almost every Green Bay Packers game seems to feature a moment where Aaron Rodgers  is attempting to change a play or move people around the formation, only to run out of time, call a timeout, and storm over to the sideline in a huff. This seems to happen a lot, but I was curious if other teams were so cavalier with their timeouts, as it’s possible I simply notice this more simply because it’s the Packers .

    Using timeouts early in a half (especially on offense) is almost always a bad idea, as it usually saves the team a delay of game penalty and a measly five yards. The optimal use of timeouts is at the end of a half or at the end of the game when your opponent is attempting to kill the clock. After all, having a complete, or near-complete set of timeouts can create an extra possession for your offense. Possessions are what offense is all about, and clever use of timeouts can actually grant a team a few extra possession over the course of the game. Timeouts can in some instances, grant your team the functional equivalent of a turnover, or close to it .

    In any case, I wanted to see if the Packers really were as bad at conserving timeouts as my eyes told me, so I decided to find out. I pulled all of 2018’s play by play data by following these handy instructions from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin. 
    Once I had the data, I eliminated all timeouts that were caused by losing a replay challenge, as challenges can, and often are, high leverage events. I then broke timeouts down into “early” and “late” categories, with the idea that early timeouts are unwise and usually used to avoid a procedural penalty, and “late” timeouts are the timeouts you call when trying to get the ball back.

    After running a few iterations I decided to classify “late” timeouts as any called in the final two minutes of the first half or final five minutes of the game, whether in the fourth quarter or overtime. That cutoff is somewhat arbitrary, and I originally set it as the final four  minutes of each half, but in looking at some of the underlying data, it’s not uncommon for teams to start using timeouts to get the ball back fairly early in the fourth quarter. For whatever reason, teams don’t have the same urgency about creating an extra possession as the end of the first half and they wait longer to start using timeouts, if they use them at all. A more accurate cutoff is possible, and some early timeout usage is probably smart; but generally speaking an early timeout, whether due to an impending procedure penalty or because a team is caught in the wrong defense, is a wasted timeout, and reflects poorly on the preparation of that team.

    The Numbers
    So, do the Packers waste timeouts? You bet they do. Green Bay has played six games thus far, and therefore they have had the opportunity to call 36 timeouts. They have not used all of them, as they’ve occasionally taken them into the half, but given 36 opportunities to stop the clock, the Packers have used 14 (39%) of them outside of the end of a half or game. That leads the league, and the league leaders here aren’t exactly a group you want to be emulating, with one notable exception.

    Jon Gruden’s extremely dysfunctional Oakland Raiders  are tied for second with 13, followed by the Cowboys  with 11. The team that sits tied with the Raiders, however, is Sean McVay’s Los Angeles Rams , one of the smartest, most efficient teams in the league. It’s possible that McVay considers play selection paramount and the Rams, who lead the NFC in scoring, are as close to a model franchise as you will find, but it is interesting to note that early timeouts are not necessarily a sign of dysfunction.

    Among NFC North teams, the Packers are a huge outlier, as the rest of the NFC North combined has only wasted 15 timeouts so far. Detroit leads the way with four, Minnesota has five, and the Bears  just are just a tick behind with six.

    Among teams that truly value their timeouts, you will find the Super Bowl  Champion Eagles  the best in the league with two, tied with Jacksonville and Indianapolis. It’s worth noting that new Colts ’ head coach Frank Reich came over from the Eagles. The Patriots  are also unsurprisingly good in this category as well, with five.

    While we can’t say decisively that a team is disciplined or sloppy based on this list, leading the league just ahead of the Raiders is probably not where you want to be. The Packers would be wise to tighten up their timeout usage. Mike McCarthy finds himself settling for 52-yard field goals far too frequently, and maybe Aaron Rodgers  would have an easier time coming back if his team was more disciplined in the first place — or, failing that, if they understood the relative value of a possession versus five yards.

    I linked to a fascinating piece by Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics  above. While context matters greatly, he found that in general a timeout is worth .03 WP (win percentage), and three together for about .09 WP. For context, a turnover moves WP by about .15, which is close to the same value as a full game’s worth of timeouts. The average NFL team has wasted 7 timeouts so far in 2018, or about .21 WP. The Packers are about double that, and have wasted about .21 WP over average, putting them on pace for something like half a win’s worth of WP wasted by timeout usage (compared to an avege team) over the course of a season.

    The Real World
    This may all sound academic, but consider the Packers’ tie with the Vikings earlier this season . In the first half, Green Bay used a timeout just 4 minutes into the game after Rodgers was sacked by Everson Griffen and Sheldon Richardson, setting up a 3rd and 17. Rodgers was slow to get up, but still had plenty of time to get the next play off, but instead, this happened.

    Taking a timeout to save five yards on 3rd and 17 has to be among the worst uses of a timeout possible, and it cost the Packers in a big way. They would use their final two timeouts to get the ball back at the end of the half with 1:37 remaining, but, due to some truly baffling play-calling and a seeming lack of urgency, they would end up kicking a field goal on 1st and 10 from the Minnesota 19. It’s very likely that an extra timeout (or better clock management generally) would have allowed them at least two or three shots at the end zone.

    In the 3rd quarter, Rodgers used another timeout after a nice completion to Davante Adams and a penalty moved them down to the Minnesota 18 yard line. Not getting the next play off in time is pretty inexcusable, but saving the five yards also didn’t accomplish much as the team ended up settling for a 40-yard Mason Crosby field goal anyway.

    Green Bay would waste yet another timeout early in the fourth quarter, before a 3rd and 2 play deep in Minnesota territory.

    This may seem defensible as it was a high leverage play, and the difference between 3rd and 2 and 3rd and 7 seems large, but Burke’s analysis showed that in terms of WP, a timeout is still worth more than those five yards. Plus, given that the Packers decided to run a slowly-developing draw play to Jamaal Williams that the Vikings easily stuffed for a loss of a yard, you might argue the Packers would have been better off with seven yards to go.

    This would all come back to bite them, as the Packers would get the ball back with the score tied and 31 seconds remaining. They would gain 11 yards and lose 14 seconds on a pass to Jamaal Williams, followed by a deep ball to Jimmy Graham that got them into long field goal range. But due to a lack of time, they would settle for a 52-yard try on 2nd and 7 with 4 seconds left. Having one more play to get Crosby another 10 yards (or more) would have greatly increased his chances of winning the game and avoiding the tie, but 52-yarders are fairly low percentage tries, and he missed.

    In overtime, the Packers used their two timeouts to ice Minnesota’s soon-to-be-cut kicker, which is an entirely different discussion, but it’s clear that poor use of timeouts cost Green Bay in this game. Sometimes stats don’t seem like they match up with real world outcomes, but the Packers have indeed lost half a win to poor timeout use already, and if they don’t clean this up, it will keep costing them.

    Continue Reading @ PaulNoonan 

    Paul Noonan wrote:


    UserPostedImage
    KRK
    • KRK
    • Veteran Member
    6 years ago
    i knew it....inexcusable.
    In Luce tua Videmus Lucem KRK
    KRK
    • KRK
    • Veteran Member
    6 years ago
    i knew it....inexcusable.
    In Luce tua Videmus Lucem KRK
    dhazer
    6 years ago
    I was thinking a little about this today but on a different level, why does it seem like every single play the Packers seem to snap the ball with 1 or 2 seconds left on the play clock? Is it MM getting the play in late or Rodgers taking forever to try and figure out the defense? But with them taking so long is why you see the wasted time outs.
    Just Imagine this for the next 6-9 years. What a ride it will be 🙂 (PS, Zero should charge for this)
    UserPostedImage
    gbguy20
    6 years ago
    Yep. Dick suckers
    BAD EMAIL because the address couldn ot be found, or is unable to receive mail.
    go.pack.go.
    6 years ago

    I was thinking a little about this today but on a different level, why does it seem like every single play the Packers seem to snap the ball with 1 or 2 seconds left on the play clock? Is it Mike McCarthy getting the play in late or Rodgers taking forever to try and figure out the defense? But with them taking so long is why you see the wasted time outs.

    Originally Posted by: dhazer 



    I have also noticed this.

    And I haven’t seen Rodgers be as successful with hard count, or catching 12 men on the field. I believe that’s because he doesn’t have time to use the hard count as much, and the defense has plenty of time to get off the field. I don’t know what the problem is, but it needs to be fixed.

    UserPostedImage
    Zero2Cool
    6 years ago

    I was thinking a little about this today but on a different level, why does it seem like every single play the Packers seem to snap the ball with 1 or 2 seconds left on the play clock? Is it Mike McCarthy getting the play in late or Rodgers taking forever to try and figure out the defense? But with them taking so long is why you see the wasted time outs.

    Originally Posted by: dhazer 



    I wrote something about this before, not long ago. It doesn't matter why it is happening, it just needs to stop. It tells the defense exactly when they can jump and that puts the OL at one helluva disadvantage.

    I also think it's Aaron trying to out smart the defense instead trusting his instincts or making sure his WR know what to do and is making sure blocks are called out.

    UserPostedImage
    sschind
    6 years ago
    The following line from the article

    After running a few iterations I decided to classify “late” timeouts as ...

    has me wondering if it took a few iterations for the data to prove that the Packers wasted more time outs than anybody else. He admits the time cutoff is arbitrary. Also simply using the time left as a cutoff between a good TO and a wasted one is not telling the whole story. Does he differentiate between offensive and defensive time outs. To be honest I don't even know if the Packers have called a TO while on defense but a TO on defense 2 minutes into the game if you notice you really have the wrong personnel in the game may be the difference between a TO and a TD. There also may be times on offense when the defense anticipates the play call and is set up very nicely to defend it. If Rodgers doesn't have time to audible out of it it may be better to take the TO than risk a good play by the defense.

    Its not a big deal as it still shows the Packers spend a lot of timeouts in situations where it may seem better to simply take the penalty. The play after the sack in the vikings game is a good example. Is 3/17 really that much better than 3/22.

    I think Rodgers is so intent on trying to figure out what the defense is going to do that he loses track sometimes. Still, they have a play called when he goes to the line. Even if he changes it there seems to be plenty of time to snap the ball. I wish, instead of calling timeout he would actually snap the ball and run the play that is called. Maybe he changes the call hoping the defense will react in a certain way and if they don't he knows the play won't work so he calls the timeout.

    Lastly, I think it is just ingrained into his head that going backwards is not acceptable so he refuses to take a delay of game penalty. It is frustrating but again, just looking at the numbers doesn't always tell the whole story.
    bboystyle
    6 years ago

    I was thinking a little about this today but on a different level, why does it seem like every single play the Packers seem to snap the ball with 1 or 2 seconds left on the play clock? Is it Mike McCarthy getting the play in late or Rodgers taking forever to try and figure out the defense? But with them taking so long is why you see the wasted time outs.

    Originally Posted by: dhazer 



    This. I hate the fact we wait until the very last second to snap that ball om every freaking down. I mean whats the advantage of this if youre not up late in the game?
    blueleopard
    6 years ago
    Not defending it. It does suck, but the Packers still have three rookies at WR, Graham and Lewis are new to the system, and whoever plays at RG obviously doesn't know the protections at times.
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