isocleas2
6 years ago

With the Bears @ 8 they will never trade.
The most expensive of your options NYJ @ 6 = 1600 points.
GB @ 14 = 1100 & @45 = 450 is close. The Jets may accept because they are getting 2 for 1. GB might have to sweeten the deal. 5th round = 35 more points.
Values courtesy drafttek . There are other draft charts but everyone I checked had the same values.
Ourlads, Walter Football, Pro Football Reference along with a host of minor websites all use these values.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



Thanks, sounds like its a pretty fair offer then. If Chubby is there at #6/7 make the offer, with the Packers likely to get a 3rd + some 5th round comp picks they can still draft for depth later or package them to move back into the 2nd round. But how often do the Packers get the chance to draft the top pass rusher?
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
6 years ago

[size=6]Yes, statistics can reduce players to numbers. You can try to calculate the risk and access potential from a formula if that is your pleasure, but can you measure grit, heart, and good sense.

Originally Posted by: Smokey 



yes
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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
6 years ago

Thanks, sounds like its a pretty fair offer then. If Chubby is there at #6/7 make the offer, with the Packers likely to get a 3rd + some 5th round comp picks they can still draft for depth later or package them to move back into the 2nd round. But how often do the Packers get the chance to draft the top pass rusher?

Originally Posted by: isocleas2 



Every single year. They simply have to want to pay for it.
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isocleas2
6 years ago

Every single year. They simply have to want to pay for it.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



What's the cost to move up from late 20's to #6? I'm guessing its more than a 1st and a 2nd. This year is one of the only years the packers are close enough to strike on a top 5 player without giving away all their picks.
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
6 years ago

What's the cost to move up from late 20's to #6? I'm guessing its more than a 1st and a 2nd. This year is one of the only years the packers are close enough to strike on a top 5 player without giving away all their picks.

Originally Posted by: isocleas2 



Of course it costs more. Probably takes 2 second round picks. Maybe more.

The point is a team can trade up any given year. They simply have to want to pay the cost. Whether or not it's a good thing to do is another issue.
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Rockmolder
6 years ago

What's the cost to move up from late 20's to #6? I'm guessing its more than a 1st and a 2nd. This year is one of the only years the packers are close enough to strike on a top 5 player without giving away all their picks.

Originally Posted by: isocleas2 



Let's say that late 20's is around 26 to make this easier. Pick 26 is worth 700 points. Our second rounder would be pick 58 which is worth 320 points. Our third rounder would be worth 140 points. Everything after round 3 is just chump change for a trade like this.

And I can't imagine the receiving team trading their 6th overall away for a load of crapshoot picks, while the Packers wouldn't want to give up an entire draft.

So that gets us up to 1.160 of the 1.600 we need.

The worth of future picks isn't on the draft chart, but as a rule of thumb you could state that value drops by around a round.

That means our first would be worth 320 points and our second 140 points, getting us up to 1.620.

In short, we could hypothetically trade for the 6th overall + 166th overall selection for the 26th, 58th, 90th + 26th & 58th next year. We'd better be getting the second coming of Reggie White along with a 6th rounder like Marco Rivera.

As a little side note. The chart in question is about 35 years old.  Since the league has changed tremendously, the chart has been changed, as well. It's just that teams don't publicly show this chart. Someone's made a pretty good approximation, though.

As a second little side note... I'm fully aware that this wasn't meant as a realistic scenario in the first place.
Rockmolder
6 years ago
I figure Roquan Smith would play at ILB, Smokey. He's an amazing player, but I'm not that big a fan of going for a player of low positional value now that we're in a spot we don't get to pick all that often.

Vita Vea is interesting. He has the potential to become an all-around beast. With Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark already on the D-line, you could make that into one of the elite 3-4 lines in the league. There's one thing I don't like about that pick, though. Our DC is known for changing up formations. As soon as you take out one DE/DT/NT, you're taking away one of your (potentially) best players. Also, with Matthews as an average rusher, Perry injured every 3rd game and little behind those guys, we'd be depending on a 3-4 D-line to get to the passer quite a bit. That's not an ideal situation when you also want to play fundamentally sound defense.

That said, having two guys who can play anywhere from the 0-technique to the 5-technique does make for some flexibility along the line. And keeping those big guys fresh really helps you at the end of games.
Smokey
  • Smokey
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
6 years ago
Lets assume for a moment that the Packers pick Arden Key. Matthews, Perry, and Key substitute in/out on situational downs. All three would a scary thing for teams in 3rd and long downs. Could a new "Wrecking Crew" in GB.
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Rockmolder
6 years ago

Lets assume for a moment that the Packers pick Arden Key. Matthews, Perry, and Key substitute in/out on situational downs. All three would a scary thing for teams in 3rd and long downs. Could a new "Wrecking Crew" in GB.

Originally Posted by: Smokey 



That would be great. Don't know if they'll be a wrecking crew, as Matthews has been awfully average and Perry is good, but not great, but getting the top pass rusher in the draft would sure be a ridiculous upgrade.
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