nerdmann
8 years ago

You can lie to yourself all you want. Reality is you don't know what plays are called, what the defensive tendencies are for each team and individual player tendencies on those teams, what checks were made. The simple fact that if a defense lines up a certain way, it will change the progressions of the play.

And it is amazing how you can contradict yourself in a single post. With all these screw ups by Rodgers that are so easy to see that even a Barfarn can do it. If that is the case, wouldn't McCarthy be to blame for letting it go on?

Originally Posted by: PackFanWithTwins 



So you're saying Mike WANTS Aaron to hold the ball for 8+, passing up open guys underneath to throw deep?
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
PackFanWithTwins
8 years ago

So you're saying Mike WANTS Aaron to hold the ball for 8+, passing up open guys underneath to throw deep?

Originally Posted by: nerdmann 



No I'm saying you don't know what plays are called so you have no idea if or if not Rodgers is passing on receivers when he shouldn't be.
The world needs ditch diggers too Danny!!!
wpr
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  • Preferred Member
8 years ago

lol, touche. But my point is the top 2-3 QBs in the history of football can't necessarily be the metric of a successful, good, or even great QB. Those 2-3 are the best 2-3 for a reason. Most will never be that good, but that doesn't mean they still aren't great QBs.

Although I still contend everyone would think differently about Aaron Rodgers if he had the defenses Brady has often had.

Originally Posted by: DoddPower 



I know what you meant Dodd and I agree. It was too easy especially on a Packer board. I was hoping you would notice that even though Starr was selected in the 17th round, he was pick # 200. Brady in the 6th round was selection number 199.
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nerdmann
8 years ago

No I'm saying you don't know what plays are called so you have no idea if or if not Rodgers is passing on receivers when he shouldn't be.

Originally Posted by: PackFanWithTwins 



He shouldn't throw to the open guy?
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
Porforis
8 years ago

I'm in favor of hitting the open guy, like Tom Brady. Being able to strike deep is nice, but let's just move the chains this year, so we don't end up 4-6 with our backs against the wall.

Originally Posted by: nerdmann 



The problem is when people confuse "There's a play with an easy read that's open from 1.2s to 2.0s, with multiple downfield routes (some of which are favorable matchups) every 5th or 6th play that Rodgers chooses to pass up in favor of hoping a downfield route opens up" with "Rodgers chucks it deep most of the time and ignores the easy read". And uses the time every other game he passes up someone that's past the 1st down marker on third down in favor of someone downfield as the rule, rather than the exception.

Or equates "Passing downfield when there's someone open 2 yards from the LOS" with "always bad", especially with Rodgers perpetually being at over 50% completion percentage with balls that travel over 20 yards in the air.
Porforis
8 years ago

He shouldn't throw to the open guy?

Originally Posted by: nerdmann 



It depends. Should he throw to the guy open 8 yards downfield on 1st down? Sure.

If it's 2nd and 10, should he throw to his dumpoff option that's behind the LOS with only one blocker? Nope.

All of these things also vary based on the pressure, protection package, matchups, etc. While you'd like to apply a blanket "if he's open, throw", some individuals on this board might equate that with whoring the completion percentage stat rather than being concerned with the success of the team (moving the chains and scoring points), being mindful of the position on the field and other factors beyond just "complete the ball as much as was humanly possible". This is mildly sarcastic but there actually were people earlier in his career claiming he was obsessed over his completion percentage, so yeah can't win.
Smokey
8 years ago
From what I observed last season , the QB to WR/TE/RB connection was dreadfully out of sync or the receivers were too tightly covered risk a pass . Rodgers great ability to make a play work on the fly was , IMO , the greatest factor in GB's 2016 success . Debating this pass pattern vs that pass pattern is useless when the receiver can't get open . It was just for that reason that GB resorted to the shorter "dump off" passes by the end of the 2016 season .

During the recent OTA's , greater focus was placed on the swing pass to the RB. I believe that greater focus will be placed upon the shorter passing game to the RB's and the TE's this TC . In addition , the precision timing that should exist between the QB and his WR's should get a good start this TC. If that timing can get back into sync. , it should help the short passing game as well.

As far as Rodger's longevity , I believe he will continue as long as he feels that he can do the job. When the day comes that feels that it's time to retire , he'll tell us . Until then, enjoy the ride while it's still available . [ar]


[cheers]

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Barfarn
8 years ago

You can lie to yourself all you want. Reality is you don't know what plays are called, what the defensive tendencies are for each team and individual player tendencies on those teams, what checks were made. The simple fact that if a defense lines up a certain way, it will change the progressions of the play.

And it is amazing how you can contradict yourself in a single post. With all these screw ups by Rodgers that are so easy to see that even a Barfarn can do it. If that is the case, wouldn't McCarthy be to blame for letting it go on?

Originally Posted by: PackFanWithTwins 



WRONG! In MM’s system the way the D lines up will not affect “the progression!” It may cause a check or audible to a different formation or play, but the progression for the play called is the progression that must be executed. The D’s alignment or post snap reaction may affect the direction the route is run; so the spot may change; but the TIMING of when the receiver is supposed to be looking for the ball NEVER changes. That is what makes his system so utterly unstoppable; but difficult to execute. The WR studies the play knowing he has to be at this spot at this time; except, for example, when the safety or LB does that, then you have to be at another spot at the same time as you were supposed to be when going to that other spot. And his “move” has to be timed just right to gain max separation at whatever spot and time the play dictates. This is absolutely mind blowing for a young receiver; you cant judge too harshly too early.

Also factored in the progression is the choreographing of the OL to create a window especially for shorter passes; and BTW the DL are coached to recognize plays and get in the throwing lanes.

And then there’s “alerts” for Rodgers to watch for certain things that cause receivers not schemed into the progression or having been passed in the progression making a secondary move to be wide open. Many of the big plays that look like luck or a breakdown are actually somewhat designed into the play.

The problem is NOT the coaching!!! And anyone who says the O is too simplistic is just roundhouse stupid!

At any rate you look at the play and you notice they’re doubling a lousy DT and singling or not blocking an all pro DLman. Makes no sense, until you see the WR looking for the ball in the window created by the double team.

For example, in the trio zip cluster left Apache 6 hot Z snag, the OL seal blocks and pushes 3 left DL left as far as possible and the DE on right side is picked up only by RB. Makes no sense! Until you realize the idea is to draw the unblocked DE into the backfield to create a HUGE window on the entire right side for the H and Z to cross. The RB is there just to slow the DE down a bit. And the Y runs a corner post to clear; but he’s on “alert;” if by chance both slot and OCBs bite down on cross he’ll be WIDE open.

If you understand and study these philosophies and principles you can often very accurately diagnose what happened. And a few times a game, you see the EXACT play that was run. When you see the play perfectly executed as designed it is a magical feeling.

That said, you have to be aware that MM is one tricky SOB. He always develops innovative wrinkles. Several times a game, he will run a play that was successful in the weeks before and he knows it was scouted and prepared for. So he sets up exact formation, everyone executing exact, except one little seemingly irrational unscoutable wrinkle. These unscoutable wrinkles can appear as a screw-up to an outsider, which is me in the weeks that Mike and I don’t discuss his game plan at length 😂 😂.

And sometimes ya think ya know what’s happening and ya just don’t. But, this is the first thing that comes to mind whenever I evaluate a play. My evaluations of Rodgers are generally correct notwithstanding that several plays were certainly misevaluated to varying degrees. When going back and grading pre-2015 games, w/ the same evaluation techniques there is almost perfection, no more than 2-3 goofs a game, the bushels full of problems in last 2.

I say its tough for WRs, what about a QB? For many years I saw Rodgers handle this system in a way that words can only do injustice to. Most just saw the stats, I saw his unspeakable brilliant execution in the scheme. Then at the end of the Jax game he saw Cobb wide open and says he doesn’t know why he didn’t throw it? I don’t know what happened to him in 2015 and ‘16; but I’m telling you, his approach and execution was not the same as it was 2009 to 2014 and the guy who plays in crunch time in playoffs was someone else as well.

I assure you MM didn’t “let it go on.” I’m sure he has and will try everything. If you’ve ever managed people you now ya gotta be a god damned psychologist today and you’d have great employees’ work suffer because of divorces, custody battle, drugs or other personal issues. As a human you don’t want cast them aside; as a boss ya hope you can help and time will heal. Why didn’t MM bench him? We might learn it if Mike writes a book 20 years from now. Crosby wasn’t nearly relatively as good as Rodgers and MM stuck with him, even though he was pretty damn bad. You saw me call for Rodgers’ benchin’ and trade to Denver 😂; but never criticized MM or Ted for not doing it. They’re in the best position to judge if a player, a man, is worthy of receiving none, 2 or 50 chances. There is no contradiction there, it just that most life is a bit more complicated and works on a sliding scale, than being as monosyllabically easy as, “Rodgers bad, Rodgers benched.”
DoddPower
8 years ago

Have the Patriots really had that much more talent? I don't think they have. This is where I think it is more a coaching difference. McCarthy seems more stuck that the players need to perform in what he wants to do, and the Pats seem more inclined to change what they do depending on the players they have available.

Originally Posted by: PackFanWithTwins 



Be it talent or coaching (I happen to think it's a bit of both), the Patriots have undoubtedly had better defenses than the Packers have had in Aaron Rodgers career. Ultimately, it doesn't matter if it's talent or coaching, it just matters how the defense performs.

It's fair to say Brady executes his system to perfection. He works perfect within the system. Some could argue he is a "system QB." I have never thought that's a bad thing through.

I think it'd be amazing to watch Belichick get a hold of Rodgers early in his career, though. That's not saying McCarthy hasn't done a good job, I just think Belichick would do better.
PackFanWithTwins
8 years ago

Be it talent or coaching (I happen to think it's a bit of both), the Patriots have undoubtedly had better defenses than the Packers have had in Aaron Rodgers career. Ultimately, it doesn't matter if it's talent or coaching, it just matters how the defense performs.

It's fair to say Brady executes his system to perfection. He works perfect within the system. Some could argue he is a "system QB." I have never thought that's a bad thing through.

I think it'd be amazing to watch Belichick get a hold of Rodgers early in his career, though. That's not saying McCarthy hasn't done a good job, I just think Belichick would do better.

Originally Posted by: DoddPower 



What gets me is how Belicheck changes to the players he has. Its not like the Pats have just been dump it off offenses all the time. They have done it with TE, they have done it with Welker on crossing routes, they have done it with Moss and deep routes, running backs. It doesn't seem to matter. Gronk gets hurt no problem, just switch to other receivers. Hell he is 14-6 without Brady starting.

McCarthy even comes out and says, they do no switch the offense when players get hurt, they just keep calling the same plays and expect the next man up to perform. We have seen in when Finley went down, it took almost 1/2 a season to realize that he couldn't just keep running the same gameplan with Quarless. Same when Jordy went out.
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