RUN THE BALL! · PACKERSHOME

beast
Select Member Topic Starter

8 years ago

When it comes to the Packers @ Falcons game, all the talk is about passing the ball, but the path to victory very well might be to get the running game going, especially for the Packers.

The Falcons defense seems to be all about pass and getting after the passer and they showed how they can put pressure on the QB even if they get out of the pocket by using a speed LB as a spy (even if they dislike that term). With the Falcons' focus on the pass plays, they are giving up an average of 6.9 yards per attempt , which is 11th best in the NFL.

But since they focus on the passing game so much (and surely will with Rodgers at QB), that leaves them open for the running game. NFL lives showed some tape of the Falcons where they had odd DL placement which left them with horrible position for run defense with a DL inside the C and another outside the OT... but at the line it was basically a 4 on 2, which 2 LBers there to battle the OL and tackle the RB... one great block or one broken tackle and a RB could (and they showed) where off to the races.

Which is why the Falcons defense was 26th and one of the only 7 teams that gave up over 4.5 yards per rush attempt. This game could be all about how well the Packers are able to get their running game going and keep the Falcons offense (and Packers defense) off the field with long scoring drives. Not allowing Matt Ryan to get into a rhythm and pressure up the middle if the coverage can hold long enough.

There was a reason Rip had his second best game running the ball against there guys, and if healthy and ready to go, hopefully Monty and Michael could have even bigger days especially if they can catch them with their run defenders off the field and then go no huddle.

Also while it's labeled a 4-3... their defense seems like it's a 4-3/3-4 hybrid like the Seahawks used to run (and I think the Broncos still do). Basically one DE is a former 3-4 OLB, and the power DE is a former 3-4 DE (and good run defender), with the OLB in Vic Beasley being the edge guy on that side. But if the Packers can run the ball on them, it could be an extremely long day for the Falcons.

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uffda udfa
Veteran Member

8 years ago

I agree. Montgomery is key. 200 yards from scrimmage for him and a win in the 20's.

Thought before a double 40 burger was coming. I now think a much tighter run heavy game is coming with a 27-23 score coming.

It would help to jump up early through the air and then control it on the ground the rest of the way.

Glad you've come around on the ineptness of the Falcons D. It's worse than the Cowboys. We can do what we want to them run or pass. With our D, I'd pick.the run to protect our secondary.

Man, turnovers are going to count double as to their importance in this one. Aaron can't fumble or throw one to them.

Ted Thompson sits on his hands per former GM: "because they’ve had 25 fricking years of great quarterbacks. Of course it works. Try it without a special quarterback."

beast
Select Member Topic Starter

8 years ago

Glad you've come around on the ineptness of the Falcons D.

Originally Posted by: uffda udfa

The only thing that has changed you added your assumptions... which seem to be wrong once again, as I haven't come around and still don't agree with you.

You have a problem, where you add assumptions and read into things, injecting your own opinion (like that I have come around)... My opinion is the same opinion as before, it's just written in a different way and therefore your assumptions went the opposite way.

I still believe the Falcons clearly have a better pass rush than the Cowboys. And they got a couple of speed LBers, not just Sean Lee.

Just because I think the Falcons have a bad run defense scheme doesn't change that... but somehow it changed your assumptions, from where you were disagreeing with me to now assuming my opinion changed to agree with you.

buckeyepackfan
Veteran Member

8 years ago

Originally Posted by: beast

Like what you are saying.
Going to be up to Aaron to look over the D and check to the correct call.
He does that well.
I'm thinking Atlanta will also try and establish their run game early.
They will want to keep Aaron off the field as much as The Packers want to keep Ryan off.
If it all breaks down then look out, we may get to watch a shootout.
I still favor The Pack in that scenario.
Good to once again be one of the final 4 standing.

I was addicted to The Hokey Pokey, but I turned myself around!

uffda udfa
Veteran Member

8 years ago

Smile, beast. My goodness. I added the come around just for fun.

You said days ago Atlanta's D was better than the Cowboys. The season stats don't show that whether run, pass or total defense. Dallas was superior to them in those 3 categories. Their ability to rush the passer hasn't translated to anything but a bottom of the barrel pass D overall. Clayborn is gone so they're even weaker in ability to pressure.

I will grant you that most teams had to pass it vs. Atlanta and their division features some good pass offenses but their D is really bad. Really, really, really bad. Almost Packers bad in totality. As bad as I think ours is, they're worse. I think you still give them too much credit and your insistence they're better than Dallas is not backed up by the numbers regardless of who pressures better.

BTW, Dallas had 36 sacks on the season compared to 34 for Atlanta. Dallas, again, is superior to Atlanta in yet another defensive category which backs up what I've been saying. This is an easier matchup for our offense and Atlanta doesn't have a better pass D or even the ability to pressure like Dallas especially with Clayborn out. Dallas had just gotten DeMarcus Lawrence back to make their rush better so I'm not sure why you keep crediting the Falcons D when it isn't due?

Ted Thompson sits on his hands per former GM: "because they’ve had 25 fricking years of great quarterbacks. Of course it works. Try it without a special quarterback."

beast
Select Member Topic Starter

8 years ago

Originally Posted by: buckeyepackfan

Also among non-QBs with at least 25 carries this season, Montgomery leads the NFL in rushing yards per carry average with 5.9 and Ripkowski (averaging 4.4 this year) got 5.7 yards average against the Falcons.

Smokey
Veteran Member

8 years ago

I'd like to agree with you , but I don't. Just running the ball would see Atlanta stack the box. Just passing the ball would see Atlanta rushing with every blitz package that they run.

BALANCE IS THE KEY, and Coach McCarthy knows it. He will run plays that take advantage of weak or suspect Atlanta personal. With the WR's dinged up, look for more 2 TE sets with Cook / Rodger's . Yes , they will run the ball with Montgomery / Ripkowski . The GB Offense will score points, but I'm more concerned with the Defense.

IMO, it will be a close game that will be determined by the turnovers.

Green Bay --- 38
Atlanta --- 34

[cheers]

luigis
Member

8 years ago

I don't know if you have watched Atlanta this season. Their DL is quite good against the run.
They have a bad secondary and their best safety (Neal) plays better if he can play close to the line.
By running you only make them use their players in their best configuration.

I want Neal defending the pass, it's like Burnett covering deep, you can imagine it.

I would only run if they are in dime and it is 1st or 2nd down.

Luis

mojaveson
Member

8 years ago

Ryan had a great regular season, but he's never been under the kind of pressure that he'll face today with the Super Bowl on the line. And I think that pressure will get to him, somewhat. I predict he'll throw an INT late in the game that will seal a Green Bay victory.

Winners never quit and quitters never win. - Vince Lombardi

beast
Select Member Topic Starter

8 years ago

#10

Originally Posted by: luigis

You can't just simply run it, you have to read the defense, but the Falcons do some things that get them in trouble in the run game, such as line up with their DL spread wide at times which helps with the pass rush and hurts with run defense.

But the Falcons defense is in the last 8 in yards given up per rush, most 20+ yard runs this season...
given up the 16th most amount of yards despite having the 5th least amount of runs against them because other teams are passing the ball more trying to keep up.

In other words, lots of teams had the ball ran against them more often, and STILL gave up lower number of yards than the Falcons.

The Saints defense had the ball run against them 48 more times and they gave up 46 less yards than the Falcons.

This means the Falcons offense is so good at scoring, they're forcing teams to try to pass the ball more to try to keep up... which is hiding a rather poor run defense at least via season stats. And if a team can keep the score tight, they should be able to run it on the Falcons.

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