2016 path to 2nd seed (no more chance)· Page 2

mi_keys
Senior Member

8 years ago

You use CBS and Yahoo! and I'll raise you NFL.com and FoxSports.com and MMQB.com which have Packers 8th and Buccaneers 7th!!

BUT -- FoxSports and MMQB also have them flipped on their NFL Standings so they are just as freaking confused as me! lol

Your move!! lol

I'm leaning towards the common games thing is an error and it's supposed to slide to the next tie-breaker.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool

You'd think something as simple as standings would be presented consistently across all major sports media. I suppose not.

Assuming CBS and the strength of victory tiebreaker crew are correct, and Green Bay is currently edging Tampa, it's important to note that the strength of tiebreaker could swing back in Tampa's favor depending on results across the league over the next two weeks (i.e. teams Tampa Bay beat outperform teams Green Bay beat).

Born and bred a cheesehead

Zero2Cool
Elite Member Topic Starter

8 years ago

#12

Originally Posted by: mi_keys

It is a little mind boggling. The rules are printed in black and white and how some can show accuracy and some be wrong is just baffling.

I'm fairly confident the common games thing is probably using the data from the prior week since this week has yet to conclude and therefore it is off. I bet this time tomorrow Packers are ahead of Buccaneers in all standings.

Barfarn
Senior Member

8 years ago

#13

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool

Mi Keys' common game analysis is spot on. These guys are calculating this stuff for everyone, we focus only on GB. Our analysis will generally be more reliable. Just be glad Wash has a tie; this gets real spoke in a 3 way tie break.

ON SOV and SOS I don't use W/L%, I just count the # of wins [and this year ya gotta watch for ties, but they cancel in every situation between GB and TB]. It gives a better feel for just how close the tie break is.

Right now:
We are 1 win ahead of TB in Strength of victory, if Carolina wins tonight, which we're hoping for to get ahead of Wash...then we will be tied with TB for SOV.

Then, we're onto strength of schedule. Presently GB has a solid lead of 6 wins that will be reduced to 5 if Carolina wins and increases to 7 if Wash wins. We'll also pick up 16 wins for Minn and Det in coming 2 weeks to 11 for TB for playing NO and CAR [12 if Car wins tonight]. So assuming Car wins, we'll have an almost insurmountable lead of 9 wins on SOS.

Many games cancel each other [EG KC plays SD in week 17/NY plays Philly in week 16; making it so TB cant pick up any ground/we cant lose any ground] and considering our SOS teams already have a 9 game lead and are presumably better; if we end up tied in SOV, we will win the SOS tie break unless something real freaky occurs.

Zero2Cool
Elite Member Topic Starter

8 years ago

#14

Originally Posted by: Barfarn

He said what I had said, didn't he? lol.

I am calculating for everyone, not just the Packers. My goodness, you think statistical analysis is something I just started doing this morning on the crapper? (ps, you'd be right!)

I am not glad Redskins have a TIE, I would rather them have a LOSS instead.

beast
Select Member

8 years ago

#15

The Packers can actually reach the 2nd seed.

With a lot of pixy dust.

Buccaneers must lose 2 of last 3 (Cowboys, Saints and Panthers)
Falcons must lose against Panthers AND Saints
Seahawks must lose to Cardinals AND 49ers
Packers must beat Vikings AND Lions

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool

It's very hard to picture the Seahawks losing to these 49ers, who settled in and looking towards next year, not fighting out each game like the Bears seem to be doing. Then again, the Seahawks STILL haven't won against an NFC team on the road (yet).

Seahawks road games
Preseason
W - Chiefs (not NFC)
W - Raiders (not NFC)
Real Season
L - Rams
W - Jets (not NFC)
T - Cardinals
L - Saints
W - Patriots (not NFC)
L - Buccaneers
L - Packers
? - 49ers

So I guess... if the 49ers try hard... there is a chance?

I believe we are in a win and you're in scenario now. I haven't found a path with both wins and missing playoffs.

The Packers can actually lose against Lions and still make playoffs. They just need Redskins to lose 2 of last 3 and Buccaneers to lose all three.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool

Yep, if the Packers win both games then they're the Division Champions, and division champs get a home playoff game.

I haven't look in the "what-ifs" of them losing lately, but I find it interesting you mentioned losing to the Lions and can still get in... is that also true for the Vikings? .... a week ago, I just used that link that was posted in the thread you give me a hard time by not explaining something in chat... and it seemed to suggest that the Vikings game was more important than the Lions game for some reason... like the Packers had a higher chance of earning a wildcard spot by beating the Vikings and losing to the Lions than they did of losing to the Vikings and losing to the Lions. I just found it interesting that according to that site, the Vikings game was more important to the Packers because of some tie breaking rule(s).

But bottom line, if the Packers win their last two games, then they're in. Of course... the Vikings would love to spoil that for the Packers and they're next.... and while the Vikings have seriously struggled, their problems have been with stopping the pass rush.... while injuries have been doing a great job recently of stopping the pass rush for the other teams. Packers need to make sure they can get pressure against the Vikings backfield before the ball gets out of the backfield.

Zero2Cool
Elite Member Topic Starter

8 years ago

#16

I haven't look in the "what-ifs" of them losing lately, but I find it interesting you mentioned losing to the Lions and can still get in... is that also true for the Vikings?

Originally Posted by: beast

Packers can lose to Vikings and beat Lions and they'd still get the division. Does that answer your question? If not, I'm afraid I'm not following what ya asking.

If Packers win vs Vikings and lose to Lions, they need help to get in. But, if they lose to Vikings and beat Lions, nothing else really matters because Packers win tie-breaker over Lions for division.

Zero2Cool
Elite Member Topic Starter

8 years ago

#17

The tie-breaker rules are as follows for Wild-Card team.
[list=1]

Head-to-head, if applicable.

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

Strength of victory.

Strength of schedule.

Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

Best net points in conference games.

Best net points in all games.

Best net touchdowns in all games.

Coin toss.[/list]

1: Buccaneers and Packers did not play each other.
2: Both are 6 - 4
3: Both are 3 - 2
4: Both have .442
5: Packers .510 and Buccaneers .505

And that is why Packers are 6th seed and Buccaneers are 7th seed in the current conference standings.

And if you doubt that, here is the official stuff from NFL's Game Statistic and Information System.

steveishere
Veteran Member

8 years ago

#18

Packers can lose to Vikings and beat Lions and they'd still get the division. Does that answer your question? If not, I'm afraid I'm not following what ya asking.

If Packers win vs Vikings and lose to Lions, they need help to get in. But, if they lose to Vikings and beat Lions, nothing else really matters because Packers win tie-breaker over Lions for division.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool

That's only if Detroit loses to Dallas. If they beat Dallas and we lose to Minnesota they still have 1 more win than us even if we beat them for a 2nd time.

nerdmann
Premier Member

8 years ago

#19

The tie-breaker rules are as follows for Wild-Card team.
[list=1]

Head-to-head, if applicable.

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

Strength of victory.

Strength of schedule.

Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

Best net points in conference games.

Best net points in all games.

Best net touchdowns in all games.

Coin toss.[/list]

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool

Whoa, we're IN as of right now!? That blows my mind man! It's a wild card, but we're on the inside looking out. Let's keep this going!

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

Zero2Cool
Elite Member Topic Starter

8 years ago

#20

That's only if Detroit loses to Dallas. If they beat Dallas and we lose to Minnesota they still have 1 more win than us even if we beat them for a 2nd time.

Originally Posted by: steveishere

This is accurate.

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