Barfarn
8 years ago

This displays a common irrational bias towards performance in the fourth quarter.

Originally Posted by: Porforis 



WOW! It's not a "confirmation irrational bias"...It's the reality of playing a 60 minute game against a human opponent.

In the first 2.5 quarters in Seattle champ game The O built a 16 point lead; Seattle in the last 1.5 Quarters to react to that deficit. Had the O had built that lead from middle of 2nd Q to end of 4th, it would have been impossible Seattle to react to the deficit.

Every week teams come back from 14 point deficits in 1st Q; rarely are 14 pt deficits made up in the 4th Q.

Closers dont make more money than middle relievers in baseball because 30 baseball GMs have a confirmation irrational bias of getting the final 3 outs in a game.

The play at the end of the game is ALWAYS more important than the play in the beginning....ALWAYS!
Barfarn
8 years ago

If you paid any attention to my body of posts, I put conscious effort into giving due criticism whenever I'm "defending" Rodgers, or any other aspect of the team. You clearly have an obsession with Aaron Rodgers and take every opportunity possible to blame him for a situation. Yes I was being facetious, but my point was that you're coming off as if this is a very emotional or personal issue for you, as your blame and rage is singularly focused on one player.
....
My main point is, blaming complex situations on a 53 man football team in the NFL where every week we play someone new with different coaches and officiating on a single player is positively ridiculous.

Originally Posted by: Porforis 



I read your posts much more carefully than you read mine. Just because we disagree does mean I'm acting with an "emotional personal rage."

I predicted Rodgers would play well in Atl and my comments are his overall play are POSITIVE. But that is not what this thread is about, it is about whether Mike can "seal the deal." My argument is Mike can seal the deal, the problem is his QB and then I EMPIRICALLY support my argument.

I describe errors by Allison and Tretter that assisted in ending the first 2 2nd half drives, doesn't sound like an emotional rage to me.

I state Rodgers absolutely choked on the last drive; again not an ad hominem attack, it's an empirical scholarly judgment. I lay out each play to support my argument; but rather than address the plays, or my conclusion from the plays, you call me irrational, emotional, raging, personal. I assure you there is no "rage" against Rodgers. And if you make a good argument I will listen and change my mind. But, you dont make a counter argument because you know you cant; but also you cant psychologically come to grips with Rodgers sucking at times; so you resort to an ad hominem logic error.

I said Rodgers is a bad teammate and he's scarred of pass rush and that affects his ability to "seal the deal. And again I provide an empirical argument to support that position. If you disagree then address the argument.

Trying to get some of you to get off your statistical biases, like the D giving up 32 points means they sucked or if Rodgers gets 300 yards means he played great. Sure, usually that is the case, but not all the time. Our coverage and pass rush was quite good, just about every play we had 4 rushers pushing their guys back into Ryan's lap and DBs within a yard of the receivers. Better coverage or guys rushing harder wouldn't have changed a thing because Ryan was unreal. So who had to play better for the win, the D, Nelson, Adams, Jackson? of course not, there is only one possible answer: Rodgers needed to play really well not in 6 of 9 drives; but in at least 7 of 9. And to win 3-4 PO games in a row, he needs to "seal the deal" more consistently. 6 of 9 might work in 1 or 2 games, but not in 3 or 4 in a row.
DoddPower
8 years ago

Trying to get some of you to get off your statistical biases, like the D giving up 32 points means they sucked or if Rodgers gets 300 yards means he played great.

Originally Posted by: Barfarn 



I'm confused, where are people saying that Rodgers played "great" because he "gets" 300 yards? I have read some posts (including my own) that said he played good enough to win. That's a long shot from "great." He did play well; of course he could have played better. I'm sure he wishes he did and I'm sure he tried his best. The point is that if the rest of the Packers played equally as well as Rodgers, the outcome of this game would have been much different. But it's the same old song and dance with the Packers. If Rodgers doesn't truly play "great" or dominate a game, the Packers are very unlikely to beat a good-to-great team with a franchise QB. It doesn't have to be that way, but I don't see that changing any time soon.

Zero2Cool
8 years ago
I believe Mike has been married twice, therefore, he most certainly CAN seal the deal.
UserPostedImage
TheKanataThrilla
8 years ago

I'm confused, where are people saying that Rodgers played "great" because he "gets" 300 yards? I have read some posts (including my own) that said he played good enough to win. That's a long shot from "great." He did play well; of course he could have played better. I'm sure he wishes he did and I'm sure he tried his best. The point is that if the rest of the Packers played equally as well as Rodgers, the outcome of this game would have been much different. But it's the same old song and dance with the Packers. If Rodgers doesn't truly play "great" or dominate a game, the Packers are very unlikely to beat a good-to-great team with a franchise QB. It doesn't have to be that way, but I don't see that changing any time soon.

Originally Posted by: DoddPower 



I totally agree he played good enough to win, but our D wasn't there. HOWEVER, he still had the chance to put us in a position to pull out the win and did not. He is not a comeback kid and that absolutely sucks.

Zero2Cool
8 years ago
The timeout that was lost because of Jordy Nelson's injury really hurt the Packers trying to go the 50 or so yards to get into field goal range in :31 seconds. Instead of having the middle of the field and sideline available, the defense knew we were going to run out patterns. But hey, let's not take into account FOOTBALL and let's juts blast the Packers, you know, the team we CLAIM to be a fan of.

I wouldn't mind seeing how things would have been if we had at least two of our top three CB's and also Clay Matthews. I wonder if the defense could have stopped the Falcons on that last drive. It just sickening to know we relied on Demetri Goodson as one of the two starting CB's against the NFL's number one scoring offense.



1st and 10 at GB 25
(0:26 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short left to J.Janis ran ob at GB 32 for 7 yards

2nd and 3 at GB 32
(0:20 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to J.Nelson

(0:20 - 4th) Timeout #2 by GB at 00:20.

3rd and 3 at GB 32
(0:14 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to G.Allison (C.Goodwin)

4th and 3 at GB 32
(0:09 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to D.Adams
UserPostedImage
Porforis
8 years ago

Trying to get some of you to get off your statistical biases, like the D giving up 32 points means they sucked or if Rodgers gets 300 yards means he played great. Sure, usually that is the case, but not all the time. Our coverage and pass rush was quite good, just about every play we had 4 rushers pushing their guys back into Ryan's lap and DBs within a yard of the receivers. Better coverage or guys rushing harder wouldn't have changed a thing because Ryan was unreal. So who had to play better for the win, the D, Nelson, Adams, Jackson? of course not, there is only one possible answer: Rodgers needed to play really well not in 6 of 9 drives; but in at least 7 of 9. And to win 3-4 PO games in a row, he needs to "seal the deal" more consistently. 6 of 9 might work in 1 or 2 games, but not in 3 or 4 in a row.

Originally Posted by: Barfarn 



Way to dumb my argument down to "32 BAD. 300 GOOD. GRUNT GRUNT" when I spend an inordinate amount of time and effort to assign blame across the board and describe these problems as complex. Okay buddy.
DoddPower
8 years ago

I totally agree he played good enough to win, but our D wasn't there. HOWEVER, he still had the chance to put us in a position to pull out the win and did not. He is not a comeback kid and that absolutely sucks.

Originally Posted by: TheKanataThrilla 



He had like 30 seconds and two timeouts to drive for a field goal, and lost one timeout on an injury. That's asking a lot. It's more reasonable to ask the defense to play a little better than to ask Aaron Rodgers to constantly bail them out and generate some heroics. Mike Daniels said it well. The Packers scored enough points to win. None of those points were scored by the defense. Aaron Rodgers played well enough for the Packers to win. The Packers defense has to be better against franchise QBs, or they will never win another Super Bowl under this administration.
Barfarn
8 years ago

Way to dumb my argument down to "32 BAD. 300 GOOD. GRUNT GRUNT" when I spend an inordinate amount of time and effort to assign blame across the board and describe these problems as complex. Okay buddy.

Originally Posted by: Porforis 



Sometimes if a team loses, there is no one person responsible, because as Captain Obvious would say when a team loses there is ALWAYS a combination of things that many players did wrong.

But, when we say Player X cost us the game, we are saying that BUT FOR his failure to perform up to his contractual value X’s team would have won. To analyze this, you dont assign blame across the board, you evaluate each play, counting the number of plays a player sabotaged and the affect/timing of those sabotages. Yes Randall failed to follow Fitz across the middle, so an argument could be made he cost us the AZ game; something that could not be said if it occurred in the 1st Q or if someone else screwed up in a way that caused us not to win in regulation.

Let’s use an example less emotionally charged for Packer fans. Bears beat Vikes because the OTs sucked. Sure Bradford missed a TD and a few other throws, yes the D gave up 20; but had the OTs been serviceable, Minny would have won. And actually if the OTs did their job, I bet Bradford doesn’t miss all those throws and the D doesn’t give up 20. Norv Turner quit because he knew he could not execute his offense once the trade deadline passed.

Did the OTs do some things correctly? Of course they did, each actually successfully blocked a lot more than they failed. So do we look at the 60-65% of the plays where they did their job and say, get off their case? Of course not, given their contract/draft capital status they should have performed on at least 90% of plays.

Now, if we apply these very principles to Rodgers’ play in Atl; then you’ll be in the proper position of understanding. Ask what % of plays can we afford our 22M QB to screw up before it costs us a game; in Atl Rodgers hit that mark! Other guys did do things wrong; but only 1 name fills in this blank:
Had _____________ performed up to his contractual value, GB would have “sealed the deal” v. Atl.
Porforis
8 years ago

Let’s use an example less emotionally charged for Packer fans. Bears beat Vikes because the OTs sucked. Sure Bradford missed a TD and a few other throws, yes the D gave up 20; but had the OTs been serviceable, Minny would have won. And actually if the OTs did their job, I bet Bradford doesn’t miss all those throws and the D doesn’t give up 20. Norv Turner quit because he knew he could not execute his offense once the trade deadline passed.

Did the OTs do some things correctly? Of course they did, each actually successfully blocked a lot more than they failed. So do we look at the 60-65% of the plays where they did their job and say, get off their case? Of course not, given their contract/draft capital status they should have performed on at least 90% of plays.

Now, if we apply these very principles to Rodgers’ play in Atl; then you’ll be in the proper position of understanding. Ask what % of plays can we afford our 22M QB to screw up before it costs us a game; in Atl Rodgers hit that mark! Other guys did do things wrong; but only 1 name fills in this blank:
Had _____________ performed up to his contractual value, GB would have “sealed the deal” v. Atl.

Originally Posted by: Barfarn 



I'm not applying different standards out of some sort of emotional connection to the Packers. Your logic is so laughably easily used to counter your own conclusion I'm not even sure how to approach this.

Bears beat Vikes because the the defense sucked. Sure Bradford missed a TD and a few other throws, yes the OTs suck and put the D in a position to win; but had the defense been serviceable, Minny would have won. And actually if the defense did their job, I bet Bradford scores more points because they get better field position and are controlling the clock.

Now, I'm not pretending there's different degrees of blame. Yes, the OL shoulders more blame than any one component of the team. But yet again, you're laser focused on ONE person who you choose to assign all the blame on. Sure, when people repeatedly hammer you for it you'll give a "Yeah I suppose other people could have played better but RODGERS RODGERS RODGERS". Are you one of those guys that complains about legitimately bad calls in the 3rd quarter and say it cost your team the game? No, it didn't. Yes, they got screwed. Yes, it probably cost points. But if you want to win in this league you need to be able to get beyond these issues because they happen every single week.

Rogers should have played better which would have made it easier on the defense and his receivers
The RBs should have played better which would have made it easier on Rodgers and the WRs
McCarthy should have called better plays and run the ball more to make it easier on the offense
The offense as a whole should have played better so the defense wasn't on the field as much
The defense should have played better which would have made it easier on the offense

You want to nitpick about percentages? Fine. You want to say it's 80/5/5/5 blame? I don't necessarily agree but I'm not going to not respect your reasoning because of it and I'll be more interested in what you have to say. But yet again, you're fixating on one singular player and in some cases, twisting things to make it appear to be entirely or almost entirely one player's fault when your logic can easily be turned around to counter your own conclusions. I don't get it. You keep going back to his salary every time you start trying to justify why anything that's even partially his fault is entirely his fault. Yes, if you're talking about his value to his team he's relevant. But if you're talking about what makes teams win and lose individual football games, that's not the way that works.
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Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : Even with the context it's ... what?
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beast (20-Nov) : We brought in a former Packers OL coach to help evaluate OL as a scout
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Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He landed good players thanks to high draft slot. He isn't good.
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He can shove his knowledge up his ass. He knows nothing.
beast (20-Nov) : More knowledge, just like bring in the Jets head coach
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : What? Why? Huh?
beast (19-Nov) : I wonder if the Packers might to try to bring Douglas in through Milt Hendrickson/Ravens connections
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : The Jets fired Joe Douglas, per sources
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Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Pretty sure Jets fired their scouting staff and just pluck former Packers.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Jets sign Anders Carlson to their 53.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : When you cycle the weeks, the total over remains for season. But you get your W/L for that selected week. Confusing.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the totals are accurate..nrvrtmind
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packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Who updates the leaderboard on NFLPickem?
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beast (18-Nov) : Dennis Green "They are what we thought they were, and we let them off the hook!"
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : comment of the day Z2Cool "Bears better than we want to admit. Packers worse than we think. It's facts."
Mucky Tundra (17-Nov) : my worst case scenario: Bears fix their oline and get a coach like Johnson from the Lions and his scheme
Zero2Cool (17-Nov) : Bears get OL fixed amd we might have a problem
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beast (17-Nov) : How so? (I didn't watch)
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wpr (15-Nov) : wow. That three different things for the kid.
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