What's Happened to Aaron Rodgers?

First, let's get something straight. Aaron Rodgers isn't playing poorly. Andy Dalton against the Steelers? That's playing poorly. Russell Wilson on one leg? That wasn't pretty. Blaine Gabbert was downright putrid.

No, Rodgers isn't playing poorly, but he is playing poorly for Aaron Rodgers. There's a difference.

For much of Rodgers' career, there were few like him in the history of football. He has the accuracy of Joe Montana, the football acumen of John Unitas, the mobility of Russell Wilson and the arm strength of Dan Marino.

He has long been, to me and others, the most complete quarterback ever to play the game.

But not lately. And we've seen this version of Rodgers for a large chunk of last season and through the first two games of this year. Against the Vikings on Sunday night, where he was 20-of-36 for 213 yards with one passing touchdown, one rushing score, one interception and one fumble. And despite carrying a 103.8 career passer rating, Rodgers hasn't reached the 100-point mark in any of his last 12 regular-season games.

It wasn't supposed to be like this. With Jordy Nelson back from injury, Green Bay's offense this season was supposed to be different. Rodgers was supposed to be different.

And maybe he will be. It's only two games. He might go on that familiar Rodgers tear and then we'll all shut up. But for now, something is clearly wrong.

What that is, however, has become one of the NFL's most compelling parlor games, focusing on a handful of possibilities:

Rodgers is hurt. I don't buy this one. He doesn't seem significantly injured, but I cannot stress how much this theory is making its way around some of the personnel men with whom I speak.

Two scouts who watched both of Rodgers' games this season told B/R something seems seriously off with him. Not so much with the offense, but him.

They, and others, think Rodgers is suffering from some sort of long-term issue, like a chronic shoulder problem. I heard similar speculation last season.

Jamie Squire/Getty Images
This is conspiracy theory stuff. Like UFOs. Well, wait, UFOs are real. Like the Loch Ness Monster. Not buying it yet.

The offense isn't playing to his strengths. Said one AFC scout: "He's one of the greatest downfield throwers this league has ever seen but they run a dink-and-dunk offense."

I'm not certain how accurate this is, but I would say, with one exception, Rodgers doesn't have the high-quality receivers to run an explosive, downfield offense.

The offensive talent around him just isn't that good. This is the theory I believe.

Look at the roster. Nelson is good, but he's a 31-year-old receiver whose game is built on speed coming off a serious knee injury. The offensive line is OK. The running game is OK. The other receivers are OK. The defense is OK. That's a lot of OK.

Yes, Rodgers could play better, a lot better, for sure. Yet when I watch the Packers, so much is still on Rodgers' shoulders.

There's no Stefon Diggs. Or DeAndre Hopkins. When Le'Veon Bell was suspended, the Steelers turned to DeAngelo Williams, and he responded.

Which player (not named Rodgers) on this Packers team can you turn look at and say, "That guy will bail them out?"

The problem with Aaron Rodgers is all of us. That is what one general manager told me. The expectations for Rodgers are so stratospheric they're unrealistic. There is some truth to this.

"No other quarterback is held to the standard he is," the general manager said. "Not even Tom Brady."

It's only two games into the season. The Packers are my Super Bowl pick. That hasn't changed. Too early to change that, or my belief that Rodgers will one day be viewed as the best ever to play the position, a spot, to me, that Brady holds currently.

Now, though, something is not right. It wasn't supposed to be like this. Even after just two weeks.

It will get better, but in the meantime, the "decline" of Rodgers will remain one of the biggest growing questions hovering over this season.


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Mike Freeman wrote:

The problem is that he's:

1: Not using proper footwork or throwing mechanics. Throwing off the back foot. Not going through progressions. Throwing it behind guys. Dancing around with happy feet. Throwing it over guys heads. It's not stratospheric to expect Aaron to hit guys consistently in the flat, or step into his throws. That is fundamental football that is expected of the 8th grade JV team.

2: Not executing the offense. Holding the ball for 8 seconds, passing up open guys in order to wait for something deep. Always wanting to make a sand lot play. Always trying to get on the highlight real, like Bert.

3: The offense is based on failed Chip Kelly bullshit. Mike has never been smart enough to beat opposing DCs in a chess match by "scheming" guys open. But what they USED to do was use different formations and personnel to get match ups.

Now they just don't substitute, because they're running the no-huddle. So it's the exact same players in the exact formation, all the time. Yeah it's nice to get a couple free plays every game. What's even better is to move the chains consistently, own time of possession and win the field position battle.

So don't sit there and tell me it's MY damn fault, because I expect Aaron to play fundamentally sound football. In fact I do NOT "expect" that. I've been bitching about this for years. It's just that it's gotten much worse now, because everyone was always making excuses for it.

The good news it that it's all correctable. It's not a situation where his physical skills are diminishing due to age (although who knows, really. We'll find that out for sure if/when Aaron pulls his head out and starts getting with the program.) The bad news is, Mike seems neither willing nor able to confront and/or correct Aaron on his shitty execution. This has been going on a long time, and has been really bad for a full year now.

Originally Posted by: nerdmann 

As someone pointed out - how much playing time did rodgers get in preseason?

Originally Posted by: Dulak 

Aaron Rodgers will be back. You have to be low to get back high. I don't know if you all remember... but all this looks like is a certain Aaron Rodgers, preseason 2008 against the 49ers before he had his first game in the Vikings. He is down now, but he will get back up.

Aaron Rodgers wins with a chip on his shoulder.

Originally Posted by: The_Green_Ninja 

Aaron Rodgers will be back. You have to be low to get back high. I don't know if you all remember... but all this looks like is a certain Aaron Rodgers, preseason 2008 against the 49ers before he had his first game in the Vikings. He is down now, but he will get back up.

Aaron Rodgers wins with a chip on his shoulder.

Originally Posted by: The_Green_Ninja 

The number aren’t kind. Rodgers was ranked 17th in DYAR in 2015. He has now gone 15 games without a passer rating over 100 and has averaged under 7-yards per pass attempt in 12 of his last 14 games. The Green Bay offense as a whole has been equally inept; it currently ranks 21st in explosive plays, 29th in yards per game and 30th in yards per play. All of this comes after a season in which they finished 21st in weighted offensive DVOA and 28th in yards per play.

The Packers run an off-script, non-rhythmic offense. They utilize isolation routes and spread formations. They anticipate their players winning 1-on-1 matchups or Rodgers putting the ball where defenders can’t reach it. His trademark back-shoulder connection to Jordy Nelson is just one example.
The issues come when receivers cannot separate from man coverage. Then, each receiver is running an independent route and no one is getting open. In timing offenses, receiver’s routes are all designed to work in conjunction with one another, attempting to get players open through design, rather than winning 1-on-1 matchups.

That brings us to Rodgers.

Does he want to run this all-magic, all-the-time offense? This cannot all be on the coaching staff, nor is it all on the receivers. Is Rodgers willing to make the three-step timing throws, passing up the opportunity to dance around and make a highlight play down the field, in order to move the offense and get it rolling?

When the Packers have added timing elements during their 14-game slump, Rodgers has looked uneasy and inaccurate, unsure in his receiver’s ability to separate and second guessing the structure of the offense.