Barfarn
  • Barfarn
  • Senior Member Topic Starter
8 years ago
I'm done freaking out. All I had to do was listen to Steve.

First, on Holding. Tampa's FG kicker Barth kicked for TB for 4 years ['09-12] and then was out of football in '13 and 14 until Denver needed him for 5 games in '14. He won the starting job in TB last year making 82.1% of his kicks. From 09-12 his average was 84% and he made every kick inside 40 with Schum holding [Barth did that only 2 of the other 4 years]. It appears Schum was as good a holder as whomever did it from '09-'12. And if we assume Barth was not as good of a kicker in 2015, the argument could be made that Schum was a better holder than the '09-'12 guys.

Punting stats are worthless. 2 punters kicking inside adversary's zone: one gets the ball to 2, one to 19, they both have a kick inside the 20. 1Q 8:03 v. Carolina, Masthay overkicks a 56 yarder that's returned 32 yards, a sucky 24 yard net. But wait, some dope held, so the crappy punt and 24 yard net turns into a 66 yard net [that's better than Ray Guy].
Looked at play-by-play of each punt for 1st 8 games of 2015:

Upside: Masthay on way down; Schum on way up

Shanks: Mastay 3; Schum Zero

Leg Strength: advantage Masthay

Road kicking: Masthey noticeable worse; Schum no noticeable difference

Good kicks inside 10: Schum 2; Masthay 0 [Mastay 37 kicks to 26 for Schum]

Good kicks inside 15: Schum 5; Masthey 7 [2 at the 10 yards]

Returns: Masthay [37 kicks] 32, 22, 16, 11, 11, 11, 8, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 5; Schum [26 kicks] 24, 13, 7, 8, 8, 5, 5, 4 Also, Masthay's net was aided by returns of -5, -2, -2. If the kick is good the returner doesn't try to return; a PR that loses yardage has room to make the catch and run, then runs backwards laterally trying for big return. I'd suspect Masthey got low grades for these kicks; though the nets of 55, 49, 40 look all-pro on stats sheet.

Schum
Game 1. 42 yards to 37 [OOB]; 44 yards to 11 [1 yard return]; 56 yards to 30 [0 yard return]; 46 yards to TB 48 [13 yard return].
2. 40 yards to 7 [0]; 37 to 20 [0]; 39 to 24 [FC] Road
3. 43 yards to 36 [0]; 28 yards to 28 [0]; 50 yards to 27 [7]; 35 yards to 11 [FC]; 55 yards to 4 [5]; 52 yards to 16 [0]; 49 to 23 [8]. Road
4. 41 to 25 [0]; 41 to 34 [5].
5. 23 yards to 22 [0 retrun] ; 49 yards [8 yrds return]; 29 yards to 14 [0]
6. 49 to 29 [4]; 40 to 40 [0]. Road
7. 36 to 12 [FC]; 53 to 26 [24]; 38 to 18 👎. Road
8. 36 to 11 [FC]; 49 to Touchback;

Mastay:
1. 54 yard [Touchback]; 43 yards to 48 [11]-Road
2. 49 yards to 13 [22]; 46 yards to 24 [OOB]; 44 to 46 [0]
3. 40 yards to 24 [0]; 40 yards to 30 [0]; 46 yards to 13 [2]; 49 yards to 17 [0]; 40 yards to 11 [16]
4. 48 yards to 15 [6]; 37 yards to 10 [FC]; 41 to 28 [0]; 27 to 33 [OOB]-shank; 49 to 27 [6]; 23 to 28 [OOB]-shank. Road
5. 52 yards [TB]; 47 yards to 37 [-2]; 39 yards [TB]; 52 yards to 24 [6].
6. 28 yards to 12 [OOB]; 38 yards 23 [-2]; 50 yards to 21 [-5]; 46 yards to 22 [FC]
7. 48 to 16 [1]; 45 to 20 [5]; 49 to 22 [FC]; 42 to 20 [FC]; 47 to 21 [6]. Road
8. 56 to 26 [32]; 54 to 30 [8]; 48 to 33 [0]; 26 to 48-shank; 28 yards to 14 [0]; 54 to 18 [11]; 46 to 10 [1]; 45 to 15 [11]. Road
+3
uffda udfa
8 years ago
I want Colquitt.:)
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Ted Thompson sits on his hands per former GM: "because they’ve had 25 fricking years of great quarterbacks. Of course it works. Try it without a special quarterback."


+1
luigis
8 years ago
Great analysis.

It seems to me they are both aveage punters that can hold.

Crosby is not picky, Mashtay wasn't great and wasn't going to improve, salary cap in mind the swap seems to be ok.

I wish we could have someone better but for that you need to get lucky and draft a good punter and that's not easy.
Luis
PackFanWithTwins
8 years ago
Did you go back and watch each of the punts for both or just pull the stat line from the game log?

You bring up Masthay overkicking and there being a long return as a negative and talk about the penalty bringing the return back and everything but doesn't seem like you thought that if not for the holding, there might not have been a return.

Even a stat log can't tell the story.

One example Masthays first its listed at 54 yards [touchback]
Now what is important IMO is was it a boomer that dropped 5 yards deep in the endzone, or was it actually 49 yards in the air, dropped on the 5 yard line and the coverage didn't prevent it from getting into the end zone? Without seeing and knowing the details the stat is useless.

Next game his first punt listed as 49 yards to the 13 [22 yard return]. Why was there a return, was it a bad hang time or did the coverage run past the returner thinking the ball was going to bounce and they were trying to protect from a touchback. Again the stat is useless without knowing detail of what actually went on.

Masthay was never a flip the field position punter, which is why I think he had a shank problem on occasion in those situations where it would have been nice to nail a 60-70 yarder. But he was good at angle kicking and the backspin drop the ball inside the 20.

I don't know enough about the new guy, but I will trust the decision until I can see with my own eyes how he does. My biggest concern is how the new guy will handle cold weather.
The world needs ditch diggers too Danny!!!
+1
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
8 years ago

Did you go back and watch each of the punts for both or just pull the stat line from the game log?

You bring up Masthay overkicking and there being a long return as a negative and talk about the penalty bringing the return back and everything but doesn't seem like you thought that if not for the holding, there might not have been a return.

Even a stat log can't tell the story.

One example Masthays first its listed at 54 yards [touchback]
Now what is important IMO is was it a boomer that dropped 5 yards deep in the endzone, or was it actually 49 yards in the air, dropped on the 5 yard line and the coverage didn't prevent it from getting into the end zone? Without seeing and knowing the details the stat is useless.

Next game his first punt listed as 49 yards to the 13 [22 yard return]. Why was there a return, was it a bad hang time or did the coverage run past the returner thinking the ball was going to bounce and they were trying to protect from a touchback. Again the stat is useless without knowing detail of what actually went on.

Masthay was never a flip the field position punter, which is why I think he had a shank problem on occasion in those situations where it would have been nice to nail a 60-70 yarder. But he was good at angle kicking and the backspin drop the ball inside the 20.

I don't know enough about the new guy, but I will trust the decision until I can see with my own eyes how he does. My biggest concern is how the new guy will handle cold weather.

Originally Posted by: PackFanWithTwins 



The wind is alsoa factor. Kicking with the wind could cause the ball to carry into the end zone. Kicking into a wind will be a low line drive that is going to be returnable.

The return man is a factor too. If the return team has had a great year and taken 3-4 punts back for a td, you don't feel bad by giving them a touchback.
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TheKanataThrilla
8 years ago
Schum better have a good night tonight or there will be some definite ass puckering from the fans going into the season.
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
8 years ago

Schum better have a good night tonight or there will be some definite ass puckering from the fans going into the season.

Originally Posted by: TheKanataThrilla 



And why wouldn't there be? The punter will make or break the season.

Great punting means GB will be in the playoffs. Lousy punting means GB will have a season like Da Bares.
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luigis
8 years ago

Did you go back and watch each of the punts for both or just pull the stat line from the game log?

You bring up Masthay overkicking and there being a long return as a negative and talk about the penalty bringing the return back and everything but doesn't seem like you thought that if not for the holding, there might not have been a return.

Even a stat log can't tell the story.

One example Masthays first its listed at 54 yards [touchback]
Now what is important IMO is was it a boomer that dropped 5 yards deep in the endzone, or was it actually 49 yards in the air, dropped on the 5 yard line and the coverage didn't prevent it from getting into the end zone? Without seeing and knowing the details the stat is useless.

Next game his first punt listed as 49 yards to the 13 [22 yard return]. Why was there a return, was it a bad hang time or did the coverage run past the returner thinking the ball was going to bounce and they were trying to protect from a touchback. Again the stat is useless without knowing detail of what actually went on.

Masthay was never a flip the field position punter, which is why I think he had a shank problem on occasion in those situations where it would have been nice to nail a 60-70 yarder. But he was good at angle kicking and the backspin drop the ball inside the 20.

I don't know enough about the new guy, but I will trust the decision until I can see with my own eyes how he does. My biggest concern is how the new guy will handle cold weather.

Originally Posted by: PackFanWithTwins 



Thought the same, all the stats about punting are worthless.
The real evaluation should be just grading each punt and then averaging. Sometimes a 54 yard punt can be a "D" while a 39 yard punt can be "A+". I'm not sure if any STs have this system in place but I suspect they might.
I haven't done this on Mashtay's punts but I'm inclined to believe his grades wouldn't be very good nor very bad. And from what I have read so far Schum is exactly on the same wavelength.
Luis
Zero2Cool
8 years ago
If we punt on the 45 yardline (which we shouldn't do, we should go for it), then a 39 yard punt with 0 return means we got them at the 6 yard line. That is a woohoo!!
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Barfarn
  • Barfarn
  • Senior Member Topic Starter
8 years ago

Did you go back and watch each of the punts for both or just pull the stat line from the game log?

You bring up Masthay overkicking and there being a long return as a negative and talk about the penalty bringing the return back and everything but doesn't seem like you thought that if not for the holding, there might not have been a return.

Even a stat log can't tell the story.

One example Masthays first its listed at 54 yards [touchback]
Now what is important IMO is was it a boomer that dropped 5 yards deep in the endzone, or was it actually 49 yards in the air, dropped on the 5 yard line and the coverage didn't prevent it from getting into the end zone? Without seeing and knowing the details the stat is useless.

Next game his first punt listed as 49 yards to the 13 [22 yard return]. Why was there a return, was it a bad hang time or did the coverage run past the returner thinking the ball was going to bounce and they were trying to protect from a touchback. Again the stat is useless without knowing detail of what actually went on.

Masthay was never a flip the field position punter, which is why I think he had a shank problem on occasion in those situations where it would have been nice to nail a 60-70 yarder. But he was good at angle kicking and the backspin drop the ball inside the 20.

I don't know enough about the new guy, but I will trust the decision until I can see with my own eyes how he does. My biggest concern is how the new guy will handle cold weather.

Originally Posted by: PackFanWithTwins 



100% valid points PFWT, wpr and luigis. This is the case with all stats; you really have to evaluate each play. I only looked at game log, that's what I meant by "Play-by-play," "game log" is much better description.

And yes, a Masthay "shank" could have occurred when the ball was snapped over his head, he ran back, avoided some tackles and on a dead sprint forward kicked a 28 yarder OOB [I'd give him an A for that shank].

But, if we imagine the perfect punt; it is not a 64 yarder that Janis comes flying down and makes a shoe string tackle for no gain. It is a punt that goes 42-44 yards [maybe longer if you're Ray Guy] with enough hangtime so the the returner makes a FC, or should have FC the ball, because a coverage wall was 4-5 yards away.

On pin back kicks the ideal is to drop it at the 10; maybe the 5 if its a short kick. One of Schum's kick was caught at the 4, 2 of Mastays' were caught at 10. Dont know what the play called for, but if I had to guess Mastay got an A and Schum a B cause it was a bit too long.

Most punts that are returned are bad punts because the hang time was off or coverage was outkicked. Sometimes the coverage is worthless; but this is not normal on a Slocum-less coached team.

I looked at 2 of the 3 plays you mentioned [the 54 yd TB is on VCR tape and dont have VCR set up]:

The 22 yard return [1Q, :51, Seattle game] the coverage was not within 12 yards of Lockett when he fielded the ball. It possible 10 defenders were well blocked; but the likely culprit is inadequate hang time.

The 56 yarder was punted to Ted Ginn; a horrible kick with such a dangerous returner that totally outkicked the coverage. The gunners [Gunter and Janis] both got good releases were sprinting toward Ginn, but still 7-8 yards from him when he caught the ball. Ginn juked Janis and the next line was 7 more yards further downfield [the coverage did well to hold him to 32 yards] and Gunter was blocked in the back in a way that pushed Gunter passed Ginn. It is possible Gunter would have made the tackle, though unlikely. But it dont really matter, Mastay gets a D for the punt regardless if Gunter makes the tackle or not.

Note: to Mastay's credit both returned punts were directional; designed to land on the numbers on one side of the field.

We could grade each play and a few will no doubt vindicate Masthay a few may further indict him. But, this gave me a better appreciation for why they wanted Masthay the hell out seeing the sheer number of Mastay's kicks that were returned and his mediocre ability to pin the other team back. And Masthay really sucked in AZ playoff game.

Kinda off topic: how bad was our offense that we punted almost 50% more than TB?
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