The Philadelphia Story
The Eagles were our preseason pick to win the Super Bowl.
The certainly looked like a statistical contender this year, as we noted last week, even though their 9-6-1 record didnt quite reflect what the numbers might have told us.
More importantly than the numbers and the regular-season record, the Eagles looked like contenders by going on the road to defeat the NFC North champ Vikings with relative ease, 26-14.
There were two lynchpins to the victory: a powerful group of Defensive Hogs who overwhelmed Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson and contained explosive RB Adrian Peterson on 19 of his 20 carries: 40 of Petersons 83 yards came on a single TD run. (Youll see more on Phillys D-Hogs below.)
The other lynchpin, of course, is Donovan McNabb. He was not spectacular Sunday. But given the fact that Minnesotas own collection of Defensive Hogs, and Jared Allen in particular, were up in his grill all day, McNabb performed remarkably well.
Athletically, he still looked like a 24-year-old phenom, darting in and out of the pocket to avoid the rush time and again, while still hitting on 23 of 34 passes for 300 yards, a healthy 8.8 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT and 92.8 passer rating.
The key to McNabbs success and the key to Phillys postseason hopes if they are to fulfill our preseason expectations is the quarterbacks remarkable ability to keep the ball out of the hands of opposing defenses.
As of the end of the 2008 season, McNabb is the least intercepted passer in history: since joining the NFL 10 years ago, hes thrown just 90 interceptions in 4,303 pass attempts a record-low rate of 2.09 percent (Neil ODonnell is No. 2, at 2.11 percent).
To put McNabb's 90 picks since 1999 into perspective, consider that Brett Favre has thrown 101 INTs since 2004 alone.
Over the last three seasons, McNabb has been almost un-pickable, throwing just 24 picks in 1,360 attempts a ridiculously miniscule INT rate of 1.77 percent.
The Giants, Phillys opponent in the divisional round, were even less effective at getting to him this year intercepting just one McNabb pass in 66 attempts (1.52%).
Thats good news for Phillys Super Bowl hopes. After all, the Giants pose the biggest statistical threat to McNabb remaining in the NFC, as they ranked No. 8 in Defensive Passer Rating this year and No. 9 in Defensive Hog Index. Generally speaking, the Giants are pretty good at forcing quarterbacks into sub-par days.
The other two NFC contenders, the Panthers and Cardinals, struggled in both areas. As we all know, turnovers kill teams, especially in the playoffs. But the combination of McNabb and a rock-solid defense gives the Eagles at least one advantage over the rest of the NFC field: the other QB seems more likely to make critical mistakes than McNabb.