This is where there's a big disconnect and where I feel you incorrectly conclude most of us are just content plodding along as relevant or as you put it "wasting AR12".
If you sell out for today that absolutely does impact tomorrow. If you go big on a free agent now, you may well not have the money to keep your young guys coming up for new contracts. If I trade a player away today for a boat load of draft picks I've shifted resources from today into future seasons. What increased your odds to win in one season, hurt your odds in another.
This isn't to say every decision should be made weighting tomorrow over today or vice versa. It should be made on the basis that if this decision impacts my team for 5 years, which option gives me the best chance to win the most championships over that 5 year period. If the decision impacts you for 2 years, you consider 2 years. If it impacts you for 10, you consider 10. If it impacts 1, you consider 1.
If I have a choice of a two scenarios, the first in which I have a 5% chance to win a title this year and a 5% chance to win next year, the second I have a 4% chance this year and a 7% next; you take the second scenario because it maximizes your chances of winning a title, even though you aren't selling out for today.
A real example of this was drafting Rodgers. We had other needs. We could have thrown all our eggs into the last few years with Favre basket. Instead we took the pick we believed would sustain success in the long hall. This is diametrically opposed to your constant strive to win today rhetoric, yet it's a decision you dismiss as obvious. It's not obvious if you religiously stick to this go for broke mantra.
The decisions a GM makes are inherently difficult to quantify. What is this free agents value relative to this prospect or this draft pick? How long will this decision impact my team? We all come up with different answers. You can freely debate the pros and cons of this free agent signing, or that draft pick, or this trade, and you may even convince some people that on that decision we should've favored the option with the more immediate benefit. Everything else--the "strive to dominate", the "you're all just content", the "opportunity only comes once in a lifetime", the "go for broke"--it's all empty rhetoric and straw men.
Originally Posted by: mi_keys