WhiskeySam
15 years ago

Interesting analysis. I would be curious to see you back up your last statement with some statistics. How does Favre's TD-pass percentage stack up against the all-time greats? It might be prudent to examine as well a couple of the current touchdown machines, most notably Peyton Manning.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



There are two comparisons to be made. The first is a player relative to the era he played in. I made that in the previous post showing Favre has been better at throwing TDs than the league average during his career. That establishes him as one of the best of his era. To your point, where does that put him versus the other top QBs in history? I'll present several datasets and make a few more comments at the end.

Let's look first at that same list of QBs we examined for INT%, this time for TD% (TD passes/attempts).

Favre 5.0
Elway 4.1
Montana 5.1
Young 5.6
Aikman 3.5
Staubach 5.2
Marino 5.0
Unitas 5.6
Starr 4.8
Fouts 4.5
Brady 5.4
Manning 5.6
Blanda 5.9

You'll see here, Favre falls solidly among the other top QBs. In fact, statistically Favre and Marino are nearly identical in both TDs and INTs. Elway and Aikman surprisingly do not fare as well. You'll notice Blanda has an eye popping 5.9 (I'll explain how this is impacted by the era he played in) which is part of the reason he's in the Hall of Fame. Again, I think Montana and Young come out looking stellar especially when you factor in their significantly lower INT%s. They were ahead of the curve. Some of that can be attributed to playing in a system that was ahead of the league, but they still had to execute that system. Interestingly, Brady's career was much closer to Fouts/Starr until last season skewed his average higher. Manning right now compares with Young.

Next the top ten TD passers:
Favre 464 5.0
Marino 420 5.0
Tarkenton 342 5.3
Manning 333 5.6
Elway 300 4.1
Moon 291 4.3
Unitas 290 5.6
Testaverde 275 4.1
Montana 273 5.1
Kreig 261 4.9

You can see here Favre and Marino are solidly in the middle for TD% for the top ten TD passers. Six of the 10 on this list are in the Hall of Fame, and Favre and Manning will make it 8. Kreig was surprising to me, and if you look at his years throwing to Largent, he had some fantastic TD%s (even leading the league a few times). You'll notice a lot of the same names from the INT leaders. In fact, the top 20 of both lists are pretty much the same players just in a different order.

The fact is that players who turn the ball over at higher than average rates are not in the league very long. The ones who end up at the top of the All-Time lists are the ones who got there because they played more games. They played more games because they were good QBs. It's counterintuitive to think that being an all-time INT leader is an indicator of greatness, but let's be honest, bad QBs don't start for 15 years or get the chance to make it far up the all-time list. That's why the INT total isn't as useful an indicator as the ratio of INTs to attempts or even INTs to TDs.

Lastly, I'd like to point out some long term trends. The TD% over time has been largely stable. From the 40s through the 60s the league average was a little more than 5%. From the 70s to the present it has been consistently around 4%. This shows again that teams are passing more, but they're also becoming more sophisticated thereby keeping the number stable. The INT% has come down steadily. In the 40s-60s it ranged between 7-10%. In the 60s-80s it was between 5-6%. In the 80s it was about 4%, and over the last 20 years has been in the 3s. This is why it's useful to compare a QB against the average for the era in which he played. It shows, for example, how a George Blanda can be in the Hall of Fame with such a high INT%. Those numbers are indicative of the era he played in. This season for the first time in history, the league average was below 3% at 2.8%.

For comparison, Rodgers this year was at 2.4 for INTs which is close to the league average. However, on TDs he was at 4.9% well above the league average of 3.9%.

Where does this leave us? It shows again that Marino, Manning, Young, Montana, Unitas, and Favre are the top QBs of all-time. Each had his strengths to give support to their case for being the best ever. What sets Favre apart is his longevity, both in how long he has played and how many games he's played. Those factors along with things like the evolution of the passing game and the additional games (16 week season vs 12 or 14 in the past) account for Favre's high totals. He wasn't throwing a record number of TDs each year, but he was throwing them at a higher than average rate consistently for a longer period than anyone else had.
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gotarace
15 years ago

The more relevant number to use is Int% (Ints/Attempts). That number tells you the frequency with which they threw interceptions. Taking your same QBs and adding in a few more:
Favre - 3.3
Elway - 3.1
Montana - 2.6
Young - 2.6
Aikman - 3.0
Staubach - 3.7
Marino - 3.0
Unitas - 4.9
Starr - 4.4
Fouts - 4.3
Brady - 2.4
Manning -2.8
Blanda - 6.9

One thing you'll notice is over time the trend has been for the % to decrease. This is largely accounted for by the increasing sophistication of passing schemes (multiple 3+ receiver sets), and systems which emphasize shorter, higher percentage passes. Montana and Young really shine here because they outpace the trend. You'll also note that the next generation of elite QBs has that number under 3%. That number may be reaching a point where it's not going to get much lower. For those interested, Rodgers was at 2.4 this year. A very good number, but not yet in this discussion because it's based on only one year.

The next set of numbers I'll show are the top ten Intercepted QBs with their INT%:

Favre 310(3.3)
Blanda 277(6.9)
Hadl 268(5.7)
Testaverde 267(4.0)
Tarkenton 266(4.1)
Snead 257(5.9)
Unitas 253(4.9)
Marino 252(3.0)
Tittle 248(5.6)
Hart 247(4.9)

It becomes quite apparent that Favre isn't throwing INTs as often as any of the other men in the top ten save Marino, and his percentage is closer to Marino's than it is to the rest. Favre's total is because he has more attempts than anyone else ever. That's due to him not missing games, playing longer than most QBs do, and being asked to pass more than most QBs are. Frankly, the idea Favre is some kind of turnover machine is a myth, and it's not borne out by the data. (Interesting footnote, 5 of the top 10 are in the Hall of Fame, and Favre will likely be the 6th). Since 2000, Favre has been below his career INT% every year except 2003, 2005, and 2008.

Final comparison:
league average for the last 17 years 3.23 INT%
Favre 3.3%
league avg last 17 yrs TD% 3.97
Favre 5.0

Favre has been average at INT% compared to the rest of the league over his career. Where he has excelled has been in throwing TDs more often than the rest of the league.

"WhiskeySam" wrote:



This my friend is a quality post...easy to understand and well pointed
+1 :thumbright:
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zombieslayer
15 years ago
Whiskey - Great job. Thanks for all those stats.

Which proves my point that you can make a rational case for Favre being the best QB. But then again, the numbers become so related that you can make a case for Montana, Young, Manning, and Unitas as well, with a special nod for Unitas because he played in a more "difficult" era to throw.

Favre though gets additional kudos though because you know that come game time, he'll be starting. I've always made an argument for Steve Young which was really unpopular around here. I'm laughing at the Favre vs Rodgers bickering because I saw this all before in San Francisco when Montana went to the Chiefs. It's deja vu.
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WhiskeySam
15 years ago

Whiskey - Great job. Thanks for all those stats.

Which proves my point that you can make a rational case for Favre being the best QB. But then again, the numbers become so related that you can make a case for Montana, Young, Manning, and Unitas as well, with a special nod for Unitas because he played in a more "difficult" era to throw.

Favre though gets additional kudos though because you know that come game time, he'll be starting. I've always made an argument for Steve Young which was really unpopular around here. I'm laughing at the Favre vs Rodgers bickering because I saw this all before in San Francisco when Montana went to the Chiefs. It's deja vu.

"zombieslayer" wrote:



I completely agree about the Young thing. People forget that he missed time playing in the USFL, sat behind Montana during some of his prime years, and had the end of his career curtailed by injury. If you extrapolate his numbers out to Marino or Favre's games played, he would probably own every major passing record. However, the fact he played less is also a valid argument as to why he wasn't the best. If he couldn't beat out Montana, how can he be considered better than him? It's a fun debate, and each player has his supporters. And I haven't even mentioned Otto Graham yet!
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zombieslayer
15 years ago
Funny thing you bring up Otto Graham. I've heard arguments from old timers say that he was the best QB ever.

One thing I'm wondering - did they change the way they make QB rating? I remember years ago seeing Otto Graham having the highest QB rating in the NFL history, but then don't even see him in the top 20 now. It was a really high rating.

(and no, I'm not smoking crack right now, I do remember this).
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WhiskeySam
15 years ago
The current QB rating has only existed since 1973, so any number Graham had prior was under a different system. The current one involves a formula analyzing completion %, yards per attempt, TD% and INT%. It's a sliding scale where diminishing returns affect outstanding performances faster than poor ones. I have no idea why they used some of the constants they do to multiply by these statistics in determining the number, but the rating was designed for an average QB to be 66.6. There's an argument for adjusting the rating system for this reason. The average rating now is in the mid 80s which makes average QBs now look better than some of the best QBs of the past. Maybe they should be weighting things differently based on league-wide reductions in INT% and TD% and increases in ypa and com%.
Nemo me impune lacessit
Pack93z
15 years ago

The current QB rating has only existed since 1973, so any number Graham had prior was under a different system. The current one involves a formula analyzing completion %, yards per attempt, TD% and INT%. It's a sliding scale where diminishing returns affect outstanding performances faster than poor ones. I have no idea why they used some of the values they do in determining the number, but the rating was designed for an average QB to be 66.6. There's an argument for adjusting the rating system for this reason. The average rating now is in the mid 80s which makes average QBs now look better than some of the best QBs of the past.

"WhiskeySam" wrote:



Each and every year they tip the scales towards the offense and the passing game.. the higher these numbers will slide.. there is a valid argument to adjust the numbers for today's game.

It is a miracle that we have good defenses in today's game.. pansy boys on the offense get all the rules bent towards them, freaking TV generation. 😉
"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"
zombieslayer
15 years ago

The current QB rating has only existed since 1973, so any number Graham had prior was under a different system. The current one involves a formula analyzing completion %, yards per attempt, TD% and INT%. It's a sliding scale where diminishing returns affect outstanding performances faster than poor ones. I have no idea why they used some of the constants they do to multiply by these statistics in determining the number, but the rating was designed for an average QB to be 66.6. There's an argument for adjusting the rating system for this reason. The average rating now is in the mid 80s which makes average QBs now look better than some of the best QBs of the past. Maybe they should be weighting things differently based on league-wide reductions in INT% and TD% and increases in ypa and com%.

"WhiskeySam" wrote:



Ah ha. That's gotta be it then.
I was reading a sports book and it was probably pre-73. It was at a used book store. I clearly remember Otto Graham with the highest rating and Johnny Unitas (I think, wasn't he mostly pre-73?) and Bart Starr were both up there too.

Now back to all-time greats - I completely forgot Tom Brady. Yes, I hate the guy with a passion, but as a Quarterback, I'd take him any day of the week over Peyton Manning, who he's often compared to because they're contemporaries.

Manning has had a solid OL and a Hall of Fame WR his entire career while Brady has had much less to work with. These are other things to take into consideration. Then suddenly Brady finds himself with one HoF WR and one potential HoF WR and a solid OL and puts up record numbers.

So yet another variable to take into consideration is who can win games with less? Tom Brady would be very high up on that list. So would Favre. So would Denver's John Elway, but it took a dominating RB to take Elway over the top though.

That's a strike against Dan Marino, who as good as he was, had Duper and Clayton for a big part of his career. If I'm not mistaken, I think he had them both for 8 or 9 years (which in the NFL is a huge chunk of time).
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Nonstopdrivel
15 years ago
I must say, WhiskeySam, that I am impressed with your in-depth analysis and I can do nothing to impeach your arguments or conclusions. I would argue, however, that when and how a quarterback throws interceptions has more of an effect than the raw number of interceptions alone. For example, both Marino and Favre, who enjoyed extraordinary regular season success, have a history of monumental breakdowns in the playoffs, and consequently, neither has attained any remarkable level of postseason success (Marino had no Superbowl victories and Favre had one). I would be curious to see your response to this article , entitled "The Lord of Postseason Stats," which addresses the issue of interceptions and their impact on playoff success.
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TengoJuego
15 years ago

Interesting analysis. I would be curious to see you back up your last statement with some statistics. How does Favre's TD-pass percentage stack up against the all-time greats? It might be prudent to examine as well a couple of the current touchdown machines, most notably Peyton Manning.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



I agree with this. But I still haven't seen Aaron bring us back. But yes I do agree, he protects the ball much better than Brett.
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