Per FootBallOutsiders and without factoring that Rodgers is out
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds The site simulates every remaining game thousands of times deciding the result based on the DVOA rankings of each team.
I think the wildcard race has gotten murky because we have Frisco, Carolina, Lions/Bears and the Eagles in the picture and we have lost the tiebreaker against two of those teams.
Winning the division seems to be the only hope and the Lions' schedule looks very easy.