DakotaT
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12 years ago
The only offense that scares me the rest of the way is New Orleans, and I doubt those boys can duplicate what they did to the Giants in Lambeau in late January. The NE tight ends would give Hawk and Bishop fits, but I doubt we see them.

I don't know what everybody gets so jacked up about over giving up yards. Odds on the Packers in Vegas are horrific and if you added a mudstomp defense to the mix, there would be no money to be made.

I'm actually enthused by watching the young guys cut their teeth. Smith and Francois had great games last week. I just wish we had something better than thr red headed step child Bush at dime back. We definitely need to go corner in round 1 next year, unless of course there's a rush on QB's again and a quality Dlineman falls to us.
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Zero2Cool
12 years ago
I'm with DakotaT on the only offense that worries me is the Saints. Maybe the Patriots too.
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Nonstopdrivel
12 years ago
It's not so much yardage as time of possession that concerns me. Having a tired defense in the 4th quarter makes me uneasy.
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longtimefan
12 years ago

It's not so much yardage as time of possession that concerns me. Having a tired defense in the 4th quarter makes me uneasy.

Originally Posted by: Nonstopdrivel 




Edit----
Packers are 6th in TOP with 28:31 Texans are #1 with 26:39

I read this today, has some good points people dont look at

http://www.packerforum.com/threads/sports-illustrated-article-on-the-porus-defense.32600/ 

Teams with high-scoring offenses typically don't rank in the upper echelon in total defense because they surrender a lot of yards late in games, while the other team is playing catch-up—the Packers give up roughly 20% more yards in the fourth quarter than they do in any other.

The Saints won the Super Bowl two years ago with the league's highest-scoring offense and its 25th-ranked defense. The Colts won the title in '06 after tying for second in scoring and ranking 21st in total D. And the Patriots claimed their first Vince Lombardi Trophy while ranking sixth in scoring and 24th in total defense.

A statistic more connected with postseason success—even more than points allowed—is scoring differential (points scored minus points given up). Fifteen of the past 21 Super Bowl champions have finished first or second in that category. The Pack was second in 2010 and is No. 1 this year with an average differential of 14.3 points a game.

zombieslayer
12 years ago

Edit----
Packers are 6th in TOP with 28:31 Texans are #1 with 26:39

I read this today, has some good points people dont look at

http://www.packerforum.com/threads/sports-illustrated-article-on-the-porus-defense.32600/ 

Originally Posted by: longtimefan 



I'll be damned.

I wonder where I heard that points differential before.

No worries RP. If you like stats, you'll love NSD's thread on what really matters - the difference in offensive passer rating vs defensive passer rating.

Right now, we are #1 in Points Differential and I wouldn't be surprised if we're also #1 in the difference between offensive passer rating and defensive passer rating. If we're #1 in both categories, the NFL shouldn't bother finishing the season. They should just hand us the Lombardi Trophy.

Originally Posted by: zombieslayer 



Dakota - Why won't we face the Pats? I'm saying right now that it will more than 50% chance be either the Pats or the Steelers that we face in the SB.

All - So the big question is, which teams can keep up with us offensively? We're 50+ pts on the Pats. The team that is close to us is the Saints. But then again, I've said this before - our toughest game will be the NFC CG, NOT the SB.
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DakotaT
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12 years ago



Dakota - Why won't we face the Pats? I'm saying right now that it will more than 50% chance be either the Pats or the Steelers that we face in the SB.

Originally Posted by: zombieslayer 




I think we'll be playing the Ravens. Somehow, someway -"they'll" get Ray to another SB. I think the Steelers will be too beat up, and the Pats are way too light in the loafers. I keep saying they won't be relevant again until the win a playoff game - just like Dallas. It's been since the 18-0 super bowl beat down since the Pats won a playoff game, and that was 2007.
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vikesrule
12 years ago

....the NFL shouldn't bother finishing the season. They should just hand us the Lombardi Trophy.

Originally Posted by: zombieslayer 



Hmmmmm..........As Ron Wolf would say, all they were was a “fart in the wind”:-k


Cheeseheads taking things for granted 
It was almost 15 years ago, the Packers were on top of the world, and Packer Nation was basking in the glory, confident their time at the top had only just begun.
With the three-time reigning MVP at quarterback, only just-turned 27, still early in his prime, this team had “dynasty” written all over it.......
....There was no dynasty. As Ron Wolf would say, all they were was a “fart in the wind”. A one-year wonder, certainly no dynasty.
But that whole 1997 season, it seemed like it was a surefire dynasty. Even though there were clear, tell-tale signs that the defense was slipping


Now, back to the today.

The Packers again are at the top of the world. Packer nation is basking in the glory. Once again, they are confident that this is only the beginning, and a dynasty is on the way. The leader, the QB, is only 27....
....The season to repeat has everyone locally and many nationally assuming that the Packers are going to make it back to the Super Bowl and repeat.
Although there are obvious holes, and a decline on defense, Rodgers and company will simply outscore everyone,...
...As with the 1997 team, there are some ominous warning sides on this team on the defensive side of the ball that are being covered up by the offense.....
....Remember, the 2010 Packers barely beat the Steelers despite getting three turnovers from Pittsburgh. Without those, it would have been a loss. This dependence on turnovers is a very dangerous and risky way to play. Sometimes, those turnovers won’t come and a defense will have to stiffen up, stop bending.

zombieslayer
12 years ago

Hmmmmm..........As Ron Wolf would say, all they were was a “fart in the wind”:-k


Originally Posted by: vikesrule 



As I've said before, if the Packers go on to win the Super Bowl, we'll be the 2nd team in 3 years to win the Super Bowl with a high powered O and a mediocre D that relies on takeaways instead of stops.

🇲🇲 > Mike Holmgren. We should have beaten the Broncos but Holmgren lost his cool at half-time and instead of making adjustments, just yelled at the team. Needless to say, kind of killed the team's morale.

I have never forgiven Holmgren for that loss.

I had a great feeling about '96. I didn't have that feeling about '97. I had it last year. I have it this year.
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evad04
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12 years ago

It's not so much yardage as time of possession that concerns me. Having a tired defense in the 4th quarter makes me uneasy.

Originally Posted by: Nonstopdrivel 


I'd agree with the sentiment that a tired 4th quarter defense is unsettling, but the fact is Green Bay hasn't been in those situations too often.

Brace yourself for a remarkable statistic (pulled from Seifert's NFC North blog --apologies if someone else mentioned it already):
Throughout the entirety of their 17 game streak dating back to week 16 last season, Green Bay has NEVER trailed in the 4th quarter. Not once.

I know it's bad if it's a one score game and the other team has the time of possession in their favor. That said, Green Bay has been so completely dominant in the third quarters this season that at the very least there isn't a tired 4th quarter defense playing with a deficit.

The third quarter dominance and above statistic merit their own thread, IMO. I couldn't believe that stat when I heard it. Obviously it speaks to the talented players Green Bay has, but also of the coaching staff.
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Nonstopdrivel
12 years ago

apologies if someone else mentioned it already

Originally Posted by: evad04 



With this victory, the Packers

[list]

  • Win an impressive 3 games in 10 days
  • Equal their best regular-season record of the Rodgers era (11)
  • Set a team record for single-season winning streak (11)
  • Extend the team record for consecutive wins, including postseason (17)
  • Extend the league record for consecutive wins without trailing in the 4th quarter (17)
  • Cement their hold on the No. 1 seed for at least three more weeks, regardless of what happens with the rest of the league
  • Clinch a playoff berth with a Falcons loss and a Giants loss[/list]
  • "Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



    😝

    Actually, I've been tracking that statistic for quite a few weeks now.

    But point taken. I understand that one of the reasons why the defense hasn't tightened things up is they haven't had to. They have never played from behind the 4th quarter since the Patriots game last year. I just wish they would give us some visual evidence that they can tighten it up, so that worrywarts like me can feel confident that if they do get into a close situation or have to play from behind -- say, in a closely contested game like the Super Bowl -- that they will be able to seal the deal. This winning streak, as amazing as it has been, will feel a little hollow if it gets snapped in the NFC Championship Game or the Super Bowl. I would feel so much more confident about their prospects in the postseason if they could give us a game or two in which they can consistently get off the field. The pages of history are replete with examples of teams who steamrolled offensively through the regular season, outscoring every team in sight despite their weak defenses, only to get ushered out of the playoffs because their defenses couldn't hold up when it really counted. I know zombieslayer likes to point out that if the Packers win it all this year, they will be the second team in three years to get it done with a dominating offense and weak defense, but I don't believe for a moment that is going to become the norm in the NFL. There are just too many teams who have tried that formula and failed. Occasional statistical outliers don't negate long-term trends.
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    vikesrule
    12 years ago

    ...we'll be the 2nd team in 3 years to win the Super Bowl with a high powered O and a mediocre D that relies on takeaways instead of stops.

    Originally Posted by: zombieslayer 



    And I reiterate....

    "This dependence on turnovers is a very dangerous and risky way to play. Sometimes, those turnovers won’t come and a defense will have to stiffen up, stop bending".

    me quoting a quote wrote:



    The very serious decline in the Packers pass defense, the stagnant (and still poor rush defense) and the overwhelming increase in turnover reliance will inevitably bite them in the ass.
    Perhaps at the most inopportune of moments.[-o<.......:-"

    2010 Packers Defense
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    2011 Packers Defense
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    Dulak
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    12 years ago

    If you are worried about the D you might not want to check this out.

    This is kind of cool... Until you enter in Defensive rankings as the formula in the playoff predictor.

    http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario 

    Originally Posted by: RaiderPride 



    I blame bernett's broken hand ... I mean wtf is he playing a coverage guy with broken hand? ... lets see how many INTs did he get with a broken hand? ... I know he appears pretty good but I just didnt see it the past X games. Heck I was more impressed by peprah's play and for the past few years peprah has only appeared average to below average IMO.

    zombieslayer
    12 years ago

    And I reiterate....


    The very serious decline in the Packers pass defense, the stagnant (and still poor rush defense) and the overwhelming increase in turnover reliance will inevitably bite them in the ass.
    Perhaps at the most inopportune of moments.[-o<.......:-"

    2010 Packers Defense
    UserPostedImage 

    2011 Packers Defense
    UserPostedImage 



    Originally Posted by: vikesrule 



    Yes, and I'll re-iterate what I said. We will be the 2nd team in 3 years that uses that defensive formula. The '09 Saints were 26th against the pass and 21st against the rush and in PA (what really matters), they were #20. But at all the right times, they forced turnovers led by your friend and mine, Darren Sharper. We all know Sharper isn't the greatest tackler (do we need to find that picture of Sharper as a Viking look like he's gonna crap in his pants while chasing my man DD as DD races into the end zone?)

    Let's not forget Roman Harper's pick 6 in the SB against P Manning.

    Play Devil's Advocate all you want. I'm not worried one bit. :-"

    Now on to what really matters - take a guess which team is #1 in the NFL in Points Differential? We're also #2 in Takeaway/Giveaway ratio.

    Sometimes you gotta wonder what is a more futile exercise - rooting for the Vikings or rooting against the Packers.
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    2010 will be seen as the beginning of the new Packers dynasty. 🇹🇹 🇲🇲 🇦🇷
    Dexter_Sinister
    12 years ago
    I did something quite interesting.

    I took the worst 5 defensive performances by passing yards given up each week and totaled them.

    Together they are 31-29. Essentially the same result you get from picking 5 random teams each week.

    Then I took the 5 worst defensive performance by passer rating allowed for each week.

    Added together they are 3-57. Basically, the bottom 5 won about 5% of the time.

    The top 5 by passing yards won... you guessed it 50% of the time. Any guesses what the middle 5 average?

    And the top 5 in D passer rating wins 95% of the time.

    So, if Vikesrule wants to make pointed remarks by quoting stats that are no better than random chance, his points are going to be rather impotent.

    In case you didn't know, the Packers have a top 10 D passer rating.

    If you add offensive passer rating and calculate the differential, the correlation gets even stronger.

    The Packers lead in that by a fairly wide margin.
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