That's not true. In fact, it's never been true. The divorce rate last approached 50% back in the 1980s and has been declining ever since. It is down to about 35% for first-time marriages now. Marriages between people over the age of 25 have about a 25% divorce rate. Marriages in which the couple completes premarital counseling before getting married have less than a 10% divorce rate. (It helps to know something about your mate before tying the knot. Huh, what a novel concept.)
The 50% figure was always based on lazy statistical analysis anyway. It derived from the fact in any given year, there tended to be about a 2:1 ratio of weddings to divorces in this country. It doesn't take a lot of thought to realize why, if in a particular year there are 2 million weddings and 1 million divorces, that might not equate to an actual 50% divorce rate (if for no other reason than most marriages last longer than a year). Subsequent marriages also have significantly higher divorce rates than first marriages, another factor that inflated the ostensible divorce rate.
Couples are most likely to get divorced within the first five years. There is another spike in divorce around year 19-20 (about the time the kids leave home), but statistically speaking, if you make it through the first five years, you are probably in it for the long haul, and if you make it through the first 20, you're probably going to stick together for life.
Originally Posted by: Nonstopdrivel