They've extended the CBA deadline. Do you think there will be a lockout or not. I still think there will be a lockout. I can't see either side giving up that much, compared to what each wanted, to settle this quickly. I hope I'm wrong.

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I think they are close, I highly doubt the owners would of accepted a extension if they we're very far from closing in a deal.

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I've never though there was going to be a lockout. I think both sides know they have too valuable a product. They can't ruin what they've had going the last two or so decades when the NFL has largely become the most popular sports league in America.

I still expect a lockout, though I can see it being a relatively short one (say 2-4 weeks).

The first real pressure on the owners would probably be a couple weeks before the draft. Missing a month of free agency is no real loss to anyone. The main free agent signings hit either in the first week or after the draft. Players can use a couple extra weeks of resting and recovering from the season, management can interchange a couple weeks of draft and free agency attention if they want.

At the same time, I can see the hardliners among their owners continuing to push. To see how much of the decertification threat is bluff.

Remember, starting litigation is not the same as pursuing it to completion. Most litigation is settled well before trial, and the people playing this high stakes game all know this.

In my opinion, the first really painful deadlines are still a ways off. And by no means does starting a lockout lock anyone in to the whole course of litigation or a long lockout.

Agreement will happen only when non-agreement is more painful. In my opinion, that point is still at least a solid month away.

Fans like us are antsy and worried. But the $500/hour lawyers and executives....the pressure has barely started yet.

No one's feeling real pain yet. Not owners. And, apart from the occasional dimwit who doesn't understand COBRA protection for health care, not players. And until owners and/or players start feeling pain, they're not going to put pressure that causes pain to the $500/hour lawyers, market consultants, representatives. Continuing gamesmanship and posturing is a low cost strategy.

Oh, an agreement might be imminent. No one knows what exactly is being said and decided in the meetings. What the exact information that the owners might be sharing is. What the players and their accounting experts see in that information. Etc.

Maybe inside the room, the real atmosphere is cooperative. I have no idea.

But to the extent that cooperation is dependent on feeling pain, or on avoiding real pain, there's lots of time left. A week delay of anything at this point means far less than people think.

I'll be happy as a clam if this gets settled in the next week.

But I ain't holding my breath.

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