I understand it's awfully early to do predictions for next season but my friend sent me an email with his thoughts so I ended up responding with mine. I figured I might as well post them here. Obviously I'd like to wait until after free agency and the draft so I can evaluate teams better. Because, for example, there are a lot of teams that could change drastically based on acquiring a decent quarterback. I'm not predicting wins here but I'll predict divisions top-to-bottom. That being said, here are my NFC picks as of today, February 15th.
NFC NORTH
1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Lions
4. Bears
The Packers are easily the best in the division right now. I still think we had a bit of luck on our side to win this Super Bowl with all the injuries but with numerous players coming back we should have a downright scary squad. The Bears are coming off a season where they lucked their way to wins. They had a stretch in the regular season where they faced three straight third string quarterbacks. Chicago's defense is not getting any younger and their offensive line is downright terrible. In addition they have a seemingly unmotivated QB in Jay Cutler and only one decent play maker on offense in Matt Forte leaving their ability to score points pretty low. On top of that they fail to use the talented Greg Olsen. I see them as the worst in the division. The Lions I think could take a huge step this year if Stafford is able to stay healthy. I think they definitely have the talent to make the playoffs but I think they'll drop a few close games because of their QB's inexperience. They'll finish somewhere around 6-9 wins. Minnesota is a tough pick here. I think they really got a chance if they can acquire a decent QB. They have young offensive playmakers in Adrian Peterson (top 3 RB) and big targets in Visanthe Shiancoe, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian. This offense could be explosive if they could just get a decent QB. The Williams wall is getting old on defense but they still have Jared Allen and Antoine Winfield as playmakers. Add all that to the new, tough mentality that first-year head coach Leslie Frazier is going to bring and you have a recipe for a playoff run. The Vikings could finish last in the division or second depending on the quarterback play.
NFC EAST
1. Cowboys
2. Eagles
3. Giants
4. Redskins
Honestly this is the hardest division to pick. I could see all teams making the playoffs but I have the least reason to believe in the Redksins. I think Shanahan is a damn good coach but him pairing with the money-waving spree-spending Dan Snyder is a recipe for disaster. It just doesn't seem that the front office is on the same page in terms of personnel decisions (see McNabb and Haynesworth). Despite that they still are a respectable team and not an easy win because they like to grind out games. The Eagles just franchised Vick today but that doesn't mean they're going to keep him. I love Andy Reid and the Eagles have a great core of young players but their defense was too much of a sieve at the end of the season for me to believe they can make the playoffs again. If they go with Vick mark my words he'll get hurt and miss a few games they they will lose. If they go with Kolb they'll have some growing pains to go through (albeit very few--for some reason I'm a Kolb believer). Yet I still think they're better than the Giants. I've never been a fan of Eli Manning. I think he freezes up in clutch moments and tries to shoulder too much of the load. If the Giants defense isn't playing well Manning tries too hard and throws costly interceptions. They do have a good young WR group but that's about it for offense. Brandon Jacobs is also miffed about his playing time and might not be back with the team. Either way I see the slide that kept the Giants out of the playoffs this season repeating as they lose the battle with the Eagles near the end of the season for a wild-card spot. On to the Cowboys. I think the Cowboys had a very fluky season. After a few close games that ended up in losses the team lost motivation. Everything spiraled out of control much like the Vikings. It was just downhill the whole way and Wade Phillips was never able to get his team playing hard. Enter Jason Garret. The guy is an offensive genius. The Cowboys are going to be scoring points like wildfire next season. I'm still not convinced their defense will be that great but I think they can ride Romo, Witten and Austin for massive points and victories.
NFC SOUTH
1. Saints
2. Falcons
3. Buccaneers
4. Panthers
I think the Saints will climb back after having a down year. There's a bit of distraction going on with Payton right now but I believe last season's failures were partly attributed to the emotional high the Saints had after winning the Super Bowl. They just didn't have the drive anymore, you could see it in the Seahawks playoff game. They just gave up. I think this year they'll have a bigger fire and want to win another Lombardi. They have all the talent to do so and Drew Brees is going to play like he has been for at least a few more seasons. The only issue I see is if they get in a hole early they could finish without a playoff spot. The Falcons are in for a down year. Not necessary a losing year but last season for them was contingent on them holding on to the ball and making few mistakes. We all saw in the two Packers games how much of a game managing QB Matt Ryan is. I've never seen him show that next step that could take his team farther in the playoffs. In addition they use Mike Turner as a workhorse. He's going to break down eventually leaving the Falcons in a tough spot. I wouldn't be surprised if they missed the playoffs with a winning record this season. The Buccaneers are another team I think will fall down to earth. Josh Freeman will keep improving but this is already a young team that played better than they were all season. I just don't see a repeat unless they add more talented players to the roster. 7-9 wins sounds about right. I don't think I need to explain the Panthers.
NFC WEST
1. Rams
2. Cardinals
3. Seahawks
4. 49ers
I really could care less about this division. I like coach Spagnuolo and Sam Bradford in St. Louis. The other three teams are kind of a draw and could be swapped in any position from 2nd to 4th. I like Harbaugh as a coaching hire but I don't think he can get much more out of a team than Mike Singletary could. They're going to need to overhaul their roster a bit. They also changed GM's so look for them to try and grab a franchise QB for the new regime. I like the Cardinals a lot if they can go and grab a good QB. Someone that can throw it to Fitzgerald. Despite playing with three crappy QB's last season Fitz still posted 1,100+ yards and 6 TD's. Get him a QB with a decent arm and this team can ride the two of them like crazy. The Seahawks I don't like at all. Their line sucks, Marshawn Lynch is overrated, Hasselbeck is old and Whitehurst can't play, their defense is no good. Honestly I have no idea how they made it as far as they did.
PLAYOFFS
1. Packers
2. Cowboys
3. Saints
4. Rams
5. Eagles
6. Vikings
I'd like to do the AFC another day but I don't know if I'll get to it. Obviously I don't follow most teams like I do the Packers so there could be some glaring issues with my analysis but I'm still pretty confident in the order I have the teams.