macbob
  • macbob
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
14 years ago
And for my fellow geeks out there who get off on statistical analysis, an article about GB's stats analyst...I think I've got a man-crush on Eayrs...


ARLINGTON, Texas -- If the Green Bay Packers face a fourth-and-1 in Sunday's Super Bowl against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the decision to go for it or punt will be solely up to coach Mike McCarthy.

Mike Eayrs will make sure his guess is an educated one.

As the Packers' statistical guru, Eayrs already will have studied the probability of success or failure in the most obscure game situations. He obviously can't tell McCarthy what will work and what won't, but he can tell the coach what recent league history says is the wisest choice.

"Obviously, the information never replaces intelligence and intuition," Eayrs said. "But in some cases, it gives you a logical base to make the decision. 'In the past, teams doing x have been right more often than wrong.'"

Eayrs went mostly unnoticed during the Packers' Super Bowl media day session Tuesday, mostly staying out of the way as reporters buzzed from player to player. As usual, he was quietly in the background.

His formal title is the Packers' director of research and development, and he has a unique role in helping the team prepare for the Super Bowl. For obvious reasons, he wasn't willing to share his insights on the upcoming game, but he did describe his routine during a typical game week.

Eayrs compiles a statistical team profile on each upcoming opponent, listing specific things they do well and identifying areas where the Packers might have an advantage. Then he turns a few of those nuggets into bullet points for coaches to present to players.

He'll also give a five-minute talk to the team during a typical week, called "game education."

Eayrs' statistical studies go well beyond upcoming opponents, delving into league-wide trends and studying the officials.

"The referees have tendencies, just like the teams have," Eayrs said. "And so what we try to do is talk to the players about what a higher tendency of call they're going to (make)."

And no piece of information is too obscure.

Rookie defensive end Frank Zombo says he remembers standing next to Eayrs one day during training camp and watching him chart the time it took for the Packers to run each play - including the time it took between plays.

"I thought, 'Why would we ever need something like that?'" Zombo said.

Zombo was impressed; as an undrafted free agent out of Central Michigan, it was nothing he'd ever seen.

"We didn't have anything like that," he said.

Eayrs says most NFL teams have a staff member in charge of statistical analysis, although those duties sometimes fall to a quality control assistant.

The 60-year-old Eayrs is in his 10th season with the Packers, having worked for the rival Minnesota Vikings for 16 seasons before that. But he discovered his love for statistical analysis, and how it applies to football, earlier in his career as a coach at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse.

On a key third-down play, an opposing defender stepped right into the space where his team wanted to throw the ball. Eayrs wondered how the opponent knew. So after the game, he asked a friend on the opposing coaching staff about the play.

"He said, 'Well, that's a tendency you guys had. We were playing and gambling that you would run this play at this time,'" Eayrs said. "I started to get really interested in game analysis, and looking at where were we predictable and how could we change things up. Everything spiraled from there."

Now he has far more information to process.


Eayrs said most of the work he does is with the NFL's complex statistics and information system, which he said gathers 75 items of information about every play of every game.

Eayrs said that allows him to study even the most obscure game situations and help guide coaches on their decisions.

"Fourth and one, you go for it and you make it, what's your probability that you're going to go on and score on the possession?" Eayrs said. "Versus fourth and one, you punt, what's the probability you're going to get the ball back in three plays? What's the probability your opponent's going to score? So we have a whole bunch of tables set up that essentially tell us, at least historically, what has happened in a variety of situations."

The same goes for officials.

"The officials are going to be another independent variable in the game," Eayrs said. "If it's a let-'em-play crew, I think it's important for the team to know that."

Eayrs finds that some crews tend to call certain penalties more often at different times in the game.

"There are a couple crews that almost every game they work, there's some type of a player conduct foul - personal foul, unnecessary roughness - and it'll almost always occur in the first 10 minutes of the game," Eayrs said. "It's like they're kind of trying to send a message to players that this is, we want it tight within the rules, and there are others that will let them play, and then all of a sudden, they'll kind of take control of the game in the fourth quarter. Those are the kind of things we're trying to know."

And something Eayrs believes fans are growing more curious about.

With the recent popularity of books such as "Freakonomics" - and a new sports-themed equivalent, "Scorecasting" - Eayrs said he thinks average fans are more in tune with the idea of studying big-picture statistical trends.

"I think so," Eayrs said. "Just in terms of conversation, I think fans, honestly, are much more intelligent. And then the other thing is, fans have access to so much more information than they used to."

MiamiHerald.com wrote:

Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago
Huzzah for the University of Wisconsin - La Crosse!
UserPostedImage
yooperfan
14 years ago
I think that's one helluvan article.
This is great to hear that this guy is on the job making a difference.
I never had heard that this was taking place.
Dulak
14 years ago
thats Awesome!

I hope this guy and MM come up with some twists to their usual plays to catch the steelers coaches off guard :)
just like the onside vs the patriots - NEVER would of imagined that.
Fan Shout
beast (6h) : Wow, 95% drop in investment revenue? Would be interesting to hear the details of why...
dfosterf (25-Jul) : It's my one day deal complaint dept. on shareholder meeting day
dfosterf (25-Jul) : Probably a homer access credential intimidation kinda thing
dfosterf (25-Jul) : Meathead "journalists" skip this, concentrating on operational revenue when convenient. They switch when net revenue is more favorable.
dfosterf (25-Jul) : Resulting in an actual drop of net revenue of 12.5%. She is from Minnesota. Just sayin'
dfosterf (25-Jul) : Any plans to hold Maureen Smith (CFO) accountable for a 95% drop in investment revenue?
Mucky Tundra (25-Jul) : In your face, HBO!
Mucky Tundra (25-Jul) : @ByRyanWood Mark Murphy: “A great source of pride of mine is that we were never on Hard Knocks.”
Mucky Tundra (25-Jul) : *years
Mucky Tundra (25-Jul) : @mattschneidman Mark Murphy says he anticipates “many Packers games” being played in Germany, Ireland and/or the U.K. over the next 5-10 yea
dfosterf (25-Jul) : *cafeteria* I have hit my head also, so I sympathize
dfosterf (25-Jul) : Possibly hit his head leaning into the glass protecting the food in the cafateria
dfosterf (25-Jul) : Maybe a low flying drone
dfosterf (25-Jul) : Did Savion Williams run into a goalpost or something?
Mucky Tundra (25-Jul) : also, no bueno when a guy starts getting concussions right off the bat in his career
Zero2Cool (25-Jul) : Concussion is worse. Banks probably vet off day via back booboo claim
Mucky Tundra (25-Jul) : @AndyHermanNFL Jordy Nelson out at camp today. No word if he’s in play for one of the two open roster spots ; )
dfosterf (25-Jul) : Is that better or worse than Banks bad back?
Zero2Cool (25-Jul) : Savion concussion ... not good.
packerfanoutwest (24-Jul) : Aaron Rodgers’s first pass of first team period was picked off
Mucky Tundra (24-Jul) : tbh I didn't hear of his passing
Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Cosby Show. Malcom Jamal Warner I think is real name
Mucky Tundra (24-Jul) : I was thinking of Ozzy and Hulk
Mucky Tundra (24-Jul) : Who's Theo?
Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : How is Theo alliteration?
Mucky Tundra (24-Jul) : Bad week for people whose names are alliterations
Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Hulk Hogan gone too.
Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Oh, it's toe injury
Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Hope it's not serious. that would stink
dfosterf (24-Jul) : Sounds like an ankle not a knee for Fields
dfosterf (24-Jul) : Ya Flaccp on Browns
Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Maybe Tyrod Taylor instead
Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : He's on Browns, right?
dfosterf (24-Jul) : They would probably go with Flacco is my guess if Fields out
dfosterf (24-Jul) : Fleece 'em again!
Zero2Cool (24-Jul) : Malik Willis might be someone Jets come after
packerfanoutwest (24-Jul) : Packers introduce 1923-inspired classic uniform, leather-look helmet
Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : Both LB Quay Walker and Rookie DB Micah Robinson have passed their physicals
Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : Happy to see site feels more snappy snappy
Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : No sir. I did not.
dfosterf (23-Jul) : You didn't get free childcare when you were at work?
wpr (23-Jul) : These guys make hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. Pay for their own childcare.
dfosterf (23-Jul) : 2nd issue. Number 1 issue was no gameday childcare. 1 of 3 teams not providing it
Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : Suppose if locker room is main issue, we sitting pretty
wpr (23-Jul) : I thought so Mucky. In those useless player polls GB always rates high overall. Locker is a part of it.
Mucky Tundra (23-Jul) : Wasn't the locker room just updated like 6 or 7 years ago?
Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : I have forum updated on different site. We'll see how this one goes before going to that
Zero2Cool (23-Jul) : Elgton Jenkins has a back injury, is expect to end contract dispute
wpr (23-Jul) : It's funny the PA complained about the locker room. It wasn't that long ago it was top shelf. Things change in a hurry.
wpr (23-Jul) : The site is much more better.
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2025 Packers Schedule
Sunday, Sep 7 @ 3:25 PM
LIONS
Thursday, Sep 11 @ 7:15 PM
COMMANDERS
Sunday, Sep 21 @ 12:00 PM
Browns
Sunday, Sep 28 @ 7:20 PM
Cowboys
Sunday, Oct 12 @ 3:25 PM
BENGALS
Sunday, Oct 19 @ 3:25 PM
Cardinals
Sunday, Oct 26 @ 7:20 PM
Steelers
Sunday, Nov 2 @ 12:00 PM
PANTHERS
Monday, Nov 10 @ 7:15 PM
EAGLES
Sunday, Nov 16 @ 12:00 PM
Giants
Sunday, Nov 23 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Thursday, Nov 27 @ 12:00 PM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 7 @ 12:00 PM
BEARS
Sunday, Dec 14 @ 3:25 PM
Broncos
Friday, Dec 19 @ 11:00 PM
Bears
Friday, Dec 26 @ 11:00 PM
RAVENS
Saturday, Jan 3 @ 11:00 PM
Vikings
Recent Topics
6h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

6h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

25-Jul / Around The NFL / Mucky Tundra

25-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

25-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / TheKanataThrilla

25-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / dfosterf

25-Jul / Around The NFL / beast

24-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

24-Jul / Around The NFL / beast

24-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

23-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

23-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

22-Jul / Random Babble / Zero2Cool

22-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

22-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2025 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.