[img_r]http://cmsimg.greenbaypressgazette.com/apps/pbcsi.dll/bilde?Site=U0&Date=20081101&Category=PKR07&ArtNo=81101055&Ref=AR&Profile=1058&MaxW=150&Border=0[/img_r]Simply put, 2006 was a bad year to have a prime pick in the first round of the NFL draft.
In many NFL drafts, selecting in the top 10 or even 15 gives a team its best shot at acquiring an elite player or at least a difference-maker. Its not easy, but the odds there are much better than anywhere else, including free agency.
But after 2 seasons, its apparent the pickins were slim indeed when the Green Bay Packers and their opponent Sunday, the Tennessee Titans, had the fifth and third picks, respectively, in the 06 draft.
Tennessee selected quarterback Vince Young, who after a promising start to his career has lost his starting job this season because of temperamental shortcomings. The Packers selected linebacker A.J. Hawk, a solid but not great player whose performance has slipped in 2008, presumably because of shoulder and groin injuries.
Most teams picking in the top half of that first round tell similar stories.
I thought there were maybe two or three players that were difference-makers and thats it, one NFL scout said. Usually theres eight to 12.
Ted Thompson, the Packers general manager, is not conceding that Hawk wont become an impact player, though the chances of that happening dont look promising nearly three years into Hawks career.
Hes been pretty good since he got here, Thompson said. Im not trying to debate you or anything, I just think hes a good player. He had a legitimate (groin) pull there that was keeping him from performing at a top level, and hes not going to complain about it. Im glad hes on our team.
But its hard to criticize Thompson for not finding an elite player with the highest-value pick hes had in his four drafts with the Packers. About the only player you can fault Thompson for not selecting instead of Hawk is defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who went to Baltimore at No. 12 overall.
After consulting three NFL scouts who study college and pro players every year, its apparent the top half of the first round of the 06 draft had only four players considered anything close to impact performers: defensive end Mario Williams (No. 1 overall), halfback Reggie Bush (No. 2), quarterback Jay Cutler (No. 11) and Ngata (No. 12).
The first two were taken before Thompsons turn at No. 5, and the third, Cutler, played quarterback, a position Thompson addressed in the first round of the previous years draft when he selected Aaron Rodgers.
The top 15 picks in 06 rate similarly to 05, which also had four difference-maker-type players: halfback Ronnie Brown (No. 2), receiver Braylon Edwards (No. 3), defensive end DeMarcus Ware (No. 11) and linebacker Shawne Merriman (No. 12).
But both drafts are a disaster compared to 2004, which was flush with eight quality picks among the top 15 selections: quarterback Eli Manning (No. 1), receiver Larry Fitzgerald (No. 3), quarterback Philip Rivers (No. 4), safety Sean Taylor (No. 5), tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. (No. 6), quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (No. 11), receiver Lee Evans (No. 13) and defensive tackle Tommie Harris (No. 14).
There was at least an outside chance the Packers could have ended up with one of the impact players in 06 if the drama leading up to draft day had turned out differently. Houston had the No. 1 pick and opened contract talks with Bush and Williams the week before the draft. The Texans signed Williams the day before the draft, but if theyd gone with Bush instead, two of the scouts said New Orleans appeared ready to take Hawk at No. 2 overall. Tennessee still would have selected Young at No. 3, and the New York Jets probably still would have taken left tackle DBrickashaw Ferguson at No. 4.
That would have left Williams for the Packers at No. 5.