I haven't looked at the numbers in depth recently, but to say the Packers weren't in third-and-long situations last year is absurd. Purely on an intuitive level, I'd guess they were in such situations more often last year than they are this year, which is one of the reasons why Rodgers' numbers on third down were so spectacular.
"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:
You are correct. They were in third and longs last year also, and I too would venture a guess based on intuition it was a similar number of times we've seen thus far. This begs the question of why, then, are we so unbelievably bad this year?
The more I look at replays and the more I read about it from people who have some competency in analyzing game film, the reason is because now we are getting into predictable third-and-longs. Teams are continuing to use variations of Cover 2 against us, and especially the last two games we've seen Cover 2 over top (Safties playing back) with everything underneath being man-to-man. For some reason, we've become a "pass till you cannot pass anymore, and then pass it again for kicks" offense.
The scheme being played on us by defenses is ripe for rushing on. Yes, I understand your QB is your best playmaker and a hell of a talent, but there is no shame in taking advantage of what the defense gives you. Simply put, McCarthy is for some reason choosing to call pass plays while sprinkling in a bit of run here and there. This means that when we get into third-and-longs, it's pretty obvious we will try to pass our way out of them and then the defenses prepare for that.
Why does McCarthy not run more to make defenses respect the possibility of a run? I can only think of two reasons: 1) McCarthy has lost his mind and cannot understand this concept; or 2) (more plausible) something is holding McCarthy back from calling runs.
I'm beginning to think more and more that McCarthy does not have complete faith in his Running Backs. Perhaps it's because he really only has one in B-Jack, with the other (Nance) still learning his way. Or, perhaps, McCarthy does not have the faith in the skills of his RBs to get done that which causes the defenses to respect the run more.
I'm not sure which it is; B-Jack showed two weeks ago that he can rip large runs to take advantage of the gaps present in Cover 2 schemes where only 7 players maximum are in the box, but in general he lacks the speed to consistently make LBs pay in 1-on-1 situations. Frankly, I'm beginning to think more and more that Ted has completely let McCarthy down by not giving him a speedier back - Kregg Lumpkin would have been a great option right about now.
This also explains to me why Aaron is seemingly having happy feet and is running into sacks like he did the last game. He is seeing the same mismatches the game tape is showing - middle of the field almost clear - and he feels he can take advantage of that. Hence, he tucks the ball and tries to get out in that clearing to make something positive happen, but his line is not able to sustain blocks highly enough to allow him the gaps to get to the middle of the field.
Put it concisely: we are too predictable on offense. And seeing as Ted isn't going to bring in a RB worth anything in terms of speed, either we run more with what we have or simply continue to try to make plays that aren't there in the passing game.
The NFL: Where Greg Jennings Happens.