NY Times link Green Bay Packers 2010 Season Preview
By ANDY BENOIT
Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and a writer for CBSSports.coms N.F.L. blog. He can be contacted at andy.benoit at NFLTouchdown.com.
A year ago, if youd asked typical Wisconsinites about their greatest fear, after a shortage of beer and brats, they might have said something like: Brett Favre unretires for a second time and joins the hated Vikings (or, as the former Packer Jerry Kramer called them, the dastardly Vikings). Favre goes on to have one of his best seasons, beating the Packers twice in the regular season and leading the Vikings deep into the playoffs.
As it turned out, of course, thats exactly what happened. And, as it turned out, this fear like most fears was far worse than the reality. Favre is still a Viking heading into 2010, but nothing should seem scary to Wisconsinites. Their Packers are at too high a level to worry about other teams. Yes, the Vikings are Super Bowl contenders but so are the Packers. In fact, its hard to see how the Packers can be denied a Super Bowl appearance if they play to their potential.
Aaron Rodgers, to his credit, has become a star under extreme pressure. He threw for 30 touchdowns with just seven interceptions in 09, posting a passer rating of 103.2. Last season, the Packers had the first N.F.L. offense to feature a 4,000-yard passer, a 1,200-yard rusher (Ryan Grant) and two 1,000-yard receivers (Donald Driver, Greg Jennings). All are back, equally as strong in 2010. And, by the way, third-year pro Jermichael Finley is about to blossom into the best tight end in the game.
So often, the question with great offenses is whether they can post enough points to compensate for a subpar defense. But this Packers team boasts an attacking and intricate 3-4 defense that ranked second in yards allowed last season. Reigning defensive player of the year Charles Woodson returns, as does two-time Pro Bowl free safety Nick Collins. And a pair of young players nose tackle B.J. Raji and outside linebacker Clay Matthews are poised for stardom.
A big factor in Green Bays success last season was turnover differential. The offense had the fewest turnovers in the league, and the defense forced the most. This speaks to a team-wide playmaking mentality, although history suggests turnover differential paints false pictures of hope when interpreted as a harbinger of success. (The perfect example: the Dolphins went 11-5 in leading the league with plus-17 turnovers in 08, then fell to 7-9 when they were minus-8 in turnovers in 09; another example: the Bears reached the Super Bowl with a plus-8 turnover differential in 06; in 07, they had a minus-one turnover differential and missed the playoffs altogether.) In short, turnover differential is an important statistic, but one that is hard to sustain from one year to the next.
Its unlikely the Packers will exhibit this kind of flakiness, however. For the past four seasons, this has been the youngest or one of the youngest teams in the N.F.L. Now, as the 14th-youngest team in the league, this Packers club is just settling into its prime. And everyone except Johnny Jolly is back in 2010. Including the stable figures at the top: Coach Mike McCarthy, who has left his stamp on the franchise; unfairly maligned G.M. Ted Thompson, who has constructed one of the leagues deepest rosters despite having a modest payroll; and team president Mark Murphy, who is becoming a bigger player in league executive circles each day. Spotting such continuity in todays game is as rare as spotting a white raccoon on the same day you got attacked by another white raccoon.
Of course, just because Wisconsinites should have unshakable confidence in their Packers doesnt mean they will. Fans are programmed to worry. What makes the natural ups of the game thrilling are the dreadful downs. So what is there to worry about with this club? Read along surely well be able to find something. And, if we dont, well, then Packers fans can worry about that.
Offense
For the first half of last season, the answer to what to worry about was easy: the offensive line. But the return of tackle Mark Tauscher in November and a healthier Chad Clifton helped solidify things. Both are back in 2010. And now, theres first-round rookie Bryan Bulaga around to stabilize the left tackle spot when the 34-year-old Clifton retires. (Even fretting about the future seems senseless with this team.)
Neither Clifton nor Tauscher dazzles individually these days, but their calming presence and dependable style (contrasted with the roller coaster of horror that youngsters T.J. Lang and especially Allen Barbre provide) soothes the wobbly interior line. A lot of blame for that interior wobble has been cast upon left guard Daryn Colledge. He operates with questionable leverage and technique at times, but most of his struggles have come when hes having to play out of position or is next to other guys who are playing out of position. When his surroundings are stable, Colledge shows promise.
Still, because Colledge stayed away for the early part of the off-season, he must now fight off good friend and fellow fifth-year pro Jason Spitz for his starting job. (And possibly on the horizon is fifth-round rookie Marshall Newhouse.) Spitz, who is coming off November back surgery (a significant side note), was supposed to challenge for the starting center job, but wily veteran Scott Wells has simply been too good to supplant.
Bad as this Packers front five was early last season, its still fair to say that Aaron Rodgers must take fewer sacks. Rodgers has a tendency to hold on to the ball when his reads arent clearly defined (i.e. when hes dissecting zone coverage). He is one of the best timing and rhythm passers in the game, in part because he has the toughness to endure big hits in the pocket.
Rodgerss chemistry with Donald Driver and Greg Jennings is excellent. Driver and Jennings are two of the best slant-running wideouts. Both have dangerous speed when running after the catch, and both are savvy enough to make improvised plays downfield. Jordy Nelson and James Jones are two speedy, athletic slot options. Nelson is a little bigger (63, 217 vs. Joness 61, 208) and more reliable, so hell be first off the bench.
Nelson might be the No. 3 receiver, but he wont be the third option in the passing game. That distinction goes to sensational 23-year-old tight end Jermichael Finley, who has replaced the inconsistent Donald Lee in the starting lineup. In fact, Finley could become the top option. He is Antonio Gates with more size and athleticism. He has soft hands and uncanny body control. The key will be whether there are enough balls available in this offense for Finley to post big numbers.
At least 20 times a game, the ball will be in the hands of running back Ryan Grant. Statistically speaking, Grant is a fine runner (1,203 yards in 08, 1,253 yards in 09). But he is mechanical almost to the point of stiff. He does not have breakaway speed or acceleration; his numbers are a product of gaping holes and playing in an offense that scares opponents through the air.
Korey Hall and John Kuhn will continue to battle for the fullback duties. Hall is quicker, Kuhn is stronger. The problem for them: Last years fifth-round pick, Quinn Johnson, is quicker and stronger than both. If Johnson figures out what hes doing, hell earn most of the snaps. Brandon Jackson is an erratic No. 2 runner but excellent pass-blocker and screen pass receiver. Still, he could be pushed for playing time by sixth-round rookie James Starks.
Defense
There is plenty of buzz about this Packers defense and rightfully so. Dom Capers is one of the smartest, most creative coordinators in the game. And, as mentioned earlier, Capers has many weapons at his disposal. But lets not forget, this is the same unit that gave up 45 points to the Cardinals in that frenzied 51-45 wild-card loss. In that game, Kurt Warner riddled the N.F.L.s supposed fifth-best pass defense for 379 yards and 5 touchdowns.
To prevent a repeat disaster, Green Bay needs to get more from its No. 2 cornerback. Whether thats veteran Al Harris or fill-in starter Tramon Williams remains to be seen. Harris is 35 and coming off late November ACL surgery. He is a classic press corner but is capable of meeting this schemes zone demands. Williams is a superb athlete but a fundamentally flawed player. Hes prone to penalties and struggles with his coverage technique when facing quality opponents. If he can polish his mechanics, hell win the job outright because he has shown hints of playmaking prowess. Jarrett Bush and Pat Lee will compete for No. 4 duties.
The No. 1 corner obviously isnt an issue. Another season like his 09 campaign and Charles Woodson (who turns 34 in October) could find himself Canton bound. His tremendous man-to-man skills have eroded only slightly (if at all), but Woodson is still not really a shutdown corner. His value in this scheme is as a playmaking Swiss Army Knife. Capers uses Woodson in varied ways, much as Dick LeBeau uses Troy Polamalu.
Part of the reason Capers can be creative in the way he uses his superstar corner is that rangy free safety Nick Collins is a dependable last line of defense. Collins has improved each of his first five seasons, earning back-to-back Pro Bowl honors in 08 and 09 and a four-year, $26.75 million contract this off-season (with $14 million guaranteed). Strong safety Atari Bigby wanted a long-term contract but received a restricted free-agent tender of $1.759 million. He protested by staying away from OTAs, opening the door for playmaking third-round rookie Morgan Burnett to snatch his starting job. Bigby remains a restricted free agent.
The only other starting position up for grabs is the left outside linebacker slot, and its likely that last years seventh-round pick, Brad Jones, will lock that up before the preseason begins. Jones is a swift athlete who could blossom into a key cog if he gets better at shedding blocks. The man he must hold off for the job is Brady Poppinga, a quick but uninspiring veteran who is eager to play the pass-rushing role that made him a star at B.Y.U.
The most luminous pass-rusher on this team is second-year sensation Clay Matthews. The Pro Bowler from U.S.C. skims the edges with rare speed and balance. Expect Matthews to become more dominant all-around as his experience builds.
Inside linebackers A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett are both closer to average than good. Hawk is stout in congested areas but less valuable in the open field. Barnett lacks awareness but has excellent closing quickness when he attacks. Backup Brandon Chillar also sees playing time, primarily as a roving fifth linebacker in 3-5-3 zone run-stopping sets.
We saved the best for last: Green Bays front line. Ryan Pickett was phenomenal at nose tackle last season, but coaches have still decided to slide him to end in 2010. At this point, anything should be O.K. with Pickett he signed a four-year, $24.95 million contract in March.
Picketts position change was ordered so that second-year star B.J. Raji can get acquainted with the nose tackle slot that hes expected to occupy for the next decade. Raji has startling explosiveness. Hell regularly command double teams once he gets more comfortable with the pro game.
Rounding out the front three is end Cullen Jenkins, maybe Green Bays best defensive lineman. Jenkinss lateral agility and penetration are a big reason the Packers ranked No. 1 against the run last season. In 2010, with Johnny Jolly suspended indefinitely for drugs, Jenkins will share some of his reps with backups Justin Harrell and Mike Neal. Harrell, an oft-injured 07 first-round pick, reportedly had his best off-season. Neal, a second-round pick this year, was a defensive tackle at Purdue but is built to anchor in this scheme.
Special Teams
Kicker Mason Crosby hasnt shown ideal consistency, but coaches were comfortable enough with him not to bring in a veteran competitor in the off-season. Undrafted free agents Tim Masthay (second year) and Chris Bryan (first year) will compete for the punting duties. Neither has kicked in even a preseason game. The winner will be whoever Mike McCarthy thinks least resembles last years punter, Jeremy Kapinos. Jordy Nelson is expected to handle punt and kick returns, though coaches would love to see Will Blackmon finally stay healthy (his latest injury was to an ACL last October).
Bottom Line
Green Bay is rock solid on both sides of the ball, with stars in all the right places. If everyone stays healthy, this team is the Super Bowl favorite in the N.F.C.
Prediction: 1st N.F.C. North
Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and a writer for CBSSports.coms N.F.L. blog. He can be contacted at andy.benoit at NFLTouchdown.com.