A look at the numbers reveals inconsistent results

[img_r]http://cmsimg.greenbaypressgazette.com/apps/pbcsi.dll/bilde?Site=U0&Date=20081011&Category=PKR01&ArtNo=81011054&Ref=AR&Profile=1058&MaxW=318&Border=0[/img_r]Normally, self-scouting evaluations are reserved for the bye week. Thats when coaches dissect everything thats happened during the first part of the season in order to spot trends, find ways to break tendencies and cure what ails their team.

The Green Bay Packers offensive coaches could not afford to wait two more weeks, so this week they undertook a mini self-scouting project in order to find out what has gone wrong in their current three-game losing streak that has left them with a 2-3 record heading into todays key road game against the Seattle Seahawks.

Their mission was to compare the first games of last season, when they went 4-1, to the first five games of this season.

Heres what they found:

[ul] They have actually run the ball more effectively 478 yards rushing and a 4.0-yard average per carry this year to 338 yards and a 3.4 average last year

Touchdown passes (nine) and interceptions (four) were exactly the same.

Completion percentage (62.5 percent) was slightly lower than last year (67.1 percent).

Their yards-per-play average (5.79 this year) was better than last year (5.66).[/ul]

No obvious shortcomings there. So wheres the problem?

Last year, they ran 320 plays from scrimmage in the first five games. This year, they have run only 298. An average of 4.4 fewer plays per game might not seem like much. But a closer look says otherwise.

Of their 58 offensive drives this season, they have gone three-and-out 16 times. That means on more than one quarter of their possessions 27.6 percent they have failed to move the chains at least once. Only nine NFL teams have a worse three-and-out percentage this season. Last year, their season-long three-and-out percentage was 19.5. That was 10th best in the league and less than four percentage points higher than the league leader (New England, 15.6 percent).

Yet once Aaron Rodgers and Co. get rolling, the offense rarely gets stopped. Their red-zone offense ranks sixth in the NFL, scoring touchdowns when inside the 20 at a 63.6-percent clip.

Thats the problem, Rodgers said. Its been three-and-out or 10 plays and a score.

To say the offense has been feast or famine might be an overstatement, but offensive coordinator Joe Philbin said he couldnt argue the premise.

No, I dont think you are (overstating it), Philbin said this week. You look at the Tampa game, we score the first drive of the game, and then we were the absolute pits. This (past) week (against Atlanta), we got 10 yards in the first quarter and had 400 in the next three. I think the biggest thing that slowed us down the biggest difference is we dont have as many plays. Were not converting enough and our negative-yardage plays are up, whether it be penalties, sacks are up a little bit, negative-yardage runs are up a little bit, things that have made it hard to overcome.

Whats worse, last week against the Falcons, the Packers began the game with consecutive three-and-outs. Thats hardly how Philbin and McCarthy envisioned the opening play script when they drew it up during their weekly Thursday night meeting to plan out the first dozen or so plays. Hoping to establish a rhythm and get the Lambeau Field crowd into the game right away, they flamed out.

Already down 7-0, Rodgers was sacked on the first play and lost 4 yards. Ryan Grant didnt get back to the original line of scrimmage with a 3-yard run on second down, and a screen pass to Brandon Jackson on third-and-11 gained 7 yards. Center Scott Wells was flagged for holding on that play, a penalty the Falcons declined, and the Packers punted.

Down 10-0 when the offense took the field for a second time, Grant ran for gains of 1 and 3 on the first two plays, and then Greg Jennings dropped a pass on third-and-6 that likely would have gone for a first down.

We made a point on Monday the negative yardage plays that we had, the penalties those were really training camp plays, Philbin said. Those were plays weve been running since last April. Theyre not plays where youd say we outsmarted the Atlanta Falcons on this one. These were literally Football 101 plays. Theyre good plays. We know these plays well. Weve done them multiple times. That was the point we emphasized to our guys. When youre doing stuff thats basic, its hard to swallow.

A start like that this week against the Seahawks at Qwest Field one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL could be disastrous.

Both Philbin and Rodgers agreed theres something psychologically debilitating about running three plays and giving way to the punter. Thats why a pair of second-half drives that started deep in their own territory against the Falcons were so important. Neither resulted in touchdowns but when the Packers began the third quarter on their own 9-yard line and crossed into Falcons territory before finally having to punt, it was deemed a success. Likewise, when they began their next drive at their own 2-yard line and got a 50-yard Mason Crosby field goal out of it, it was important in terms of momentum.

We changed the field position, Rodgers said. Thats important stuff. But we have to finish those drives off. We had good third-down conversions on those drives.

Their third-down conversion rate this season (42.4 percent) is only slightly lower than it was last year through five games (44.1 percent).

The same emotional edge the Falcons defense gained when it forced the consecutive three-and-outs hasnt been in the repertoire of the Packers defense. In 61 series this season, the Packers have forced just seven three-and-outs. That 11.5-percent mark ranks dead last in the league. Last year, they were 16th in the league at forcing three-and-outs (22.5 percent).

Their percentage would be much higher if not for key third-down penalties. Four times in the last two games, the Packers had seemingly forced three-and-outs before flags were thrown. Two of those drives ended with the defense surrendering touchdowns. Against the Falcons, a questionable pass interference call against rookie cornerback Pat Lee on third-and-9 at the Falcons 11-yard line kept the drive alive. Against the Buccaneers, cornerback Charles Woodson was flagged for illegal contact on a third-and-10 pass that went incomplete, giving the Bucs an automatic first down that they turned into a touchdown.

We were actually three-and-out and off the field (on those drives), defensive coordinator Bob Sanders said. For one reason or another, we end up having to go back out on the field. Good defenses (force three-and-outs), and thats what weve got to do better.