I keep seeing Packers fans arguing in favor of Aaron Rodgers winning NFL MVP. Again, I cannot stress this enough; careful what ya ask for.


1999 Kurt Warner - Won Super Bowl XXXIV
2000 Marshall Faulk - Lost Wild Card
2001 Kurt Warner - Lost Super Bowl CCCVI
2002 Rich Gannon - Lost Super Bowl XXXVI
2003 Peyton Manning / Steve McNair - Both Lost Divisional Round
2004 Peyton Manning - Lost Divisional Round
2005 Shaun Alexander - Lost Super Bowl XL
2006 LaDainian Tomlinson - Lost Divisional Round
2007 Tom Brady - Lost Super Bowl XLII
2008 Peyton Manning - Lost Wild Card
2009 Peyton Manning - Lost Super Bowl XLIV
2010 Tom Brady - Lost Divisional Round
2011 Aaron Rodgers - Lost Divisional Round
2012 Adrian Peterson - Lost Wild Card
2013 Peyton Manning - Lost Super Bowl XLVIII
2014 Aaron Rodgers - Lost Conference Championship
2015 Cam Newton - Lost Super Bowl 50
2016 Matt Ryan - Lost Super Bowl LI
2017 Tom Brady - Lost Super Bowl LII
2018 Patrick Mahomes - Lost Conference Championship
2019 Lamar Jackson - Lost Divisional Round

---

Hey! Kurt Warner won the super bowl! So it CAN happen! 😁

---

Hey! Kurt Warner won the super bowl! So it CAN happen! 😁

That is true. I just don't like the trend, lol. I think the reason a QB gets MVP is because they played so great. And chances are they had to play great to compensate for a pour defense. 🤦‍♂️

---

That is true. I just don't like the trend, lol. I think the reason a QB gets MVP is because they played so great. And chances are they had to play great to compensate for a pour defense. 🤦‍♂️

This is a good point, it's fairly common that exceptional individual performances happen because one player is depended upon for too much, while more balanced teams tend to prevail in the big game.

That said, the optimist in me looks at this list and sees that 1/2 of the MVP winners end up in the Super Bowl, and you gotta get there to have a chance to win it, so I'm all for it. The absurdly optimistic part of me looks at this and says we're (statistically) ripe for another MVP + Super Bowl winner as well.

(The realist in me thinks the Packers lose the championship game or earlier - regardless of who wins the MVP.)

---

This is a good point, it's fairly common that exceptional individual performances happen because one player is depended upon for too much, while more balanced teams tend to prevail in the big game.

That said, the optimist in me looks at this list and sees that 1/2 of the MVP winners end up in the Super Bowl, and you gotta get there to have a chance to win it, so I'm all for it. The absurdly optimistic part of me looks at this and says we're (statistically) ripe for another MVP + Super Bowl winner as well.

(The realist in me thinks the Packers lose the championship game or earlier - regardless of who wins the MVP.)

I wonder if the common theme for those teams that failed to win the Super Bowl was their MVP didn't have an MVP performance and the defense couldn't win it?

---

I wonder if the common theme for those teams that failed to win the Super Bowl was their MVP didn't have an MVP performance and the defense couldn't win it?

It's a good theory. I was just looking at Aaron Rodgers' playoff stats yesterday and the general trend was that he didn't have out-of-this-world performances in many of the losses. A good example is the 2011 season (his first MVP) where they were one and done and he posted a 78.5 rating against the Giants. He also posted a 55.8 rating in 2014 vs Seattle following his second MVP, but that loss (special teams debacle) was hardly on him.

Though this is not expressly true of Rodgers' playoff losses, in 2009 (facemask game vs Arizon) he had a 121.4 rating, and he's had 91-97 ratings in other losses, which while less than god-like, is still pretty good (though a little below his career average). He also won in Chicago with a 55.4 rating during the Super Bowl run. To be fair, the Bears suck, so that's not a performance you can expect your QB to have and still win in the playoffs against real teams.

It would be interesting to do a comprehensive breakdown of the MVPs in this list and their playoff performances in that year. I bet for QBs many of them didn't do quite well enough to carry their teams, and for RBs, well, RBs have limited means to affect games and are generally easier to account for than elite QBs.

---

That is true. I just don't like the trend, lol. I think the reason a QB gets MVP is because they played so great. And chances are they had to play great to compensate for a pour defense. 🤦‍♂️

The law of averages says it should go the other way then about now lol...

But the fact is, there are 14 playoffs teams this year and only one can win the whole thing.


Another bad stat, this offense scheme has been in the Super 4 of the last 5 years. And gone 1-3 in those Super Bowls. And the NFC teams with this offensive scheme have gone 0-3 (or really the non-Broncos teams in history really).

- But Peyton Manning final year,
- Matt Ryan's Falcons
- Rams recently
- 49ers last year

In the good news, Rodgers is clearly better than Rams or 49ers QBs, and Peyton won it and Matt Ryan took it to overtime... so there is a chance....


Not a very good one, but a chance.

---