beast
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4 years ago

A handful of common draft myths debunked and explained.
The post NFL Draft Myths Debunked — Packers & General Draft Myths Explained appeared first on Pack to the Future.


Continue Reading @ PackToTheFuture 

PackToTheFuture wrote:


I thought this article was a great article, explaining how the Packers work.

Packers under Ted Thompson and Gute always seem to draft a needed position in the 2nd round, when you define it as needed before next year, as there might be an important player in a contract year now.

Also Gute seems to be huge on the positional value. Which the top 6 positions by NFL scouts are said to be

First Tier: QB, CB, OT, Edge Rusher
Second Tier: S and TE

Gute has drafted all the positions in the first round except OT and TE so far. Though I'm guessing he'll go defense. And they have mentioned ILB needs to get better, and if they want to run lots of Tampa 2, a coverage ILB might be extremely important.

And simply put, TEs don't seem to develop as well in college, so there are generally less than are worth first round picks to use on them, so I don't expect one of them to be selected more years as there is usually only one TE that MIGHT go near Packers 1st round pick. Low odds.
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KRK
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4 years ago
Beast, thanks for posting...an EXCELLENT read.
In Luce tua Videmus Lucem KRK
wpr
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4 years ago

So when you see on ESPN or really any media around this time talking about a player ‘shooting up’ draft boards. Its not true. The player may be going up in their(the media’s) draft boards, but not NFL teams. NFL teams start scouting players as early as their Sophomore years. It is people in the media catching up to the NFL.



100% correct. It's really annoying to watch __________ (fill in the blank) act like he knows what the hell he's talking about. For the most part, they don't. They got a good paying job and they want to keep it so they act like they are "experts".

Mel Kiper has been wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, WRONG!!!!!! (How does he even keep his job, he's been wrong some often? Seriously!) And yet ESPN keeps trotting him out there as if he's some draft savant. They stick his thoughts behind a pay wall and force you (if you're gullible to pay to he his wrongness.)

I heard a podcast last year that says (and I will probably not get it exactly right.) teams group players according to value. Once all the top players are gone in the first 5-10 picks then you have a group of maybe 10 guys. A team looks over the group and they tend to take the best player out of that group that fits their needs. If they don't think anyone in the group has the correct value, they look to trade down. If there are 6 guys in that group and another team wants to trade up 4 spots, they trade down because they know one of the 6 is still going to be there when it's their turn once again.

The best franchises don't get hung up over a specific position. Granted the lowest teams typically need a QB so they try and get one in the first 3-5 picks. They might be reaching a little on value but they are looking 4-5 years down the road hoping the guy they took is going to be their franchise QB for the next 10 years. And yet, they still screw up. *Cough* bears *Cough. SF taking Smith instead of Aaron and on it goes.

I like the article. Good job.










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Mucky Tundra
4 years ago

I heard a podcast last year that says (and I will probably not get it exactly right.) teams group players according to value. Once all the top players are gone in the first 5-10 picks then you have a group of maybe 10 guys. A team looks over the group and they tend to take the best player out of that group that fits their needs. If they don't think anyone in the group has the correct value, they look to trade down. If there are 6 guys in that group and another team wants to trade up 4 spots, they trade down because they know one of the 6 is still going to be there when it's their turn once again

Originally Posted by: wpr 



I think the clearest example of this was the drafting of HaHa in 2014. The team had a clear need at S and HaHa was a clear mid to late 1st round player. That year everything synced up with their pick at 21.

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Zero2Cool
4 years ago
I've already told you what you need to know about the draft. Example, this Mel Kiper Jr guy is a douche punk.
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Zero2Cool
4 years ago

I think the clearest example of this was the drafting of HaHa in 2014. The team had a clear need at S and HaHa was a clear mid to late 1st round player. That year everything synced up with their pick at 21.

Originally Posted by: Mucky Tundra 



How did the team have clear need at Safety with Morgan Burnett and Micah Hyde? Hell, even Sean Richardson was smashing people. The secondary was a strength, not a clear need. That 2014 draft left a lot to be desired once you got out of the middle of round one. Ha'Sean was nothing more than the best available at the 21st spot. I'm prepared to fight you on this. LET'S GET READY TO RUMMMMMMMMMMMMMBLE!!

If the Packers were going to draft for a need, it would have been someone like Dee Ford or Kyle Van Noy. Someone on the front seven, not the back four.

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beast
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4 years ago
Very one is starting to say CB Greg Newsome II, so either it doesn't happen or Gute trades up to make it happen.

Also looking at Asante Samuel Jr, in some ways he reminds me of Alexander. Though smaller, abd Alexander is already on the small side.

Never going to happen, but I was dreaming of the possiblity to draft BOTH Newsome and Samuel.

How did the team have clear need at Safety with Morgan Burnett and Micah Hyde? Hell, even Sean Richardson was smashing people. The secondary was a strength, not a clear need. That 2014 draft left a lot to be desired once you got out of the middle of round one. Ha'Sean was nothing more than the best available at the 21st spot. I'm prepared to fight you on this. LET'S GET READY TO RUMMMMMMMMMMMMMBLE!!

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 

Hyde was a slot CB for the Packers, Richardson was used as an athletic zone LB, whom you didn't want in man coverage. Burnett was good, but not a FS. Packers had no FS...

Off my head, I don't remember the exact CB situation they were in during Haha's draft. But I remember there was times everyone was demanding Hyde become a Safety, but the Packers depth at CB was so thin, I didn't believe they could even consider it, as they needed more CB help.

If the Packers were going to draft for a need, it would have been someone like Dee Ford or Kyle Van Noy. Someone on the front seven, not the back four.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 

I believe most where saying Safety was a huge need, and mocking Haha if he were to fall that far.


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Zero2Cool
4 years ago

I believe most where saying Safety was a huge need, and mocking Haha if he were to fall that far.

Originally Posted by: beast 



Which should tell you exactly everything you need to know. If fans are saying it in abundance, they are wrong. What happens is someone gets it going and then one fan leads into two, three, four and it's maddening. Especially when a reporter speculates on something and then radio shows pick up on that citing "reports state". Fans consume this and it gets spoken into existence. Generally speaking, fans do not understand, nor comprehend that nothing can be trusted from any outlet during the first four months of the calendar year. Which is why I think it's great how straight Brian Gutenkunst is with us. He doesn't give us a bunch of BS. He said he expects Preston to be with the Packers while every tom dick an harry moron was saying Preston was good as gone as cap casualty. Do we get apologies from those fucktards? Hell no. They have gravitated towards "OMG Aaron Rodgers hasn't restructured/extended yet -- that means he's OUT after 2021!". I almost interjected myself into a Twitter squabble over this. Mike Silver said the Packers are in talks with Aaron Rodgers about a restructure. Bill Huber said it "According to NFL Network, the #Packers and their MVP QB are talking about a restructured contract." and that kind of generalization just bugs the shit out of me. Maybe it's common practice that one reporter speaks for the entire network/employer. However, it ties into something that bothers the shit out of me. If a Cashier at Target rapes someone, we get hyperbolic headlines like "Target rapes customers".

And fuck Mike Silver! The shit stain fuck blocked me after I corrected him on something. And since I knew how sensitive the swimming pool accident is, I was cognizant to be polite.

Oh yea, the topic. Umm, the secondary was not a need going into the 2014 Draft. The draft class was just weak as shit after you got through half the first round. It would have been a good year to trade your picks for the following year.


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Mucky Tundra
4 years ago

How did the team have clear need at Safety with Morgan Burnett and Micah Hyde? Hell, even Sean Richardson was smashing people. The secondary was a strength, not a clear need. That 2014 draft left a lot to be desired once you got out of the middle of round one. Ha'Sean was nothing more than the best available at the 21st spot. I'm prepared to fight you on this. LET'S GET READY TO RUMMMMMMMMMMMMMBLE!!

If the Packers were going to draft for a need, it would have been someone like Dee Ford or Kyle Van Noy. Someone on the front seven, not the back four.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



As beast points out, Hyde was still the slot CB and was only just began getting time as a FS that year. Also, GB wanted another S to run the Big Okie unit :

Capers concocted two different packages designed to maximize the 6-foot-2, 216-pound safety's skill set. The first, the Big Okie, saw Richardson sub into their 3-4 base defense as a third safety in place of a perimeter cornerback. The second, the Big Nickel, dropped Richardson into the slot.



If you want a unit with 3 safeties and two them are going to be Burnett and Richardson (and Hyde stays at CB), that means you need a FS/centerfield type and your options are:
a. Roll with 2nd year UDFA Chris Banjo at FS
b. Continue the Jerron McMillian experience
c. Sign someone in FA
d. Draft someone like HaHa or Jimmie Ward

Datone Jones and Josh Boyd were entering their 2nd year and Nick Perry and Mike Daniels their 3rd. Mike Neal had signed an extension before 2013. Throw in Ted signing Letroy Guion and Julius Peppers as well as Clay still fooling people into thinking he was a full time OLB, the needs on defense were ILB and FS. In the run up to the draft, I distinctly remember the talk being either CJ Mosley or HaHa if one would fall to GB. Had GB signed a safety instead of Peppers, I'd imagine the debate would have been CJ Mosley or Dee Ford.

Hyde was a slot CB for the Packers, Richardson was used as an athletic zone LB, whom you didn't want in man coverage. Burnett was good, but not a FS. Packers had no FS...

Off my head, I don't remember the exact CB situation they were in during Haha's draft. But I remember there was times everyone was demanding Hyde become a Safety, but the Packers depth at CB was so thin, I didn't believe they could even consider it, as they needed more CB help.

I believe most where saying Safety was a huge need, and mocking Haha if he were to fall that far.

Originally Posted by: beast 



CBs at the time were Tramon, Shields, Hayward, Hyde, House, Goodson and Bush. Tramon had been playing through a nerve injury for several years and I think people were afraid he was on the decline as he hadn't played as well as he had since the Super Bowl run. Shields had started to ascend in 2013. Hayward had a great rookie year and then had a injury plagued 2013, so there was a question as to how he would fare in his 3rd year. I think Hyde was seen as a "super-sub" (great backup but not starter material) while House was well, House. Goodson was a rookie and Bush was there for ST.
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