Now that the numbness has worn off a bit, some thoughts about the future:
► I wrote this at the beginning of the season and I believe it’s even more true now. Aaron Rodgers’ trade value is being vastly over estimated. This motherlode of first round picks, extra picks and players the Packers will supposedly get for Rodgers may be unrealistic. If Rodgers chooses not to return, other teams will low ball Green Bay, knowing the team has no choice but to accept a trade from somebody.
What the Packers can demand for their future Hall of Famer may have declined even further after he stated he does not want to be part of a rebuild. If that’s true, that rules out the bad teams who would have the multiple first rounders in the coming draft to offer. At least four teams have more than one selection in the first round of this year’s draft. The Jets, Lions and Giants each have two, and the Eagles have three. The Lions are in Green Bay’s division, so that’s a non-starter. The Jets and Giants are most certainly in a rebuild, so that would rule them out. The Eagles are not a likely trade partner for Green Bay because they are in the NFC, and especially because they are on the Packers schedule next season. Green Bay will play the Eagles in Philadelphia.
In effect, Rodgers has veto power over any pending trade. That’s because any team trading for him would have to renegotiate his $46 million cap hit due next year. He can simply refuse to renegotiate with any team he doesn’t want to play for, thereby stopping any trade. Rodgers will only accept a trade to a contender. Contenders will not have multiple first round picks to offer, unless they trade away selections in future years. Would a top team really want to mortgage its future years in advance for a quarterback who will be 39 years old next fall, and stunk in the most recent playoffs?
The Denver Broncos, who are hiring Green Bay offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett as their head coach, may offer a more realistic example of what the Packers could expect. The Broncos own the ninth pick in the first round of the coming draft. They also have two picks in the second round, and two more in the third. I could see them offering the first rounder and both of the second rounders, plus a player or two, for Rodgers. Anything more than that is probably wishful thinking. I will be ecstatic if Green Bay winds up with multiple first round selections, but I’m not expecting it.
► The fact that Matt LaFleur, Brian Gutekunst and Russ Ball are going to do everything they can to bring Rodgers back tells you everything you need to know about Jordan Love. The first round pick in 2020 really hasn’t shown much to get excited about in his very limited opportunities. They see him in practice every day. They obviously feel he’s not ready.
I actually think Love can develop into an adequate NFL starter, but it’s going to take a lot of time, and likely a lot of losing. He’s not a natural phenom like Mahomes or Burrow. He’s a project. It’s going to take a full season or two of starting, seeing defenses, making mistakes and learning from them. Gutey and LaFleur have to be concerned that their jobs may not survive a couple of four or five win seasons. So I’m not surprised they appear ready to commit to Rodgers for multiple years. Bringing him back is job security.
► Wideouts not named Davante Adams contributed next to nothing in the playoffs against the 49ers. Whether Adams decides to stay or not, there is once again going to be a drumbeat for the Packers to draft a receiver in the first round. There are no instant stars like Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase in this year’s crop. But there is some exciting talent. Ohio State’s tandem of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave are outstanding. Both of Alabama’s blue chippers, John Metchie and Jameson Williams, will be coming off injuries and may well be there late in the first round. Southern Cal’s Drake London is high on the list of many draft gurus.
My personal crush is Purdue’s David Bell. He’s versatile, physical, acrobatic and catches everything. Not really a first rounder, but he’d be a steal in the second or third round.
► Last weekend’s playoff games were a stark example of the difference between great quarterbacks in their prime, and great quarterbacks past their prime. Great QB’s in their prime play their best football in the clutch when the game is on the line. Witness how Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen put their teams on their backs and executed one clutch drive after another. Matthew Stafford saved his best throw of the game for the final minute when the Rams had to have it.
Compare that to the way Aaron Rodgers fizzled late against the Niners when the Packers absolutely had to have a few big throws. Remember the 2011 Super Bowl? Rodgers, then in his prime, skewered the Steelers with clutch pinpoint passes to lead his team to the Lombardi trophy.
► Here’s one thing that should be encouraging to Green Bay fans. The 49ers are living proof that you don’t have to have a Hall of Fame quarterback to win in the playoffs. Jimmy Garoppolo had a QB rating of 57.1 against the Packers. He had no touchdowns, one interception, and should have had another couple picked off. He was playing hurt, but even when healthy he can hardly be regarded as more than mediocre. Yet the Niners won with tough defense and a strong running game. The Packers definitely have the elements to transition to being that sort of team if Aaron Rodgers departs.
The Titans ascended to the number one seed in the AFC with Ryan Tannehill under center. The Eagles got to the post season with Jalen Hurts, the Steelers with a washed up Ben Roethlisberger. There is ample reason for hope.
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