2016 path to 2nd seed (no more chance)

Zero2Cool
Elite Member Topic Starter

8 years ago

The Packers can actually reach the 2nd seed.

With a lot of pixy dust.

Buccaneers must lose 2 of last 3 (Cowboys, Saints and Panthers)
Falcons must lose against Panthers AND Saints
Seahawks must lose to Cardinals AND 49ers
Packers must beat Vikings AND Lions

If Buccaneers lose tonight against Cowboys, they only need to lose against Saints OR Panthers.
If Buccaneers win tonight against Cowboys, then they must lose both remaining games.

Week 16
Packers over Vikings
Saints over Buccaneers
Panthers over Falcons
Cardinals over Seahawks

Week 17
Packers over Lions
Panthers over Buccaneers
Saints over Falcons
49ers over Seahawks

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nerdmann
Premier Member

8 years ago

A week off would do this team an immense world of good. They are very banged up, and had a super early bye this year.

It'd be great, but I'd be happy with just making the post season.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

Zero2Cool
Elite Member Topic Starter

8 years ago

A week off would do this team an immense world of good. They are very banged up, and had a super early bye this year.

It'd be great, but I'd be happy with just making the post season.

Originally Posted by: nerdmann

I believe we are in a win and you're in scenario now. I haven't found a path with both wins and missing playoffs.

The Packers can actually lose against Lions and still make playoffs. They just need Redskins to lose 2 of last 3 and Buccaneers to lose all three.

buckeyepackfan
Veteran Member

8 years ago

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool

Considering the fact that 4 weeks ago The Packers were being written off by Every "Talking Head" in the Media, I'll take a win and you"re in scenario.

4 down 2 to go!
#assesagainstthewall!

I was addicted to The Hokey Pokey, but I turned myself around!

Barfarn
Senior Member

8 years ago

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool

Actually, with Bucs losing to Dallas tonight, if us and Bucs each win 1 [and Atl wins one, so they win division], the tie break will be strength of victory between us and Bucs. And we presently have a slight edge right now on Bucs.

nerdmann
Premier Member

8 years ago

Originally Posted by: Barfarn

Cool.

And I still take Dallas over Detroit this week.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

Zero2Cool
Elite Member Topic Starter

8 years ago

Originally Posted by: Barfarn

If Packers and Buccaneers tie, Buccaneers get the slot, not the Packers. Unless I'm missing something here, but each run through I do, the Packers are out with your parameters being used.

Week 16
Packers over Vikings, Saints over Buccaneers, Falcons over Panthers.

Week 17
Lions over Packers, Buccaneers over Panthers, Saints over Falcons.

6th Seed - Buccaneers - Wins tie break over Green Bay based on best win percentage in common games.

Show Spoiler

Interesting to note: Falcons, Bears, Seahawks, and Cowboys look to be the common games.
Buccaneers went 3 - 2 and Packers went 3 - 2.

I'm confused on how common games works, if what I just shown is not true. Do they take overall record or record elimination? So confused.

Bucs and Packers lost to Cowboys
Bucs and Packers beat Seahawks
Bucs beat Bears once. Packers beat Bears twice
Bucs beat Falcons once and lost once. Packers lost to Falcons once.

So, do Bucs get more credit for beating Falcons one of two times when Packers lost the single time they played and thus get the edge?

And this link says Bucs over Packers for 7th seed because "Wins tie break over Green Bay based on best win percentage in common games."
http://www.espn.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff

BUT .... If we flip the loss from Lions to Vikings, then Packers get the division and 4th seed.

Cheesey
Preferred Member

8 years ago

I just want to win the division and get into the playoffs!
The Vikings had that 5-0 start, looked like they were going to run away with the division, and the wheels have fallen off them!
Now.....we need to finish them off this Saturday!!!
How sweet would THAT be? Then beat the "Loins" the next week, and we are division champs with a home playoff game.
It's all in our own hands now.

mi_keys
Senior Member

8 years ago

Show Spoiler

BUT .... If we flip the loss from Lions to Vikings, then Packers get the division and 4th seed.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool

I believe Barfarn is correct. As your spoiler notes, the Packers and Bucs are both 3-2 in the common games:

Green Bay swept Chicago, beat Seattle, lost to Atlanta, and lost to Dallas (3-2).
Tampa split with Atlanta, beat Seattle, beat Chicago, and lost to Dallas (3-2).

Green Bay and Tampa have no other common games but the 5 above. Green Bay only played Seattle from the NFC West, while Tampa played the whole division. Tampa only played Dallas from the NFC East, while Green Bay played the whole division. Green Bay played only Atlanta from the NFC South and Tampa played only Chicago from the NFC North. They have no common AFC opponents.

If you assert that common games must consider home vs. away (e.g. Green Bay doesn't count the road win against Chicago since Tampa only played Chicago at home), then there are only three common games (home against Chicago, away against Atlanta, and home against Seattle). While Tampa is 3-0 in these games to Green Bay's 2-1 (loss to Atlanta), the common game tiebreaker outside the division requires a minimum four games.

In this case, strength of victory is the next tiebreaker. Green Bay currently leads .442 to .437.

For what it's worth, CBS lists Green Bay as the current 7 seed, ahead of Tampa on strength of victory.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace

Yahoo playoff generator also has us winning a tiebreaker with Tampa.

Born and bred a cheesehead

Zero2Cool
Elite Member Topic Starter

8 years ago

#10

I believe Barfarn is correct. As your spoiler notes, the Packers and Bucs are both 3-2 in the common games:

For what it's worth, CBS lists Green Bay as the current 7 seed, ahead of Tampa on strength of victory.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace

Yahoo playoff generator also has us winning a tiebreaker with Tampa.

Originally Posted by: mi_keys

You use CBS and Yahoo! and I'll raise you NFL.com and FoxSports.com and MMQB.com which have Packers 8th and Buccaneers 7th!!

BUT -- FoxSports and MMQB also have them flipped on their NFL Standings so they are just as freaking confused as me! lol

Your move!! lol

I'm leaning towards the common games thing is an error and it's supposed to slide to the next tie-breaker.

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