sschind
9 years ago

One thing the Packers have been good with is being able to structure salaries. If we were to go after and get Suh, because of his history, I would expect his salary to not be at the level JJ got. But even that Watt was under 5million Cap hit this last year though he does jump up to 21 for 2015. And if they would make this move, it is done to win not the next SB, but the next TWO or three. We have our core signed, Rodgers, Nelson, Cobb (soon), Matthews, Shields, Williams (likely soon) Lacy, Peppers. We don't really have any of that core with contracts expiring the next two seasons, Sitton is probably next after 2016.

I think Peppers could have a tremendous positive impact on Suh. So you do this as a long term commitment not a short term rental, give Suh a deal for at least 5 years with 15M SB, and two years worth of somewhat minimal Salary keeping his cap number around 5 million than with a guaranteed Roster Bonus in 2017 that will boost his cap number, because that is about when Rodgers and Matthew will probably be restructuring their deals so some space will be cleared at that time. Perhaps throw in some potential guarantees for years 4 and on if he keeps his nose clean.

If we were to go after a Dlineman, would you want it to be Suh, or Ngata?

Originally Posted by: PackFanWithTwins 



I agree that the Packers have been pretty good at structuring contracts but I think you are dreaming if you think a guy like Suh would sign for only 15 million guaranteed over a 5 year deal and a somewhat minimal salary for the first 2 years.

Don't get me wrong, we do have the money to go and get him if we want but I don't think it would be without costing us someone else (Cobb, Bulaga, Williams, House? Maybe a combination) in 2015 and certainly in 2016 and beyond. You have a point about Rodgers and maybe Matthews being in a position to restructure by then but you still keep pushing money back hoping the rising cap will allow you to absorb the eventual hit and I think its a very dangerous game to play.

Lacy is up after 2016 also but I think they will give him a new deal after this year. He would be going into the last year of his rookie deal in 2016 and if he continues at this level the Packers would be smart to lock him up rather than risk letting him hit the market in 2017.
texaspackerbacker
9 years ago

Suh is going to get a lot of money guaranteed so that means 5 years of a relatively high pro rated signing bonus cap hit every year. I'd say 6 million per year (assuming 30 million guaranteed which I don't think is out of the question) You are right though, a cap hit of 20 million is probably out of line, I mean that's what he is at now and its why the Lions are in the position theya re with him. It is not inconceivable that a team could bring him in for a relatively cap friendly 2015 because, as I have said before, a lot of high priced free agents sign for small first year salaries because thy get that big bonus check right away. This makes their first year cap hit much smaller than subsequent years when they start making real salaries as well as the bonus hit. They sign him for 2-3 million salary this year and his cap hit is 8 or 9 million. He most likely will make a lot more next year salary wise.

I for one am glad Ted doesn't use large bonuses because that's why we ended up with Peppers this year. I think the Bears would have loved to keep him but his cap hit was 18 million dollars and they couldn't afford that. They cut him and still ended up counting a ton of money against the cap. Back loading contracts along with large bonuses is doubly dangerous because you know the team is going to cut the guy rather than pay him the 20 million his contract calls for in the last two years of his deal so now you have to pay 2 years worth of accelerated SB because you gave him 25 million guaranteed over 5 years but you cut him after 3. You lose 10 million against the cap. Peppers cap hit for 2016 is actually less than it will be for 2015.

If you want your team to go for broke this year then yeah, you could work out a way to get a guy like Suh and he wouldn't cost and arm and a leg (not even a stomped on leg) for one year but next year and the years after its is going to hurt.

Originally Posted by: sschind 



There's a fairly big difference between the high end deal you describe here and the low end deal you say in your other post probably wouldn't be enough. Also, the Peppers deal may be lower in 2016 than in 2015, but both are extremely higher than last season and extremely high in general. I hope they restructure him too and barring that, I would not be extremely shocked if Ted cuts him.

How about this?: Offer Suh something more than Clay Matthews and less than Aaron Rodgers - maybe about halfway in between. Something like $18 million bonus and a 6 year deal - $2m, 5m, 8m, 10m, 13m, 17m, a total of $73 million. Guarantee the first two years for a total of $25 million including the bonus. IMO, the contract would be pretty competitive, and the cap hit would not be too harsh.

I'm not saying it's gonna happen for a variety of reasons - the strongest one that Ted doesn't like to do large bonuses and maximize creative financing - a quality which I don't like.
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