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Offline Rockmolder  
#31 Posted : Tuesday, March 26, 2013 5:34:41 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: doddpower Go to Quoted Post
If Finley would have been cut, they would have likely pursued another via free agency (Dustin Keller, et al.). Best case scenario, those guys would have signed for $4-5 million a year. Rock stated he thinks Keller is better, but that's subjective. He's smaller (6'2), and still not a good blocker. There were/are some other options out there, but the net gain is likely only $2-4 million in savings AT MOST. The $8 million number sounds like a lot, but in order to have any kind of serviceable replacement, the savings would only be a few million for someone that is arguably equally as talented as Finley with "less potential," and that isn't familiar with the Packers system yet. That's assuming they could even sign those players period, or for anything less than $8 million.

I guess I just don't see it as a big of a deal as others. He's likely to be a bit overpaid this year, and will probably be gone next season as Nerd mentioned; either by not having a very good season or breaking out and pricing himself out of Green Bay. As others have mentioned, with Jennings gone there's a reasonable chance he could earn every penny of that $8 million, especially since it's a contract year. If he does have a great season, the money he's getting paid won't be any issue at all. He caught the Packers in a slightly tough spot, and they have to 'eat' $2-3 million for a season and hope he has a great year (which isn't unrealistic, imo).


Fair enough. Keller didn't perform admirably last year, but he has been a more reliable receiver than Finley in the years before that.

I think that, if you sign someone in free agency, there's more than enough time to get familiar with a system. Players change teams in FA all the time and just contnue producing the next year. If a guy can join the Patriots offense as a WR and completely grasp what Josh McDaniels wants to do in one off-season, I reckon a TE could get our offense figured out and produce.

Maybe you can't build up a chemistry between the QB and receiver that fast, but that's not something I've seen progressing that well between Finley and Rodgers, either.

As for the potential part... The man has been with our team since 2008. He can't get over his problems with drops, maturity and consistency. I was a huge fan of his when he joined us and, for a reasonable price, I'd still give him a chance, but at $8 million, I just don't like the investment.

Right now, I'd rather have a reliable option who doesn't have that much potential. A guy like Martellus Bennett would've been a nice, all-round TE, who's averaging $5 million a year. Not a difference maker, but a good, solid player. But maybe that's more of a personel preference than one you can blame Finley for.

That saves you "just" $3 million, but that is money you could've invested in a player like Adrian Wilson, Bernard Pollard, Antwan Barnes, Kenny Phillips, Leon Washington, Chris Canty etc.

Yes, that's easy to say in hindsight, but the combined contribution of a more afforable TE, who can't be that big of a drop-off from Finley, with one of those players would've helped us more than just Finley alone.

Of course, we still have some money free under our cap, so cutting Finley isn't something we have to do, but even if we just saved up that $3 million, I feel like rolling that over to next year or using it to restructure Matthews and front-load his contract some more would've helped us more than holding on to Jermike.

Lastly, I'll leave you with this. Blegh.

Most overvalued tight ends in 2012:

Quote:
2. Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers

2012 Cap Hit: $5.2m
2012 Performance Based Value: $1.0m
Value Differential: -$4.2m

Given that only two players at the position had more drops than Finley’s nine and with his 10.8 yards per catch the lowest of his career, it’s not surprising that he finished the regular season as our 47th-ranked tight end. For a player that offers little in terms of blocking, he has to do better as a receiver to avoid making this list next season, as continued unreliability will have Aaron Rodgers, and maybe the Packers this offseason, looking elsewhere.
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play2win on 3/26/2013(UTC)
Offline play2win  
#32 Posted : Tuesday, March 26, 2013 5:48:05 AM(UTC)
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http://profootballtalk.n...-chemistry-with-rodgers/

http://www.profootballfo...ar-drop-rate-tight-ends/

http://m.bleacherreport....s-dropped-passes-problem

http://sports.yahoo.com/...ason-161614350--nfl.html

Finley's drop rate is increasing since the start of 2011. His TDs are seriously declining, with only 2 in 2012. Ranked #42 out of 62 NFL TEs in 2013...
http://www.foxsportswisc...kers.html?blockID=861209

I'm not seeing his bonus payment and continued employment by the Packers as having value. We should have not paid it and done something better with $8.25M.

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Rockmolder on 3/26/2013(UTC)
Offline Zero2Cool  
#33 Posted : Tuesday, March 26, 2013 5:53:53 AM(UTC)
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Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez had more drops than Finley. And the graphic attached shows that after his injury was healed that he was playing through btw ... he improved quite a bit. Keep in mind, there are no stats to show how he stretched the field and opened up the underneath routes for Randall Cobb and other WR. That's probably why you don't give him proper due in that regard. You don't have a number to tie to it.
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Offline play2win  
#34 Posted : Tuesday, March 26, 2013 6:19:38 AM(UTC)
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We need decoy stats!

We just gave him a $3,000,000 bonus for all of 2 TDs in 2012. He dropped more TD passes than he caught! Ach. I'm done talking about him. I hope like hell he has a great year with the Packers and that his season ends with he and the rest of his Packers teammates hoisting the Lombardi Trophy! I'll gladly eat that crow.

We could have added Dashon Goldson at S with that money. This is a classic example of Ted overvaluing his own players to a fault.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#35 Posted : Tuesday, March 26, 2013 6:29:54 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: play2win Go to Quoted Post
We need decoy stats!

We just gave him a $3,000,000 bonus for all of 2 TDs in 2012. He dropped more TD passes than he caught! Ach. I'm done talking about him. I hope like hell he has a great year with the Packers and that his season ends with he and the rest of his Packers teammates hoisting the Lombardi Trophy! I'll gladly eat that crow.

We could have added Dashon Goldson at S with that money. This is a classic example of Ted overvaluing his own players to a fault.


What statistics do you have to support that Jermichael Finley dropped touchdown catches? can you provide game by game stats to support this claim?


Who's to say Goldson would be any more worth the money than Finley? There's a reason free agents are free agents. But I want the stats on the dropped TD passes. That interests me greatly.

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Offline Rockmolder  
#36 Posted : Tuesday, March 26, 2013 6:46:11 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool Go to Quoted Post
Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez had more drops than Finley. And the graphic attached shows that after his injury was healed that he was playing through btw ... he improved quite a bit. Keep in mind, there are no stats to show how he stretched the field and opened up the underneath routes for Randall Cobb and other WR. That's probably why you don't give him proper due in that regard. You don't have a number to tie to it.


For this statement to make any difference from any other TE in the league, it'd mean he'd have to be double covered or at least have a safety slide over to him.

If that's the big selling point, draft a guy like Chris Gragg on day 3 and we've replaced Finley, already, for less than a million.

Let's not get any stats involved, then.

Did our offence appear to run smoother when Finley was in? Did Finley show his athleticism by grabbing hard to catch balls out of the air? Did he appear to stretch the field moreso than Nelson, Jennings or Jones? Has he been reliable or trustworthy as a receiver, something I want even more out of my TE than my WR?

No, rarely, rarely, not at all...

I'm still not seeing where he's worth that $8,5 million.
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Offline Zero2Cool  
#37 Posted : Tuesday, March 26, 2013 7:23:28 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Rockmolder Go to Quoted Post
For this statement to make any difference from any other TE in the league, it'd mean he'd have to be double covered or at least have a safety slide over to him.

If that's the big selling point, draft a guy like Chris Gragg on day 3 and we've replaced Finley, already, for less than a million.

Let's not get any stats involved, then.

Did our offence appear to run smoother when Finley was in? Did Finley show his athleticism by grabbing hard to catch balls out of the air? Did he appear to stretch the field moreso than Nelson, Jennings or Jones? Has he been reliable or trustworthy as a receiver, something I want even more out of my TE than my WR?

No, rarely, rarely, not at all...

I'm still not seeing where he's worth that $8,5 million.


First, you have a heavy bias against Jermichael Finley over gloves, so your take is quite tainted.
Second, yes, $8.5 is too much for Jermichael Finley, as who said several times, oh, that was me.
Finally, what I am also saying is he's not a pile of garbage like some are insinuating and that he's a complete waste of money and Ted Thompson failed in this regard.


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Rockmolder on 3/26/2013(UTC)
Offline Rockmolder  
#38 Posted : Tuesday, March 26, 2013 7:51:48 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool Go to Quoted Post
First, you have a heavy bias against Jermichael Finley over gloves, so your take is quite tainted.
Second, yes, $8.5 is too much for Jermichael Finley, as who said several times, oh, that was me.
Finally, what I am also saying is he's not a pile of garbage like some are insinuating and that he's a complete waste of money and Ted Thompson failed in this regard.



Not really. It does add to the view that he's immature and irresponsible to a certain degree, though.

Glad we agree about that, because that's all I'm saying, as well. Had we had him at $3-4 million, I'd be happy. Point I'm trying to make is that, with some simple moves, we could've had a player of the same caliber but at half the price. Not as athletic, but a lot more reliable and consistent.
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Offline Zero2Cool  
#39 Posted : Tuesday, March 26, 2013 8:12:23 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Rockmolder Go to Quoted Post
Not really. It does add to the view that he's immature and irresponsible to a certain degree, though.

Glad we agree about that, because that's all I'm saying, as well. Had we had him at $3-4 million, I'd be happy. Point I'm trying to make is that, with some simple moves, we could've had a player of the same caliber but at half the price. Not as athletic, but a lot more reliable and consistent.


I'd have been fine with the Packers going in with Andrew Quarless as the starter ... assuming he's 100% or will be soon.

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Offline play2win  
#40 Posted : Tuesday, March 26, 2013 8:32:51 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool Go to Quoted Post
What statistics do you have to support that Jermichael Finley dropped touchdown catches? can you provide game by game stats to support this claim?


Who's to say Goldson would be any more worth the money than Finley? There's a reason free agents are free agents. But I want the stats on the dropped TD passes. That interests me greatly.


No. I based those comments on what I saw last season. I know what I saw. I know he dropped more than two TDs in 2013. If you think differently, it is your prerogative.

This article and the charts indicate our offense is more efficient when Finley is not on the field: http://www.acmepackingco...finley-green-bay-packers

This shows his targets and drops per game:
http://www.fftoday.com/s...s/2912/Jermichael_Finley

And, this is Bob McGinn, a person who put plenty of work into evaluating Jermichael Finley, with comments from other pro scouts:
http://www.jsonline.com/...y-v081e07-183664521.html

Here, Zero2Cool, my bud... chew on THIS ONE!: Laughing
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/te

Amongst all TEs, Finley only ranks #15 in DYAR, and #18 in DVOA! Unbelievable. Laughing Laughing Laughing
(I laugh because I have no clue what any of that means...)


The whole thing is a value issue, and I think you've already agreed we are on the short end on that one. My opinion is this bonus was money poorly spent, not to mention the year long commitment to him, with a $8.75M cap figure. In essence, we overpaid him greatly, where he would have been hard pressed to get anything close to that in the open market, with his numbers. So, I'm looking at this as akin to a very poor FA signing, by keeping the player on at that figure, rather than outright releasing him.

Again, now all we can do is hope for the best. I don't like what happened there though.

Edited by user Tuesday, March 26, 2013 8:53:40 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Pack93z  
#41 Posted : Tuesday, March 26, 2013 9:33:42 AM(UTC)
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How I truly view this.. this is a bridge type contract.

If Finley plays well this season or not.. I think he will out price himself in Green Bay. Either performance result with probably have him out stretching his long term value for the Packers. He will only be 27... and will be seeking his career payday.

So... the Packers will hope one of the guys on the roster pan out or will inject another player via the draft or UDFA that will bolster the numbers at TE. Williams and Quarless are in the must prove it sector of their career in GB.. or the Packers will force it.

But if the draft falls right.. the Packers land a impact player at Tight end.. I could see the Packers moving Finley in a trade. They have already absorbed his roster bonus.. and he would have a very manageable contract for someone to undertake. I could see someone giving up some value to obtain Finley's potential and talents.. might not be a high round pick but mid round potential for sure.

Either way.. there is little doubt that Finley value ratio favors him currently.. but as Porky noted.. it has no long term impact.

Edited by user Tuesday, March 26, 2013 11:54:11 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Zero2Cool on 3/26/2013(UTC), play2win on 3/26/2013(UTC)
Offline DakotaT  
#42 Posted : Tuesday, March 26, 2013 9:54:47 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool Go to Quoted Post
First, you have a heavy bias against Jermichael Finley over gloves, so your take is quite tainted.
Second, yes, $8.5 is too much for Jermichael Finley, as who said several times, oh, that was me.
Finally, what I am also saying is he's not a pile of garbage like some are insinuating and that he's a complete waste of money and Ted Thompson failed in this regard.



Boy do I miss Tyrone Davis, what a consumate professional he was at tight end. I mean Finley makes Tyrone look like Jerry Rice. Rolling Eyes Sarcasm

When Finley starts catching everything again, and smoking linebackers and safeties we'll be wondering how to get him under the cap.
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Offline Dulak  
#43 Posted : Tuesday, March 26, 2013 11:49:49 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Pack93z Go to Quoted Post
Finley has a issue with a PR filter from his mouth to the mic... but beyond that he is a fine football player for the Packers.

Overpaid.. probably slightly.. but lets compare some names on the market.

Zach Miller.. 11m cap number this season.
Veron Davis 8.739
Heath Miller 7.958
Antonio Gates 6.862
Marcedes Lewis 8.25 (however he converted some of the bonus to reduce the cap number this season to 5.75)


By standard of some of these names.. he isn't that far out of whack on the top end of the market.. even though his production in near the top.


vernon davis makes finley look like a preschooler ... geez that guy has some skills ...
Id say 7 mil is fine for finley - I dont get why packers overpays with some people and others that just dont worry about.

Offline DoddPower  
#44 Posted : Tuesday, March 26, 2013 12:48:45 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Rockmolder Go to Quoted Post
Fair enough. Keller didn't perform admirably last year, but he has been a more reliable receiver than Finley in the years before that.

I think that, if you sign someone in free agency, there's more than enough time to get familiar with a system. Players change teams in FA all the time and just contnue producing the next year. If a guy can join the Patriots offense as a WR and completely grasp what Josh McDaniels wants to do in one off-season, I reckon a TE could get our offense figured out and produce.

Maybe you can't build up a chemistry between the QB and receiver that fast, but that's not something I've seen progressing that well between Finley and Rodgers, either.

As for the potential part... The man has been with our team since 2008. He can't get over his problems with drops, maturity and consistency. I was a huge fan of his when he joined us and, for a reasonable price, I'd still give him a chance, but at $8 million, I just don't like the investment.

Right now, I'd rather have a reliable option who doesn't have that much potential. A guy like Martellus Bennett would've been a nice, all-round TE, who's averaging $5 million a year. Not a difference maker, but a good, solid player. But maybe that's more of a personel preference than one you can blame Finley for.

That saves you "just" $3 million, but that is money you could've invested in a player like Adrian Wilson, Bernard Pollard, Antwan Barnes, Kenny Phillips, Leon Washington, Chris Canty etc.

Yes, that's easy to say in hindsight, but the combined contribution of a more afforable TE, who can't be that big of a drop-off from Finley, with one of those players would've helped us more than just Finley alone.

Of course, we still have some money free under our cap, so cutting Finley isn't something we have to do, but even if we just saved up that $3 million, I feel like rolling that over to next year or using it to restructure Matthews and front-load his contract some more would've helped us more than holding on to Jermike.

Lastly, I'll leave you with this. Blegh.

Most overvalued tight ends in 2012:



I would argue that over the 2nd half of last season, Finley DID become more consistent, and Mike McCarthy praised him on this multiple times. If he maintained that level of play for an entire season, he would earn his salary, imo.

As for those other players you listed that we hypothetically "could" have signed with the $3 million saved by cutting Finley and replacing him with a cheaper option, I don't really buy that either. Based on Ted Thompson comments about teams spending "stupid money," etc., I don't believe Ted would have signed any of those guys regardless of anything to do with Finley. I can't prove that, but it's just the feeling I get from reading his comments. It's definitely not as simple as "If Finley was gone, the Packers could have signed X, Y, or Z." Even with Finley staying, if Ted really wanted one of those guys, I'm sure he would have made it work.

Otherwise, I think Finley is better than Keller and Bennett at this point, but as I said that's subjective. I don't mind keeping Finley as a one-year insurance policy that allows other players to develop as I don't see Finley being a Packer beyond the 2013 season. Worst case scenario, at least the Packers have a good/solid (and potentially better) tight-end for the upcoming season that is perhaps getting paid a couple million too much (but that still depends on his performance, which obviously the Packers think he can live up to). After this season, Finley is off the books and has no affect on any of the Packers decisions moving forward. Another contract year may be just what Finley needs.
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Offline PackerTraxx  
#45 Posted : Tuesday, March 26, 2013 4:40:54 PM(UTC)
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I could see Finley having a very good year, because as mentioned it's his contract year. If he wants to see those big checks keep coming he's going to have to earn it. If he does, we will have gotten our moneys worth. If he doesn't, we over spent for a year, not 3-5 years. I can see this decision.
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