nerdmann
9 years ago

The Stats Lie

Only the 2nd time in NFL history that a game went without a punt.

Packers had seven drives, all of which ended with a score, except the blocked field goal of course.

Packers had the ball for just over 23 minutes.

Packers were out gained on the ground 56 yards to Bears 235 yards.

Bears were 63.6% on 3rd down conversions, Packers were just 50%.

Packers had 21 first downs to the Bears 33.

Packers had 47 plays to Bears 77 plays.


Yet, the Packers crush the Bears 38 to 17. [aiee]

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



That's what turnovers will do. Add in time running out at the end of the half.

Trestman's offense is fundamentally sound. THAT, is what I bitch about all the time with Mike. Mike and Aaron can get away with this stat whoring bullshit, because Aaron is an elite QB. But almost every year in the playoffs, that bullshit comes home to roost.

You do the right thing ALL the time. You play the right way, ALL the time.

Fact is this team has a weakness, and that' the Dline. We all know it, and every week teams all over the league get more and more film of it. We've gotta do something about that. The offense does not appear willing to help the defense by burning clock and keeping them off the field.

We're not gonna be facing bullshit QBs in January.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
9 years ago

Turnovers involve some luck. A stout defensive line that can consistently stop the run doesn't (or at least less luck is involved).

I'm too lazy to look it up, but I don't know that the Packers' SB team allowed many 500+ yard games, and 2011 isn't really a barometer for success because it was the preview to the problem the Packers currently have with teams such as the Seahawks, 49ers, and now maybe even the Lions.

I'm wavering a lot on this defense. Anyone can lay an egg, we saw that with the 49ers at Seattle last November. I certainly don't have much confidence in this defense, but they've been all over the map and I still can't tell if the 2nd half Jets/Detroit defense is what to expect, or if the Bears/Seahawks is more what we should expect with this team.

Originally Posted by: musccy 



Absolutely. CM3s pick was luck on his part. I have said it before I have seen corners beaten or out of position get a pick because the QB was so bad they missed the open receiver by 5 feet or more.
UserPostedImage
DoddPower
9 years ago

Absolutely. CM3s pick was luck on his part. I have said it before I have seen corners beaten or out of position get a pick because the QB was so bad they missed the open receiver by 5 feet or more.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



The actual catch may have involved some luck, but the actual reason for the interception, Tramon Williams play on the ball, was not.
dfosterf
9 years ago
We need better defense, specifically, heat on the QB. We all know it, the rest is wishful thinking. We also know we just need to give Aaron just a little time. It has not been a tough equation, in theory. we need to get there in reality.

musccy
9 years ago

The actual catch may have involved some luck, but the actual reason for the interception, Tramon Williams play on the ball, was not.

Originally Posted by: DoddPower 



Luck may not be the right word. Tramon did make a good play on the ball, but in order for Tramon to make that play, Cutler had to miss that he had inside coverage or throw an errant pass. It's not luck that Cutler threw a bad pass, but we were dependent on his error to enable the opportunity.

I know it's what everyone would say but I want a defense that can contain the edge, play their assignment, get off blocks, clog a gap, etc. not rely on the opponent "shitting themselves" as nerdmann would say.
nerdmann
9 years ago

Luck may not be the right word. Tramon did make a good play on the ball, but in order for Tramon to make that play, Cutler had to miss that he had inside coverage or throw an errant pass. It's not luck that Cutler threw a bad pass, but we were dependent on his error to enable the opportunity.

I know it's what everyone would say but I want a defense that can contain the edge, play their assignment, get off blocks, clog a gap, etc. not rely on the opponent "sh*tting themselves" as nerdmann would say.

Originally Posted by: musccy 



Preparation, meeting opportunity.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
nerdmann
9 years ago

We need better defense, specifically, heat on the QB. We all know it, the rest is wishful thinking. We also know we just need to give Aaron just a little time. It has not been a tough equation, in theory. we need to get there in reality.

Originally Posted by: dfosterf 



Specifically, run defense.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
9 years ago

The actual catch may have involved some luck, but the actual reason for the interception, Tramon Williams play on the ball, was not.

Originally Posted by: DoddPower 



I know that as well as anyone else. Backs do a graet job defending the pass and defect balls all the time. How many tipped/deflected balls are there every week around the NFL? Most fall to the ground. How many tipped balls fly 10-15 yards back towards the LOS that are caught by a LBer? Practically none. The degree of luck on this particular play was over the 75% level.
UserPostedImage
Dexter_Sinister
9 years ago

The Stats Lie

Only the 2nd time in NFL history that a game went without a punt.

Packers had seven drives, all of which ended with a score, except the blocked field goal of course.

Packers had the ball for just over 23 minutes.

Packers were out gained on the ground 56 yards to Bears 235 yards.

Bears were 63.6% on 3rd down conversions, Packers were just 50%.

Packers had 21 first downs to the Bears 33.

Packers had 47 plays to Bears 77 plays.


Yet, the Packers crush the Bears 38 to 17. [aiee]

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 


The numbers don't lie. But people's understanding of what correlates to winning is often flawed.

Per play the Packers were much more efficient. They only needed 47 plays to score 38 points. The Bears needed 77 plays to score 17 points. The Packers yards per play meant they didn't need as many plays to move the ball.

Yards and TOP mean nothing if the drives don't end in a score. Every failed drive, you might as well wipe out the yards and TOP.

The Bears failed to score on 5 of 8 drives. 1 on downs, 2 turnovers on first down and a goal line stop at the end of the half and at the end of the game.

The Packers only failed to convert one drive into points. They attempted 3 field goals and had one that was blocked, one that was a first down by penalty and one that was made. They did have a 3rd down converted by defensive penalty. I don't know how you can call that 4 of 8 on 3rd down. I would call it 5 of 8 or at least 4 of 7.

The whole story can be misrepresented by focusing on the wrong stat or trying to make a stat say something it doesn't. Like saying yards and TOP should lead to wins. They didn't lie. Saying they matter is the lie.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
nerdmann
9 years ago

I know that as well as anyone else. Backs do a graet job defending the pass and defect balls all the time. How many tipped/deflected balls are there every week around the NFL? Most fall to the ground. How many tipped balls fly 10-15 yards back towards the LOS that are caught by a LBer? Practically none. The degree of luck on this particular play was over the 75% level.

Originally Posted by: wpr 



Those are patented moves, though.

Shields and Williams bait those QBs into those throws, then they close on the ball like that. Remember Bush's lifetime highlight INT in the SB? He saw that on film, and exploited it. That ain't luck.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
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Zero2Cool (6h) : Chase Young to sign $13M contract with Saints
Zero2Cool (6h) : Yosh to Panthers what noooo. Wait he didn't do crap
wpr (18-Mar) : I say that he is technically HER BIL as he married her sister. I checked it out, he's considered my BIL as well. Sad.
Mucky Tundra (18-Mar) : wpr, I assume its your BIL via marriage to your wife? If so, I can figure out where the smarts in the family went ;)
wpr (18-Mar) : Mucky my B-I-L is Bare Stupid. I could write a book.
Mucky Tundra (18-Mar) : As a teenager in Rockford IL I would get heckled by adults in public for wearing GB gear
Mucky Tundra (18-Mar) : if you think the online ones are bad, try *living amongst* them
Mucky Tundra (18-Mar) : Never doubt wprs loyalty. Poor guy is surrounded by Bears fans in Northern IL
wpr (17-Mar) : pass Martha. Thanks for the invite though.
Martha Careful (17-Mar) : blog * as the same ugly Illinois colors were adopted by the Baer
Martha Careful (17-Mar) : WPR, perhaps you should be joining the Bears fans blog has the same ugly Illinois colors were adopted by the Bears
Mucky Tundra (17-Mar) : Ah a fellow U of Illinois hater. I can respect that though I imagine it's for different reasons
Zero2Cool (17-Mar) : BTW. I didn't catch the game. I just hate Illinois.
Mucky Tundra (17-Mar) : They're your Big Ten Chumps and you will like it!
Zero2Cool (17-Mar) : No, not for the record. Referee's handled that BS. Orange team was trash ass
Mucky Tundra (17-Mar) : *Your* Big Ten Chumps for the record
Zero2Cool (17-Mar) : No, not Big Ten Champs. IL is big ten CHUMPS
wpr (17-Mar) : Big Ten Champs
wpr (17-Mar) : !!!
wpr (17-Mar) : INI
wpr (17-Mar) : ILL
Martha Careful (17-Mar) : Wisconsin with an outstanding on in the men’s Big Ten basketball tournament. Let’s hope it continues in the NCAAs
Zero2Cool (17-Mar) : Almost like taking QB in 2020 even if you don't need one is good move.
Mucky Tundra (16-Mar) : 2021 QB Draft class looking like a real clunker
Mucky Tundra (16-Mar) : A conditional 6th rounder? I remember Bears fans arguing they'd get a day 2 pick at worst lol
dfosterf (16-Mar) : So I got the no extension part right and the have to wait on the CW physical wrong
Zero2Cool (16-Mar) : Bears are trading Justin Fields for a 2025 6th-round pick that goes to a 4th-round pick based on playtime, per sources.
Zero2Cool (16-Mar) : Former Packer Jarrett Bush opens Wisconsin’s first blow dry bar in Green Bay
dfosterf (16-Mar) : If the Bears are not doing a deal with Washington, they also cannot trade Fields until Williams physical with them. All hail Caleb Williams!
dfosterf (16-Mar) : The talent is undeniable, but the (advertised) haul is obscene.
dfosterf (16-Mar) : If the Bears are cutting a deal with the Commanders, in either scenario, cannot happen until williams passes a Commanders physical
dfosterf (16-Mar) : My guess is no to the Fields extension, but yes to the trade back with the Commanders.
dhazer (15-Mar) : I think the Bears do a Love extension and they will trade out of the 1st pick and take the haul
Martha Careful (15-Mar) : that might make sense
Zero2Cool (15-Mar) : Justin Fields to Steelers?
Zero2Cool (15-Mar) : Kenny Pickett. Eagles. Done.
Zero2Cool (15-Mar) : They can claim best two WR tandem.
Mucky Tundra (15-Mar) : Aaron Donald retiring
dhazer (15-Mar) : Campbell signing with 49ers
dhazer (15-Mar) : I love how the Bear Fans are now claiming they have the best skill players in the NFC North lol
Zero2Cool (15-Mar) : Vikings made a move to get a 2nd first round pick
Mucky Tundra (15-Mar) : That's a not a bad deal for the Bears
Zero2Cool (15-Mar) : Bears have traded for WR Keenan Allen sending Chargers a fourth rounder.
Martha Careful (15-Mar) : *signs
Martha Careful (14-Mar) : MLB Devon White science with the Eagles
Mucky Tundra (14-Mar) : But that was before FA started
Mucky Tundra (14-Mar) : Dhaze, I thought Kurls would be their #1 target when I read that he was an Amos comp (jack of all trades guy)
dhazer (14-Mar) : I would like to see the Packers target 2 more FA still available Kamren Curl Safety and Chase Young edge
Martha Careful (14-Mar) : wow...didn't see that coming
Zero2Cool (14-Mar) : AJ Dillon re-signing with Packers.
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