Poll Question: Both statements are false. But which is a *worse* error?

Total: 6

Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
10 years ago
Sigh.

# of terrorists in the world? Perhaps a few hundreds of thousands. Probably at least an order of magnitude less.

# of Muslims in the world? Over 2 billion.

% of world Muslims that would be (mistakenly) adjudged terrorists under first statement: between 1/100th of 1% and 1/1000th of 1%.

% of world Muslims that would be (mistakenly) adjudged terrorists under second statement: 100%.

Why did I post this poll? Why did I put this on a test? Because it points out the particular ill of quantitative illiteracy. These are not equivalent errors.

Both statements justify bigotry and are used to justify bigotry-inspired actions. Both therefore both are "bad". Conceded.

But when we act upon the second belief, the scale of our bigotry (and the scale of the actions we would likely take because of our bigotry) increases by between 4 and 5 orders of magnitude.

Wayne, the point is not that the "smaller" wrong of the first belief is "right." The point is that a wrong of the second type effectively allows repetition of each of the first wrongs by 10,000 to 100,000 times. And that, IMNSHO, is a bigger wrong.

And, no, tex, I do not believe that most of those 2 billion Muslims are sympathetic toward terrorism, either. Any more than I believe that most of today's Christians would be sympathetic to another Crusade.


And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
10 years ago

Sigh.


Wayne, the point is not that the "smaller" wrong of the first belief is "right." The point is that a wrong of the second type effectively allows repetition of each of the first wrongs by 10,000 to 100,000 times. And that, IMNSHO, is a bigger wrong.

Originally Posted by: wade 



Wade I knew what you were looking for. I didn't want to play under such narrow constraints. I chose not to quantify the wrong but to simply state both are wrong. And as such because one is smaller doesn't make it better.

It reminds me of the story of the guy who baked two pans of brownies. He put a half cup of draino in one batch and a teaspoon of rattlesnake venom in the other. Which one would you want to eat?

Trying to chose the lesser of two evils is why the world is the way it is today. Instead of choosing the smaller wrong I say let's throw both out and chose that which is right instead.

Yes I am being a pain in the rear. I can live with it.
UserPostedImage
texaspackerbacker
10 years ago

Sigh.

# of terrorists in the world? Perhaps a few hundreds of thousands. Probably at least an order of magnitude less.

# of Muslims in the world? Over 2 billion.

% of world Muslims that would be (mistakenly) adjudged terrorists under first statement: between 1/100th of 1% and 1/1000th of 1%.

% of world Muslims that would be (mistakenly) adjudged terrorists under second statement: 100%.

Why did I post this poll? Why did I put this on a test? Because it points out the particular ill of quantitative illiteracy. These are not equivalent errors.

Both statements justify bigotry and are used to justify bigotry-inspired actions. Both therefore both are "bad". Conceded.

But when we act upon the second belief, the scale of our bigotry (and the scale of the actions we would likely take because of our bigotry) increases by between 4 and 5 orders of magnitude.

Wayne, the point is not that the "smaller" wrong of the first belief is "right." The point is that a wrong of the second type effectively allows repetition of each of the first wrongs by 10,000 to 100,000 times. And that, IMNSHO, is a bigger wrong.

And, no, tex, I do not believe that most of those 2 billion Muslims are sympathetic toward terrorism, either. Any more than I believe that most of today's Christians would be sympathetic to another Crusade.

Originally Posted by: wade 



Wade, you throw around words like bigotry; Is it bigotry in your eyes if the negativity or prejudice is valid and fact-based? It seems that most of your conclusions and statements are based on your own preconceived notions regarding Muslims. You talk about "equivalent errors" when in fact, it is your own unwarranted assumption that there is even an error.

As I stated previously, the more pertinent numbers and polling would be NOT the admittedly small number of actual perpetrators of acts of terrorism, but the SYMPATHIZERS and Supporters of those perpetrators of acts of terror. I would liken this to an analysis of the population of Wisconsin and the Packers. Obviously, only 53 out of 4 million or whatever actually play football for the Packers. However, the huge huge majority sympathize with and support the 53 actual players. You can justifably conclude that Wisconsin has a Packer supporting population. The percentages are very similar to the percentages with Muslims. Thus, it is very justified to conclude that Muslims are a terrorist sympathizing population. You may not believe it Wade, but the news, recent history, basically THE FACTS say you SHOULD believe it.

I, for one, would be up for a good Crusade hahaha. I bet each new example of Muslim behavior and attitude in the world brings a bigger and bigger percentage of Christians who would agree. Even without considering weapon superiority, throw in a billion or so Muslim-hating Hindus in India, and the numbers look pretty good. Of course, we would never start anything hahaha, but if they want JIHAD, I say BRING IT ON!
Expressing the Good Normal Views of Good Normal Americans.
If Anything I Say Smacks of Extremism, Please Tell Me EXACTLY What.
DakotaT
10 years ago
Texas, It's people like you that keep the bombs and bullets flying throughout the world. You're just simply a dumbass, with all do respect of course.

Been working seven 12's lately. I'm way too tired and grouchy to give you boys the right answers, pun intended.
UserPostedImage
texaspackerbacker
10 years ago

Texas, It's people like you that keep the bombs and bullets flying throughout the world. You're just simply a dumbass, with all do respect of course.

Been working seven 12's lately. I'm way too tired and grouchy to give you boys the right answers, pun intended.

Originally Posted by: DakotaT 



I was wondering where you were hahaha. I hope you gave the IRS their share hahahaha.

And it's like you to go AGAINST America and side with whatever group of barbaric shitheads sets themselves up as our enemy this decade. A little question for you guys who like damn Muslims so much: WHY are damn Muslims the enemy of America? The answer is ............... because the God damned Muslims SAY they are our enemy. I didn't make any "bullets go flying around the world" - whatever the hell that even means hahahaha. America didn't say "hey, enough of this bogus shitty excuse of a religion, let's have a jihad against it". Nope. It was the God damned Muslims themselves who declared themselves to be the enemy of America - against freedom and democracy, against Judeo-Christian civilization, against the whole western civilized world for that matter - not to mention against Hindus - basically anybody less backward and barbarous than themselves. Hell, they even make enemies of different branches of themselves - talk about letting bullets and bombs fly around hahahahaha.
Expressing the Good Normal Views of Good Normal Americans.
If Anything I Say Smacks of Extremism, Please Tell Me EXACTLY What.
Rockmolder
10 years ago

I was wondering where you were hahaha. I hope you gave the IRS their share hahahaha.

And it's like you to go AGAINST America and side with whatever group of barbaric shitheads sets themselves up as our enemy this decade. A little question for you guys who like damn Muslims so much: WHY are damn Muslims the enemy of America? The answer is ............... because the God damned Muslims SAY they are our enemy. I didn't make any "bullets go flying around the world" - whatever the hell that even means hahahaha. America didn't say "hey, enough of this bogus shitty excuse of a religion, let's have a jihad against it". Nope. It was the God damned Muslims themselves who declared themselves to be the enemy of America - against freedom and democracy, against Judeo-Christian civilization, against the whole western civilized world for that matter - not to mention against Hindus - basically anybody less backward and barbarous than themselves. Hell, they even make enemies of different branches of themselves - talk about letting bullets and bombs fly around hahahahaha.

Originally Posted by: texaspackerbacker 



Except it was the terrorists who do this and you just pull in the entire Muslim community.

Are Christians all semi-terrorists because the Westboro Baptist Church exists?
Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
10 years ago

Wade, you throw around words like bigotry; Is it bigotry in your eyes if the negativity or prejudice is valid and fact-based? It seems that most of your conclusions and statements are based on your own preconceived notions regarding Muslims. You talk about "equivalent errors" when in fact, it is your own unwarranted assumption that there is even an error.

As I stated previously, the more pertinent numbers and polling would be NOT the admittedly small number of actual perpetrators of acts of terrorism, but the SYMPATHIZERS and Supporters of those perpetrators of acts of terror. I would liken this to an analysis of the population of Wisconsin and the Packers. Obviously, only 53 out of 4 million or whatever actually play football for the Packers. However, the huge huge majority sympathize with and support the 53 actual players. You can justifably conclude that Wisconsin has a Packer supporting population. The percentages are very similar to the percentages with Muslims. Thus, it is very justified to conclude that Muslims are a terrorist sympathizing population. You may not believe it Wade, but the news, recent history, basically THE FACTS say you SHOULD believe it.

I, for one, would be up for a good Crusade hahaha. I bet each new example of Muslim behavior and attitude in the world brings a bigger and bigger percentage of Christians who would agree. Even without considering weapon superiority, throw in a billion or so Muslim-hating Hindus in India, and the numbers look pretty good. Of course, we would never start anything hahaha, but if they want JIHAD, I say BRING IT ON!

Originally Posted by: texaspackerbacker 



1. You *trust* the news for your information? Seriously?? I discovered long ago that the news is no more trustworthy than the average political ad. Which is to say, not at all.

2. Billions of haters? Truly? Have you ever seen a billion people act in hate all at once? Seriously? About the biggest crowds I have ever seen are crowds in St. Peter's Square, and those are on the order of a million at a time. A billion is 1000 times as big as a million, guy. A 1000 times as big.

We all must generalize from sample evidence. But I'm too much a believer in individual choice to believe that billions of people will all individually choose to hate in that way. Be ignorant? Sure. Be complacent in avoiding the evil in their midst? Sure, that, too. But neither ignorance nor complacence are the prerogative of Muslims.

Sure, every act of hate coming from Muslim makes it easier for a Christian to go all Old Testament. But incitement to hate is not, and never will be, a justification for hate.

Merely another occasion to turn the other cheek.

IMO, there are few things more non-Christian than war in the name of religion. Even in the name of ours.

No, especially in the name of ours. The poor damned Muslims after all are stuck with Mohammed as their greatest teacher; and as long as they are, they will be stuck in their ignorance, stuck in their conformity to the human world.

We Christians have no such excuse.






And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
texaspackerbacker
10 years ago

Except it was the terrorists who do this and you just pull in the entire Muslim community.

Are Christians all semi-terrorists because the Westboro Baptist Church exists?

Originally Posted by: Rockmolder 



I'm not familiar with Westboro Baptist Church, but it sounds like a nice little country place with a sweet-sounding choir.

As I said previously, Rockmolder, the actual perpetrators of terrorist acts are to the Muslim population approximately what the 53 members of the Packers are to the 4 million or so residents of Wisconsin. However, in BOTH cases, it is more than valid to say the HUGE HUGE HUGE majority of each population SUPPORTS/ENTHUSIASTICALLY SYMPATHIZES with the actual doers of the deeds. Therefore, you can call Wisconsin a Packer Nation and Muslims a Terrorist Nation. Does the same apply to your Westboro analogy?


Expressing the Good Normal Views of Good Normal Americans.
If Anything I Say Smacks of Extremism, Please Tell Me EXACTLY What.
texaspackerbacker
10 years ago

1. You *trust* the news for your information? Seriously?? I discovered long ago that the news is no more trustworthy than the average political ad. Which is to say, not at all.

2. Billions of haters? Truly? Have you ever seen a billion people act in hate all at once? Seriously? About the biggest crowds I have ever seen are crowds in St. Peter's Square, and those are on the order of a million at a time. A billion is 1000 times as big as a million, guy. A 1000 times as big.

We all must generalize from sample evidence. But I'm too much a believer in individual choice to believe that billions of people will all individually choose to hate in that way. Be ignorant? Sure. Be complacent in avoiding the evil in their midst? Sure, that, too. But neither ignorance nor complacence are the prerogative of Muslims.

Sure, every act of hate coming from Muslim makes it easier for a Christian to go all Old Testament. But incitement to hate is not, and never will be, a justification for hate.

Merely another occasion to turn the other cheek.

IMO, there are few things more non-Christian than war in the name of religion. Even in the name of ours.

No, especially in the name of ours. The poor damned Muslims after all are stuck with Mohammed as their greatest teacher; and as long as they are, they will be stuck in their ignorance, stuck in their conformity to the human world.

We Christians have no such excuse.

Originally Posted by: wade 



1. Are you seriously saying you don't BELIEVE the Boston Marathon incident happened? Or the soldier hacked to death in the streets of London? Or 9/11? Or Muslim acts of terrorism too numerous to mention?

2. Whatever the total number of Muslims worldwide is - I've read 600 million and 1.5 billion, it is beyond dispute that the vast majority of them have as a matter of course, set themselves up as the enemy of America - sympathizing/empathizing with the actual perpetrators of the terrorist acts. It's simply their way of life - which is why I refer to them as barbarous and backward. Nobody said anything about billions all congregating in one place for a big hate convention hahaha.

Muslims and individual choice hahahaha - that's the stuff oxymorons are made of. You start having individualized thoughts, much less expressing them in the Muslim world and you're lucky if you just lose body parts - can you say barbarism/backward?

I assume the last part of your reply was basically a Jesus v. Mohammed comparison. The Bible, however - the New Testament - refers to Jesus returning and vanquishing the enemies rather violently. And "going Old Testament" is not an invalid thing either if the enemy makes it necessary.

You do a good job of trying to apply transference to the discussion, but this isn't about Christians. We aren't out there committing almost daily acts of terrorism, and more importantly, we did not set up ourselves as the enemy of another rather large group of people. Most Christians probably are like you, and in fact do turn the other cheek. Even the Crusader assholes such as myself tend to think positive toward individuals of the Muslim persuasion, at least until demonstrated otherwise. It ain't that way among Muslims, however. Among them, the percentages are essentially reversed - only a tiny tiny number of nice people like you, and a huge percentage of zealots who support the terrorists just like we support the Packers.


Expressing the Good Normal Views of Good Normal Americans.
If Anything I Say Smacks of Extremism, Please Tell Me EXACTLY What.
Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
10 years ago

1. Are you seriously saying you don't BELIEVE the Boston Marathon incident happened? Or the soldier hacked to death in the streets of London? Or 9/11? Or Muslim acts of terrorism too numerous to mention?

Originally Posted by: texaspackerbacker 



This is *exactly* the point of the original post. To generalize from a few hundred incidents to a blanket statement about billions of people is *FUCKING SHODDY QUANTITATIVE THINKING*.


2. Whatever the total number of Muslims worldwide is - I've read 600 million and 1.5 billion, it is beyond dispute that the vast majority of them have as a matter of course, set themselves up as the enemy of America - sympathizing/empathizing with the actual perpetrators of the terrorist acts. It's simply their way of life - which is why I refer to them as barbarous and backward. Nobody said anything about billions all congregating in one place for a big hate convention hahaha.

Muslims and individual choice hahahaha - that's the stuff oxymorons are made of. You start having individualized thoughts, much less expressing them in the Muslim world and you're lucky if you just lose body parts - can you say barbarism/backward?



So you are saying that Muslims located in Texas or Iowa or New York or Seattle or a hundred thousand other places in the world have to worry about losing body parts? Good grief.

The point is, again, that when you make blanket statements like "it's their way of life", you aren't just lumping the whackos of Al-Queda, Iran, etc. together, you're lumping them with hundreds of millions of people who aren't located in any of those places.

How many Muslims live in the United States? Somewhere between 5 and 8 million. If you truly think that they all celebrate or even "sympathize" with terrorists, you are profoundly ignorant.

I'm not a fan of the Muslim religion. I'm a fundie Christian, after all. I don't think all religions are equivalent. I think some of Mohammed's teachings are whacked. Mohammed to me was just a man. Jesus to me *is* more than a man.

But the fact that Muslims follow Mohammed doesn't make them terrorists, or even whacked. People are more complex than that.




I assume the last part of your reply was basically a Jesus v. Mohammed comparison. The Bible, however - the New Testament - refers to Jesus returning and vanquishing the enemies rather violently. And "going Old Testament" is not an invalid thing either if the enemy makes it necessary.



Ah, but that's Jesus's job, not ours. We aren't the ones who are going to be on the throne doing the vanquishing. He is.

And if He thinks we think ourselves superior enough to do His job, there's a good chance He might vanquish us right along with them.

And every time we say "the enemy makes it necessary", The Enemy cheers us closer to the precipice.

Demonizing a quarter to a third of the world's population is not a recipe for solving problems. Demonizing 3-5% of the nation's population is not a recipe for social order. Demonizing that many people just makes the real bastards the winners.

Frankly, if Americans were as serious about terrorism as we claim to be, we'd stop worrying about whether that swarthy bearded fellow next to us in the airport lounge is a terrorist or not and yammering about how the TSA "protects us" and how "air travel is a privilege", and we'd take all that imperial power at our fingertips and seriously hammer the states that sponsor terrorism.

The states that hide behind their Islam and do everything they can to convince people like you that the problem is Islam when all it is barbarism.



You do a good job of trying to apply transference to the discussion, but this isn't about Christians. We aren't out there committing almost daily acts of terrorism, and more importantly, we did not set up ourselves as the enemy of another rather large group of people. Most Christians probably are like you, and in fact do turn the other cheek. Even the Crusader assholes such as myself tend to think positive toward individuals of the Muslim persuasion, at least until demonstrated otherwise. It ain't that way among Muslims, however. Among them, the percentages are essentially reversed - only a tiny tiny number of nice people like you, and a huge percentage of zealots who support the terrorists just like we support the Packers.



There are daily acts of lots of horrible things. In a world of several billion people, there are going to be. That doesn't make everyone horrible.

I thank you for again illustrating the point of my original post: when we make broad claims about "everyone" or "almost all" or whatever, we're making really big empirical claims. And we're making them based on small samples that tend to many, many principles of careful empirical thinking.

And, IMO, in so doing, we are committing some of the very idolatry -- namely, the idolatry of our own "human" powers of reason -- that Jesus warns us against again and again. We're claiming to be able to know more about our fellow human beings, and the quality of their sinfulness, than we have the ability to know.

And, after all, isn't that where bigotry comes from in the end? Our ignorance of the degree of our own ignorance?

I'm not sure what you mean by "transference" here. But how is the Christian's belief *not* about that Christian? Recall Romans 12. Which is more important for us? Asserting moral superiority over those who throw bombs? Deciding who should be our enemy? Applying judgmental labels to billions of people we have never met or had a chance to have a single internet exchange with?

Or is it something else?

Is this *fair*? I don't know. Is this holding Christians to a higher standard? Damn straight it is.

IMO, a central "fact" of my Christian belief is my personal recognition that I am far, far, closer to those I would label barbarians than I am to Jesus, and that means I should be worrying about them far less and the state of my own soul far more.

Maybe the percentage of "evil Muslims" is greater than the percentage of "evil Christians." But the reality is that man is not doomed to hell because he is evil, but because he is fallen, because in the sin of his self-idolatry he assumes he can determine what only God can determine.

And, IMO, dealing with our fallenness is far, far more important than dealing with evil. The point of turning the other cheek (which, alas, I'm pretty damn bad at) is not to assume responsibility for the blow that is about to hit it. The point of turning the other cheek is to help remember that *the other guy* is never my biggest enemy.









And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
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