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Offline QCHuskerFan  
#16 Posted : Monday, February 11, 2013 12:56:06 PM(UTC)
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My reasoning for not taking a RB in the first round is you can't afford to miss in the 1st and your pick not to be a long term asset. RB's have a short shelf life. Odds are most will never see the end of their first contract and a 1st rd pick has a big contract.

Most Packer fans believe this season might have ended differently if the Packers had another stud OLineman and DLineman. Well, we did have them on the Salary schedule. Their names were Harrell and Sherrod. They ate over 2M of CAP and didn't play a down. Ted Thompson drafted exactly what we needed. Just not who we needed. Imagine if they had become the players they were picked to be?

The draft is enough of a crap shoot. Let's not waste a high pick on a player that has a short expectancy.

Just my 1.3 cents.
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Offline wpr  
#17 Posted : Monday, February 11, 2013 1:04:24 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: QCHuskerFan Go to Quoted Post
My reasoning for not taking a RB in the first round is you can't afford to miss in the 1st and your pick not to be a long term asset. RB's have a short shelf life. Odds are most will never see the end of their first contract and a 1st rd pick has a big contract.

Most Packer fans believe this season might have ended differently if the Packers had another stud OLineman and DLineman. Well, we did have them on the Salary schedule. Their names were Harrell and Sherrod. They ate over 2M of CAP and didn't play a down. Ted Thompson drafted exactly what we needed. Just not who we needed. Imagine if they had become the players they were picked to be?

The draft is enough of a crap shoot. Let's not waste a high pick on a player that has a short expectancy.

Just my 1.3 cents.


yep. couple that with this year's draft being a relatively weak one. (according so some "experts".) you want to make the most of the picks.
"You don't hurt 'em if you don't hit 'em." Chesty Puller



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Offline JustJeff  
#18 Posted : Monday, February 11, 2013 1:21:57 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: QCHuskerFan Go to Quoted Post

Most Packer fans believe this season might have ended differently if the Packers had another stud OLineman and DLineman. Well, we did have them on the Salary schedule. Their names were Harrell and Sherrod.

Sherrod was $1.5 million (and thankfully still on the roster), but we settled the books on Harrell in 2011.

Nick Collins was $2.3 million of dead cap in 2012. The other dead money hits were small (Pro-rated modest signing bonuses for guys like Datko, Coleman, Smithson and Guy). They totaled out around $100k
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Offline steveishere  
#19 Posted : Monday, February 11, 2013 1:42:10 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: QCHuskerFan Go to Quoted Post
My reasoning for not taking a RB in the first round is you can't afford to miss in the 1st and your pick not to be a long term asset. RB's have a short shelf life. Odds are most will never see the end of their first contract and a 1st rd pick has a big contract.

Most Packer fans believe this season might have ended differently if the Packers had another stud OLineman and DLineman. Well, we did have them on the Salary schedule. Their names were Harrell and Sherrod. They ate over 2M of CAP and didn't play a down. Ted Thompson drafted exactly what we needed. Just not who we needed. Imagine if they had become the players they were picked to be?

The draft is enough of a crap shoot. Let's not waste a high pick on a player that has a short expectancy.

Just my 1.3 cents.


The shelf life thing doesn't really mean much to me. It seems that most good RB start declining around 30 which say you draft a guy around 22 or so gives you about 8 years with him which is well beyond the first contract. If they don't see the end of their 1st contract it's usually because they aren't a good player not because they wore out or something. The 1st round contracts aren't really a big deal anymore either since the rookie wage scale.

A similarly skilled lineman or DB will no doubt take priority over a RB but it isn't a waste to take a RB in the 1st round if he's the best guy on the board and can help the team win.
Offline wpr  
#20 Posted : Monday, February 11, 2013 2:15:02 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: JustJeff Go to Quoted Post
DuJuan Harris – I’m excited about Harris. He was our most productive back. He’s quick… plenty fast… good hands… solid blocker… good vision… very decisive… He’s everything Thompson hoped Brandon Jackson would be when he drafted him. His body of work is a small sample size, but he’s currently the default starter, and isn’t a bad option there.

Brandon Saine – the crazy speed makes him tempting.


Alex Green – speaking of B-Jax, Green must have trained with him in the offseason. Green has limited vision and even less patience. He got more carries than anyone and rewarded us with a team low 3.4 per carry. He seems to still think that he can outrun the defense to the edge. He did outrun some players, our O-linemen. I don’t even know if he understands how cutback lanes form in an outside zone run.

James Starks – When has he played an injury free season? He was hurt his final season in college and hasn’t been healthy a full season with us. He runs far too upright, so even when guys only get a hand on him, he gets spun and turned more than he would if he played with better pad level. I think he will always battle injuries.

Cedric Benson – He had 71 carries for us (a 3.5 per carry average) and might have run three stretch plays. He doesn’t have the speed to threaten the front side on a stretch, so we ran him a steady diet of inside zone plays. When the defense knows you’re going to run between the tackles, they’re going to be waiting for you. He was done before the lisfranc injury. Now he’s well-done.

Ryan Grant – I’m a huge Grant fan. He had the second highest ypc on the team, making the most of limited opportunities. He would be a better option than Benson, but sadly, he’s done too.

John Kuhn – you gotta love the guy… just not $2.5 million worth. We run TEs in the backfield. Kuhn represents replaceable production. He’s a fan favorite, but I can give you 1.75 million reasons to kill the final year of his deal.

Mike Shanahan - whom I don't care for at all - has a knack for finding backs. I'll let you in on his secret… the rollover in his backfield. He brings in about seven new backs a year. A few stick, rarely more than a year, but when you get an extended look at 20 backs in three years, you find a back like Alfred Morris.

Running back value in the draft…
Lacy looks like Ingram lite to me. I wouldn’t spend a first on him.

Giovani Bernard (UNC) would be intriguing if he lasted till our second round pick.

I think the value at RB shows up around the fourth round… where guys like Bell, Stepfan Taylor of Stanford, Mike Gillislee of and Kenjon Barner of Oregon are likely to be in-play.

As for the accompanying O-line discussion, my first round wishlist is primarily on the defensive side of the ball. There’s only one player on the offensive side of the ball with a chance of being there at #26 that I would take. Sorry Barrett Jones fans. Jones is versatile. He could bail you out of a game at tackle, but he’s no more a tackle than TJ Lang. I think Jones is more guard than center. He wouldn’t be an awful pick, but I would be disappointed. I think Jones will be solid player/starter for years. My concern is that he’s an AJ Hawk type, in that he wouldn’t disappoint, but always has you wishing there was more to him. I just don’t see the upside.


Harris- I am not totally sold on him yet. Too small of a sample size to feel comfortable. He may be all of that and then some but I have not seen enough yet.

Saine- speed is not everything in a running back. It is a lot but not everything. Saine sort of reminds me of a cartoon I saw years ago. The cartoonist had the running back streaking across the page. He was just a blur. His run ended when he ran right into the mid section to the LB who was just standing there with his hands on his hips unaffected by the collision.

Green and Starks should be able to do more than what they have shown so far. maybe this year we will see them bloom. If not relegate them to the bottom of the depth chart to fill in when injuries occur.

Benson, Grant- gone.

KUHHHHHN- makes one more return. He has been a reliable. Does a little of everything including ST. I think he has been more effective as a lead blocker than the TEs.

I do like Jones but only as a C (back up at G) and only in the 2-3 rounds or later.
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thanks Post received 1 applause.
JustJeff on 2/11/2013(UTC)
Offline Yerko  
#21 Posted : Monday, February 11, 2013 2:40:51 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: QCHuskerFan Go to Quoted Post
My reasoning for not taking a RB in the first round is you can't afford to miss in the 1st and your pick not to be a long term asset. RB's have a short shelf life. Odds are most will never see the end of their first contract and a 1st rd pick has a big contract.

Most Packer fans believe this season might have ended differently if the Packers had another stud OLineman and DLineman. Well, we did have them on the Salary schedule. Their names were Harrell and Sherrod. They ate over 2M of CAP and didn't play a down. Ted Thompson drafted exactly what we needed. Just not who we needed. Imagine if they had become the players they were picked to be?

The draft is enough of a crap shoot. Let's not waste a high pick on a player that has a short expectancy.

Just my 1.3 cents.


My counter to that is a runningback on the Packers would have a longer shelf life than a runningback on, lets say...the Browns.
A guy like Lacy would be worth it with what he would do on our offense. Its not like he would be coming onto a team that is going to rely on him (like his old teammate, Trent Richardson).

Let's say Lacy is available at 26.

Joeckel (OT)
Fisher (OT)
Lutelelie (DT)
Richardson (DT)
Hankins (DT)
Warmack (OG)
Ansah (DE)
Short (DT)
Jenkins (DT)
...are all taken before 26. Do you just ignore the stud runningback sitting there at 26 and trade down, hoping that a 2nd tier lineman such as Lane Johnson (OT), Jonathan Cooper (OG), or Sherrif Floyd (DT) fall that late in the 2nd or 3rd?

Imo, I would not pass up a blue chip runningback like Lacy and go into next season complaining about the lack of the Packers running game. Lacy is a reason to make McCarthy stick to the run game...
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Offline JustJeff  
#22 Posted : Monday, February 11, 2013 2:48:00 PM(UTC)
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Barring some sort of outrageous slide, Jonathan Cooper is the only offensive player I would take in the first round.
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Offline DakotaT  
#23 Posted : Monday, February 11, 2013 2:48:40 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Yerko Go to Quoted Post
My counter to that is a runningback on the Packers would have a longer shelf life than a runningback on, lets say...the Browns.
A guy like Lacy would be worth it with what he would do on our offense. Its not like he would be coming onto a team that is going to rely on him (like his old teammate, Trent Richardson).

Let's say Lacy is available at 26.

Joeckel (OT)
Fisher (OT)
Lutelelie (DT)
Richardson (DT)
Hankins (DT)
Warmack (OG)
Ansah (DE)
Short (DT)
Jenkins (DT)
...are all taken before 26. Do you just ignore the stud runningback sitting there at 26 and trade down, hoping that a 2nd tier lineman such as Lane Johnson (OT), Jonathan Cooper (OG), or Sherrif Floyd (DT) fall that late in the 2nd or 3rd?

Imo, I would not pass up a blue chip runningback like Lacy and go into next season complaining about the lack of the Packers running game. Lacy is a reason to make McCarthy stick to the run game...


I have a hard time arguing with this logic Yerko - and I wouldn't mind having more talent in the backfield.
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Offline QCHuskerFan  
#24 Posted : Tuesday, February 12, 2013 11:00:26 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: steveishere Go to Quoted Post
The shelf life thing doesn't really mean much to me. It seems that most good RB start declining around 30 which say you draft a guy around 22 or so gives you about 8 years with him which is well beyond the first contract. If they don't see the end of their 1st contract it's usually because they aren't a good player not because they wore out or something. The 1st round contracts aren't really a big deal anymore either since the rookie wage scale.

A similarly skilled lineman or DB will no doubt take priority over a RB but it isn't a waste to take a RB in the 1st round if he's the best guy on the board and can help the team win.


2008 NFL 1st Rd picks
Oakland- McFadden decent back but has never played a full season
Panthers- Stewart 19 games started after 5 years in league, missed 7 games in 2012
Dallas- Jones 23 games started in 5 years, 545 yards/ yr avg
Steelers- Mendenhall good years 2,3,4 then blew knee and limited effectiveness part time in 2012
Titans- Chris Johnson- GREAT, durable back!!!

2009 NFL 1st Rd RB picks
Denver- Knowshon Moreno Has played 15 games in the last 2 years after a good first 2. Worn out?
Colts- Donald Brown- 1,840 yards rushing after 4 years, 15 starts in 4 years
Cardinals- Beanie Wells- 2,471 yards after 4 years, only 8 games in 2012

2010 NFL 1st Rd picks
Buffalo- CJ Spiller 2012 was great, but only ran for 844 yards in first 2 years, not impact
Chargers- Ryan Matthews hasn't played a full season yet
Lions- Jahvid Best 16 games in 2010, 6 in 2011, 0 in 2012, is he done?

Of the 11 RB's drafted in Rd 1 that would be entering their 3,4 or 5th year, I believe only 2 played a full season in 2012.

In the league's top 20 rushers in 2012, there are only 2 over 27. Neither were 30 yet, but both (Frank Gore and Stephen Jackson) will be before 2013. Good running backs don't start declining around 30. Only great ones even make it near 30. Good backs are declining the day they are drafted.
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thanks Post received 2 applause.
wpr on 2/12/2013(UTC), JustJeff on 2/13/2013(UTC)
Offline QCHuskerFan  
#25 Posted : Tuesday, February 12, 2013 11:06:36 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: JustJeff Go to Quoted Post
Sherrod was $1.5 million (and thankfully still on the roster), but we settled the books on Harrell in 2011.

Nick Collins was $2.3 million of dead cap in 2012. The other dead money hits were small (Pro-rated modest signing bonuses for guys like Datko, Coleman, Smithson and Guy). They totaled out around $100k


JSOnline showed Harrell for $500k in 2012 CAP money. Either way, my point about the right positions being drafted is valid. If those 2 had come to fruition, what if...
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Offline QCHuskerFan  
#26 Posted : Tuesday, February 12, 2013 11:13:33 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Yerko Go to Quoted Post
My counter to that is a runningback on the Packers would have a longer shelf life than a runningback on, lets say...the Browns.
A guy like Lacy would be worth it with what he would do on our offense. Its not like he would be coming onto a team that is going to rely on him (like his old teammate, Trent Richardson).

Let's say Lacy is available at 26.

Joeckel (OT)
Fisher (OT)
Lutelelie (DT)
Richardson (DT)
Hankins (DT)
Warmack (OG)
Ansah (DE)
Short (DT)
Jenkins (DT)
...are all taken before 26. Do you just ignore the stud runningback sitting there at 26 and trade down, hoping that a 2nd tier lineman such as Lane Johnson (OT), Jonathan Cooper (OG), or Sherrif Floyd (DT) fall that late in the 2nd or 3rd?

Imo, I would not pass up a blue chip runningback like Lacy and go into next season complaining about the lack of the Packers running game. Lacy is a reason to make McCarthy stick to the run game...


I won't complain if the Packers running game is not better next year. I will complain if the DL doesn't do a better job of controlling the LOS. That's my hot button.

And, yes, I ignore Lacy at 26.
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wpr on 2/12/2013(UTC)
Offline PackerTraxx  
#27 Posted : Tuesday, February 12, 2013 12:09:33 PM(UTC)
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It would take some wheeling and dealing but I would love to see us end up with:

Margus Hunt, extremely low amount of experience but freakish athletic, high upside
William Gholston, could contribute very soon
This would give us two big ends for our 3-4.

Barrett Jones, would upgrade a position that is under rated, I think it would really help us and give us flexibility in case of injury.

Of course, with the info that is out there and our limited knowledge vs the coaches and Ted Thompson this is all assuming these players will be upgrades/good. This is also hoping that Bulaga and Sherrod can come back healthy and play well.

Frosting on the cake would be a sleeper receiver, safety and running back. There, now we're set!LOL
Why is Jerry Kramer not in the Hall of Fame?
Offline wpr  
#28 Posted : Tuesday, February 12, 2013 12:16:28 PM(UTC)
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good job in your summary QC Applause

the days of spending a #1 for a rb are long over. (of course there are a few exceptions to the rule.)
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Offline porky88  
#29 Posted : Tuesday, February 12, 2013 6:14:28 PM(UTC)
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Lacy and Ball played in marquee college games, so they're receiving the spotlight right now. The guy to watch is Le'Veon Bell of Michigan State. He's 6-2 and they list him at 240-245. I think he'll probably play around 225-230. Nevertheless, he has good vision, speed, and power. He always falls forward and does a great job of going north and south. He's the bell cow this team's been lacking. He may remind Mike McCarthy of Deuce McAllister but with more athleticism, so I'm throwing his name out there.

Frankly, I think teams needing a running back are going to bypass Lacy and attempt to get Bell in round two. For example, if St. Louis loses Steven Jackson via free agency, then moving back into round two for Bell is a better strategy than reaching for a running back (Lacy) that played behind one of the best college offensive lines in recent memory.
Offline Yerko  
#30 Posted : Wednesday, February 13, 2013 12:07:34 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: porky88 Go to Quoted Post
Lacy and Ball played in marquee college games, so they're receiving the spotlight right now. The guy to watch is Le'Veon Bell of Michigan State. He's 6-2 and they list him at 240-245. I think he'll probably play around 225-230. Nevertheless, he has good vision, speed, and power. He always falls forward and does a great job of going north and south. He's the bell cow this team's been lacking. He may remind Mike McCarthy of Deuce McAllister but with more athleticism, so I'm throwing his name out there.

Frankly, I think teams needing a running back are going to bypass Lacy and attempt to get Bell in round two. For example, if St. Louis loses Steven Jackson via free agency, then moving back into round two for Bell is a better strategy than reaching for a running back (Lacy) that played behind one of the best college offensive lines in recent memory.


Porky, I liked watching this kid play for MSU but as someone stated earlier in the thread, he was a workhorse for MSU and that could potentially kill his shelf life in the NFL (maybe it doesn't).

Lacy was a reach and I was really just trying to play devil's advocate with the name. Personally, I am with a lot of this board in saying that the defensive line and offensive line is a huge priority first. With that said, a name like Le'Veon Bell comes into play with a 3rd round pick. I don't see him going any higher than 3rd round. If he is there at 3, it would be a nice addition to the Packers backfield.

I only have been making a push for a runningback in the draft because I do not think any of the guys on the roster can be a starter that can actually make a difference in the run game...even if the offensive line is fixed.
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