wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member Topic Starter
12 years ago
We are talking about 34.4% of the games. Moving the kickoff up will drop that significantly. There will be far fewer long returns and more possessions starting from the 20. My guess is it will be around 25-28%. That is not enough to justify a rule change.

Did a little research and found a couple of graphs that show it.
Beginning at the 20 means teams will score a FG about 10% of the time. A TD about 17% of the time.
These numbers are from 2009. I don't have proof but I assume they are typical.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3121/3098993205_515ff24398.jpg?v=0 

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3136/3098993225_fc5aa77dd7.jpg?v=0 

link 
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Nonstopdrivel
12 years ago

If they trow for the end zone 3 times and don't make it and they end up kicking a FG I am ok with that.

"wpr" wrote:



But this almost never happens in overtime, and that is just my problem with it.

I think that both teams should get a chance to touch the ball, but for a different reason than many other people. I certainly have a strong sense of fair play, and when my team doesn't get to touch the ball, I complain just as much as the next guy. But for me, the biggest problem with sudden death in football is the way it changes the game itself. Solid, aggressive, offensive play gets sacrificed for plodding, conservative plays designed to get the offense just inside field goal range. The touchdowns -- the most exciting event in football -- are deemphasized almost to the point of nonexistence in favor of the much less thrilling field goal. I would rather see coaches settle for field goals only as a last resort, whereas under the current overtime rules, they frequently become the primary goal. No one wants to risk the public scrutiny that comes with losing the ball due to an interception or fumble.

I would rather see a fixed overtime period instituted; whether it is five minutes or 15 is neither here nor there to me. Have the teams duke it out for the entire overtime period. If they are still tied when time expires, they either play another overtime period or the game ends in a tie -- either result would be fine with me. I have never understood what is so distasteful about ties. In many sports throughout the world, ties are a normal occurrence in league play.

I think baseball probably has the fairest "overtime" procedure, but there is no way to bring a directly analogous system to football.

By the way, for those of you who think it is "so much PC garbage" that fans would object to the flipping of a coin giving (that is, chance) giving one team a statistically significant advantage in overtime, let me ask you this: Would you be equally sanguine about the league abolishing the current rules for opening kickoffs? Would it be acceptable to you if whoever won the coin toss was allowed to receive (or kick) at the beginnings of both halves? The whole point of the current system is it largely negates the advantage of the coin flip. In a game that is supposed to be much more about strategy, strength, speed and skill than luck, what is so objectionable about that?
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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member Topic Starter
12 years ago

If they trow for the end zone 3 times and don't make it and they end up kicking a FG I am ok with that.

Originally Posted by: wpr 




But this almost never happens in overtime, and that is just my problem with it.

Originally Posted by: Nonstopdrivel 



you missed my point. I was speaking of regulation play and the current desire of coaches to "play for OT instead of the win".





By the way, for those of you who think it is "so much PC garbage" that fans would object to the flipping of a coin giving (that is, chance) giving one team a statistically significant advantage in overtime, let me ask you this: Would you be equally sanguine about the league abolishing the current rules for opening kickoffs? Would it be acceptable to you if whoever won the coin toss was allowed to receive (or kick) at the beginnings of both halves? The whole point of the current system is it largely negates the advantage of the coin flip. In a game that is supposed to be much more about strategy, strength, speed and skill than luck, what is so objectionable about that?

Originally Posted by: Nonstopdrivel 



I wouldn't object if you can tell me why a game that is 4 quarters long needs to have the same team receive the ball at the start of both haves. It is not a PC issue like saying both teams need to have possession of the ball in the only OT period is.

BTW a 5 min OT would not suffice. One team can hold on to the ball that whole time.

The emphasis seems to be on offense in the OT. GB beat Seattle on Harris' int. GB lost to Arizona on the facemask-sack-fumble of Rodgers. In OT is is incumbent upon the team's defense to get the ball for their offense. If they don't do their job don't blame it on the OT system. They are professionals too and should be held accountable. In the SB after GB got the larger lead Reggie stepped it up and shut down New England. In the recent SB, the Packer defense stepped it up and forced the fumble at the start of the 4th quarter and then got the int to end the game.

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Nonstopdrivel
12 years ago

you missed my point. I was speaking of regulation play and the current desire of coaches to "play for OT instead of the win".

Originally Posted by: wpr 


Yeah, I figured that out after I hit the Submit button, sorry.

I wouldn't object if you can tell me why a game that is 4 quarters long needs to have the same team receive the ball at the start of both haves.

Originally Posted by: wpr 


There is no "need." In both cases they are purely pragmatic or philosophical choices. I question whether the call to give both teams a chance at the ball stems from political correctness anyway. I think branding a call for equitable treatment "PC" is just a convenient and rather lazy way to disparage a position with which one does not agree.

BTW a 5 min OT would not suffice. One team can hold on to the ball that whole time.

Originally Posted by: wpr 


As I said, it doesn't matter to me how long the OT period would be. Teams have been known to hold the ball for 10 or even 11 minutes. I have advocated a full 15-minute quarter in the past.

In OT is is incumbent upon the team's defense to get the ball for their offense.

Originally Posted by: wpr 


Notice I am not directly advocating for both teams to get the ball. I am advocating for a designated time period as opposed to a sudden-death system. If one offense is good enough to keep the opposing offense off the field for the duration of the overtime period, more power to them. I don't think it would happen terribly often, though. The system would be equitable and would largely, if not entirely, eliminate the statistically significant advantage that accrues from winning the coin toss.
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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member Topic Starter
12 years ago
understood.
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vikesrule
12 years ago
I say we settle the tie game the real old fashioned way.

The two best warriors from each team meet center field for battle, winner take all.

Vikings - Packers tied at the end of regulation play.

Jared Allen kicks Clay Matthews ass.....Vikings win.
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member Topic Starter
12 years ago

I say we settle the tie game the real old fashioned way.

The two best warriors from each team meet center field for battle, winner take all.

Vikings - Packers tied at the end of regulation play.

Jared Allen kicks Clay Matthews ass.....Vikings win.

Originally Posted by: vikesrule 




VR wake up. You are having another of your wet dreams again.
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Zero2Cool
12 years ago

I say we settle the tie game the real old fashioned way.

The two best warriors from each team meet center field for battle, winner take all.

Vikings - Packers tied at the end of regulation play.

Jared Allen kicks Clay Matthews ass.....Vikings win.

Originally Posted by: vikesrule 



It's common knowledge that Clay > Mullet. [duh]
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porky88
12 years ago
The Bucs had 60 minutes to take care of business and didn't get it done. People act as if offenses receive the ball at their opponent's 20-yard line. The fact is the Buccaneers have a defense and they could have stopped Detroit. They didn't and that is why they went down.
Greg C.
12 years ago

That is such BS. They had lots of chances all game long. Score more points and it won't go into OT. With 2 minutes left and a tie game, TB had a 1-10 on Detroit's 15. They did not try to score a TD. 1 yard run to right guard. 2 yard run left end. 4 yard scramble by Freeman up middle. Kick FG.

In OT, their defense had a "chance" Man up and stop the Lions. They were the ones that failed. This concept of "let's give everyone a chance" is so much PC garbage. These guys aren't 10 year old little leaguers and we need everyone on the team to get a chance to play in the game.



You could justify just about anything with this line of reasoning. Essentially you are saying, "So what if it isn't fair, there are plenty of chances for each team to win the game." So you might as well just flip a coin to determine the winner and then everyone goes home. You seem to think that both teams deserve to lose anyway.

Also, the idea of giving each team a chance to score is not "PC garbage." It is called fairness, which is the idea behind all rules in sports. It continually amazes me that so many people endorse rules that are patently unfair.

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Zero2Cool (4h) : They do not do it for "content sake".
dfosterf (14h) : For the record, I enjoy Beast and Mucky drafts
Zero2Cool (21h) : Haha
Mucky Tundra (22h) : No time for talking! Back to work beast!
beast (23h) : You saw only 4,201 of my mocks? 🥺 I think that means you missed more than half of them 😢
dfosterf (27-Mar) : Does anyone know what Lambeau field improvements got put on hold? My guess would be for the 2025 draft
Zero2Cool (27-Mar) : It's like listen, you made 4,201 mocks, no shit.
Zero2Cool (27-Mar) : Cuz during the draft "I had them mocked there!" as if it's amazing.
Zero2Cool (27-Mar) : They're fun to do once in awhile. It's people who think they are "content" that annoy me.
dfosterf (27-Mar) : Against tbd
dfosterf (27-Mar) : Answer to your question is yes, it's a Thursday, will be the Chiefs aga
dfosterf (27-Mar) : Luckily for all concerned, I don't post them. I did one, but that was like 25 mocks ago
Zero2Cool (27-Mar) : NFL 2024 gonna start Sept 5th isn't it???
Zero2Cool (27-Mar) : Ugh... kids these days!
dfosterf (27-Mar) : I'm gonna go do some more mock draft hell instead 🤪
Zero2Cool (27-Mar) : Did we do one of those prediction threads yet for 2024 season?
dfosterf (27-Mar) : In my city, they are playing the nimby game, in order to keep some railroad tracks vs. 2 professional sports teams and a concert venue.
dfosterf (27-Mar) : And/Or a city council, of which I haven't seen a good one in a very long time
dfosterf (27-Mar) : That sounds like a Mayor, not a city.
buckeyepackfan (26-Mar) : Packers halt scheduled 80mil upgrade of stadium until lease agreement talks are restarted
Zero2Cool (26-Mar) : City of Green Bay puts Packers' Lambeau Field lease talks on hold
buckeyepackfan (26-Mar) : Packers 1 of 3 teams to vote no on new kickoff rule.
Zero2Cool (26-Mar) : Packers sign another Kicker
dfosterf (26-Mar) : Lengthy explanation at PFF if you click the link
dfosterf (26-Mar) : Kickoff rules officially changed.ngthy explan
Zero2Cool (26-Mar) : lol
Cheesey (26-Mar) : 2009? No thanks! One open heart surgery is enough!
dfosterf (26-Mar) : Good for you!
Zero2Cool (26-Mar) : Yes. That's the one.
dfosterf (26-Mar) : Is that "Lady Dugan" per chance?
dfosterf (26-Mar) : Crystal?
dfosterf (26-Mar) : Please refresh my memory
Zero2Cool (26-Mar) : Alan posts. Crystal back in my life. It's 2009 all over again! Lol
Mucky Tundra (26-Mar) : BAH GAWD! THAT'S CHEESEYS MUSIC!
Zero2Cool (25-Mar) : Gutekunst said early stages of Jordan Love contract being discussed.
Zero2Cool (25-Mar) : Shouldn't be penalized cuz official screwed up
Zero2Cool (25-Mar) : Yeah, challenge until you are incorrect twice.
Zero2Cool (25-Mar) : Fining them is the goal, per the people who made the rule anyway.
dfosterf (25-Mar) : Still waiting on the kickoff rule changes. Did hear yesterday that the touchback proposal will now be the 30 yard line, not the 35
dfosterf (25-Mar) : Probably speed of game issues with your proposal
dfosterf (25-Mar) : Hopefully the refs don't get in the habit of throwing flags on this
beast (25-Mar) : I think when it comes to Challenges should get two strikes, so unlimited challenges as long as they keep winning them, but 2 wrong then done
dfosterf (25-Mar) : Still subject to the fines etc
dfosterf (25-Mar) : Yes, I should have been more specific. Also, they are now saying it would be a 15 yard penalty. That makes more sense .
beast (25-Mar) : Simply fined in the week to follow
beast (25-Mar) : I agree with one NFL official, it'll probably be like some of the helmets hits, not really called by the refs on the field but simply fined
Zero2Cool (25-Mar) : Hip drop is not. Super confusing. Referees job is harder
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