Teams have struggled after reaching title games with new coaches

By Tom Pelissero tpelisse@greenbaypressgazette.com November 27, 2008

In 2002, the Carolina Panthers tapped Fox to turn around a team that had hit a low point. A late-season surge in Year 1 set up a highly successful second season, ending with a trip to Super Bowl XXXVIII.

But the Panthers slipped in 2004, suffering key injuries on the way to a 7-9 finish, and just like that, Fox began hearing his team had crumbled under the pressure of raised expectations.

Its hard to predict, and so sometimes, expectations are built on the outside, Fox said this week in a conference call. Then, if the team gets whacked by injuries, its disappointment and the pressure got to them.

Bill Belichick has been there, too. So has Jon Gruden, among others.

From 2000 to 2006, nine NFL coaches took a team to a conference championship game in his first or second season at the helm. The following season, only three had winning records, two made the playoffs and none made it back to a conference championship game.

Belichicks New England Patriots were defending Super Bowl champions in 2002 when they missed the postseason at 9-7. Grudens Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl that year, then went 7-9 in 2003.

More recent, Jim Mora Jr. took the Atlanta Falcons to the NFC championship game as a rookie coach in 2004 but was fired after missing the postseason the next two years. Sean Payton took the New Orleans Saints to the NFC championship game in his first season in 2006, but they slipped to 7-9 in 2007 and are on the playoff bubble this season at 6-5.

The numbers speak to the parity of a league in which nearly two-thirds of teams miss the postseason and half the playoff field turns over from one year to the next.

Thats the reality, Packers end Aaron Kampman said. Thats the tendency for us, is to box things and generalize them. Theres so many variables that go into it.

The road to the playoffs also is an uphill one this season for McCarthy, who earned a new five-year contract worth roughly $4 million a year after taking the Packers to the NFC championship game in his second season, as well as Norv Turner, who has faced questions about his job less than one year after his San Diego Chargers reached the AFC championship game.

Both teams have lost key defensive players to season-ending injuries Pro Bowl linebacker Shawne Merriman for the Chargers, defensive lineman Cullen Jenkins and middle linebacker Nick Barnett for the Packers and both teams playoff hopes would be far dimmer if they played in better divisions. The Chargers are 4-7, two games back of 6-5 Denver in the AFC West; entering Sundays game against Foxs Panthers, the Packers are 5-6, a game back of 6-5 Chicago and Minnesota in the NFC North.

Injuries is the biggest bugaboo that hits teams that struggle, said Fox, who lost star running back Stephen Davis for 14 games in 2004 because of a knee injury and had four quarterbacks win games last season.

You want to keep continuity, as it helps with a team game, and the injury bug can bite you.

The previous Packers coach to take a team to a title game in his second season was Vince Lombardi, who lost the NFL championship in 1960 and then won it the next two years. But its been 13 years since any NFL coach made a similar leap and that was Barry Switzer, who took over the two-time defending champion Dallas Cowboys, lost in the NFC championship game after the 1994 season and then won the Super Bowl in his second year.

The Panthers stayed healthy enough to return to the NFC championship game in 2005, slipping into the playoff field as a wild card and pulling consecutive upsets on the road against the New York Giants and Chicago.

Thats the type of rebound the Packers will have to aim for if they cant complete a comeback to win the division this season. But with five games to go, including a visit to Chicago on Dec. 22, a more immediate rebound remains the focus.

The first time I stood in front of our football team, I told them their biggest challenge here in Green Bay will be handling success, McCarthy said. And its not only the ability of the individuals to handle success, whether its a new contract or recognition or having a winning season its really the challenges of how people now look at you and how they gun for you and all the different angles these challenges can come at you with. Its part of our business.

We had a successful year last year, and things havent gone as great as wed like up to this point. But thats something that you talk about and you try to prepare for. Its part of the National Football League.